mahk_webstah Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Think of this as a two-part wnter. We had a few weeks of it and now we are in the 2nd half of a long jan thaw. Winter restarts next week and goes uuntil mid or late feb. then a pause and then maybe a grand finale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Putting lip stick on a pig that pushes its transition date back each week or two is not end of world to me I just want to be able to drive 2.5 hrs north and hit a snow storm what are we up to as far as SNE rainstorms go...from the time the pattern was very good but (the calendar was a month early) to couple weeks ago when we had bad luck to now when the pattern is garbage but active w cutters. 7, 8, 9? Impressive in reality ORH still at .5 snow for December . Maybe they sneak in 2” with 5-6” QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 I thought the long range improved last night on the 0z run but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Putting lip stick on a pig that pushes its transition date back each week or two is not end of world to me I just want to be able to drive 2.5 hrs north and hit a snow storm what are we up to as far as SNE rainstorms go...from the time the pattern was very good but (the calendar was a month early) to couple weeks ago when we had bad luck to now when the pattern is garbage but active w cutters. 7, 8, 9? Impressive in reality ORH still at .5 snow for December . Maybe they sneak in 2” with 5-6” QPF No need for that--just head to the highlands of Methuen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: I thought the long range improved last night on the 0z run but what do I know? Weenies gonna ween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 I see the melt index has been raised to elevated and i expect it to hit the severe range in the next 10 days if our next events are in liquid form instead of the white variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Oh for sure...peeps are creeping closer to the Edge with each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I see the melt index has been raised to elevated and i expect it to hit the severe range in the next 10 days if our next events are in liquid form instead of the white variety. With at least 2 cutters on the way and more 50s/60s, it's going to go nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Through 12/22: BOS: +1.4 ORH: 0 BDL: -0.3 PVD: -0.1 Are there issues with the Bos thermometer also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Glad we don’t live in NJ with 50’s and 60’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: With at least 2 cutters on the way and more 50s/60s, it's going to go nuclear. Wait for it, The winter cancel post are not far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: With at least 2 cutters on the way and more 50s/60s, it's going to go nuclear. The next cutter has more resistance to warm sectoring. I wouldn’t be surprised if NNE ends up more frozen than liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Putting lip stick on a pig that pushes its transition date back each week or two is not end of world to me I just want to be able to drive 2.5 hrs north and hit a snow storm what are we up to as far as SNE rainstorms go...from the time the pattern was very good but (the calendar was a month early) to couple weeks ago when we had bad luck to now when the pattern is garbage but active w cutters. 7, 8, 9? Impressive in reality ORH still at .5 snow for December . Maybe they sneak in 2” with 5-6” QPF Not sure where you got 0.5" from for ORH. They are still at a trace. But that will probably be over by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: The next cutter has more resistance to warm sectoring. I wouldn’t be surprised if NNE ends up more frozen than liquid. NNE ski resorts hopefully are following blizz’s forecasts. Two more cutters for them will bring out reindeer sweaters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not sure where you got 0.5" from for ORH. They are still at a trace. But that will probably be over by tomorrow morning. I thought you had said .5 unless that was the futility mark that is worth following Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Weenies gonna ween. There's a small part of me that wants to see the next 3 systems fail just to see all the whiners on here go nuclear. It's kind of funny sometimes. You would think after years (sometimes decades) on the forums, some would eventually grasp the concept of probabilistic forecasting....but it's like watching the hamster on the wheel in reality. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not sure where you got 0.5" from for ORH. They are still at a trace. But that will probably be over by tomorrow morning. The experienced difference between a trace and .5" over the course of the month is staggering. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: I thought you had said .5 unless that was the futility mark that is worth following Nope. Trace is the futility record set in 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nope. Trace is the futility record set in 1999. If that "unofficial" though? i.e. one of the months that they are missing data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: If that "unofficial" though? i.e. one of the months that they are missing data? Yes it is. I feel like there may have been another trace back during thy Decembers of yore when the oxen got stuck in the mud. I'd have to double check. Otherwise the official record would be 0.3" in 2011. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The experienced difference between a trace and .5" over the course of the month is staggering. The pros are getting agitated and part of that is no snow and nothing on horizon. They project their frustrations on “weenies”. Happens as often as weenie melts but in all seriousness, if people had nothing to fall back on but Snow for happiness that’s an issue. Thank goodness for milfs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: The pros are getting agitated and part of that is no snow and nothing on horizon. They project their frustrations on “weenies”. Happens as often as weenie melts lol im a stickler for accurate snowfall climo regardless of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 There's a small part of me that wants to see the next 3 systems fail just to see all the whiners on here go nuclear. It's kind of funny sometimes. You would think after years (sometimes decades) on the forums, some would eventually grasp the concept of probabilistic forecasting....but it's like watching the hamster on the wheel in reality. You forgot to throw in the mid Atlantic gets spanked system somewhere in between the cutters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, Hazey said: You forgot to throw in the mid Atlantic gets spanked system somewhere in between the cutters. Yeah, The ones that will really get the lines going on the ledge is when you get a couple cutters then the next two are suppressed into the Mid Atlantic region while we feverishly huff exhaust up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's a small part of me that wants to see the next 3 systems fail just to see all the whiners on here go nuclear. It's kind of funny sometimes. You would think after years (sometimes decades) on the forums, some would eventually grasp the concept of probabilistic forecasting....but it's like watching the hamster on the wheel in reality. That aspect has been more fun for me as I get older. Just sitting back and watching these guys get unhinged while it’s 55 and rain makes it worth it. There’s nothing more fun than dropping a steaming pile of cutter dung into these threads whenever weenies think a change is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Putting lip stick on a pig that pushes its transition date back each week or two is not end of world to me I just want to be able to drive 2.5 hrs north and hit a snow storm what are we up to as far as SNE rainstorms go...from the time the pattern was very good but (the calendar was a month early) to couple weeks ago when we had bad luck to now when the pattern is garbage but active w cutters. 7, 8, 9? Impressive in reality ORH still at .5 snow for December . Maybe they sneak in 2” with 5-6” QPF Where is this transition push back crap coming from? Its the unrealistic and misinformed perceptions that are pushed. The anticipated seasonal progression has been the same since last fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Some of us have been trying to warn of this since all of the December 2002, 2009 crap began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where is this transition push back crap coming from? Its the unrealistic and misinformed perceptions that are pushed. The anticipated seasonal progression has been the same since last fall. The problem is people see "pattern change" and automatically assume it's February 2015 or January 2011. It has become like pulling teeth to try and explain that a pattern change from an AK vortex to a -EPO where the cold dumps west first is a difference for the better but it still leaves us plenty susceptible to cutters...we can score in the new pattern but we're completely at the mercy of the atmospheric chaos in the northern stream. We can explain it a million times but as soon as that cutter shows up, there's always a vocal contingent that gets unhinged. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That aspect has been more fun for me as I get older. Just sitting back and watching these guys get unhinged while it’s 55 and rain makes it worth it. There’s nothing more fun than dropping a steaming pile of cutter dung into these threads whenever weenies think a change is coming. Probably one of your better traits besides the obvious meteorological background you possess is your skill level in the art of fanning the flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 Anybody have any thoughts on the eruption of Krakatoa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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