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J.Spin

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About J.Spin

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  • Website URL
    http://www.JandEproductions.com

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KMPV
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Waterbury, VT
  • Interests
    Skiing, Snow, Snowboarding, Outdoors, Winter Weather, Photography

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  1. J.Spin

    What Are Your AMWX/ Eastern, etc. Snow Stats?

    So I looked into this one when I had a moment, first checking on when there was at least snow on the ground for the three holidays in the same season. Having snow on the ground for Thanksgiving is fairly common, with an occurrence of 61.5% in my data set. Snow on the ground for Christmas is certainly the norm (>90%), with only the very aberrant 2015-2016 season not having snow until the 28th of December. Snow on the ground at Easter is running at 46.1%, so a bit lower than Thanksgiving. Checking for where things line up gives five seasons: 2007-2008, 2013-2014, 2014-2015, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019 with snow on the ground for all three holidays in my 13-year data set. That’s an occurrence of 38.5%. Having actual accumulating snowfall on those holidays is definitely going to be a rare bird, at least based on what I’ve seen in my data thus far. The toughest one appears to be Easter. There’s only one Easter (2014-2015) with accumulating snowfall on the actual holiday in my data set, so that’s an occurrence of 7.7%. It’s much easier to get snowfall on Thanksgiving. That’s a rather snowy time of year around here, with close to a 50/50 chance (46.1%) of having accumulating snowfall on the day. All things being equal, Christmas should probably be the strongest contender for having snowfall on the holiday, but there have also been a number of holiday periods in recent years that have been rather blasé with respect to winter weather. In any event, Christmas still does appear to come out on top with a snowfall occurrence of 53.8%. Assuming no correlation between the occurrences (I guess there could be a bit between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but Easter is so far from those two that it’s likely none), the odds of getting snowfall on all three holidays in a season is around 2% for our site. I’m not sure what the chances are at other sites, but it’s pretty low here. So did an occurrence of accumulating snowfall on Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Easter in a single season pop up in my 13-year data set? No. The closest contender was, not surprisingly, 2014-2015 – the only season where we had snowfall on Easter itself. That season even had snowfall on Thanksgiving, but ironically, it was Christmas that season that didn’t have any snowfall.
  2. J.Spin

    What Are Your AMWX/ Eastern, etc. Snow Stats?

    That holiday one is probably the only snow-related one in your list that I don’t typically track – it’s a bit tougher to track easily because the dates of Thanksgiving and Easter vary each year. That will be fun to look into though – I’m interested to see if it’s happened at our site. As for other stats, Tamarack and I have a million of them (I don’t track temperatures, but I’ve added a number of snow stats through the years as I learn about them from Tamarack). We’ve been discussing them in the NNE thread over the past few weeks as we often do at the end of the season. Tamarack will likely enjoy this thread as well though, he loves weather stats. Here are some of the snow-related stats that I track: October snowfall November snowfall December snowfall January snowfall February snowfall March snowfall April snowfall May snowfall Total season snowfall Number of storms Number of ≥6” storms Number of ≥10” storms Number of ≥12” storms Number of ≥15” storms Number of ≥18” storms Number of ≥20” storms Number of ≥24” storms Average inches of snowfall per storm Largest snowstorm Starting date of largest snowstorm Max snow depth Date of max snow depth Snow depth days Earliest frozen precipitation Earliest accumulating snowfall Start of continuous snowpack Latest accumulating snowfall Latest frozen precipitation Last day of continuous snow at stake Last day of continuous snow in yard Days with continuous snow at stake Days in yard continuous snowpack season Days in yard snowfall season Total liquid during accumulating snowfall season Snow+Sleet L.E. during accumulating snowfall season Total Snow/Total Water (Snow/Water Ratio) Average water content of all precipitation Total Snow/Snow+Sleet L.E. (Snow/Water Ratio) Average water content of snow/sleet Days with trace snowfall or greater Snowfall by date Snowpack depth by date
  3. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    That’s impressive considering we’re just about at the solstice, and that’s not even a high elevation spot. You can even see how the grasses in the area are just waking up as the snow melts back.
  4. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    That’s absolutely my thinking. This past season was certainly strong on total snowfall, but even in my archive of only 13 seasons, it still comes in third. The stats speak to it being a notch down from the very top as well – it’s right at 1 S.D. above the mean, putting it in the top 15-20% of seasons, but certainly not top 5-10%. A strong December or February would likely have pushed it into that upper echelon. So it’s probably in that A/A- range with respect to snowfall, but I’d say it’s got to get that bump to a straight A because it now leads my stats in so many snow-related categories, and in some cases by a large margin: Snow-Depth Days (SDD) blew every other season out of the water and was a very impressive 1.75 S.D. above the mean. That puts it in the top 4-5% of seasons for that parameter. The start of the continuous winter snowpack on November 10th was again tops in the database and 1.67 S.D. ahead of the mean. That puts the season in the top 4-5% of seasons for that parameter as well. The duration of the snowpack at 163 days was tops in the data set and 1.4 S.D. above the mean, putting it in the top 10% of seasons. The 64 accumulating winter storms we had here this past season easily puts it easily in first place. That’s 1.72 S.D. above the mean and means it’s in the top 4-5% of seasons. I recorded 114 days with a trace or more of snowfall this season. I guess that shouldn’t be too surprising with the high number of storms we had, but I felt like we’ve had “snow-globier” winters, so it wasn’t immediately obvious to me. In any case, this season was well in first place for that parameter, 1.51 S.D. above the mean and in the top 10% of winters. So despite being third place with respect to overall snowfall, this season topped the stats in a number of related categories, and it’s hard to not give it the bump to the straight A. I agree, especially if snowfall, the holiday season, and occurrence of mixed precipitation systems are factored in, that this season shouldn’t get to the A+ level. I’m guessing A+ would be something like 2000-2001? I know it was pretty solid from living it and skiing it and seeing the Mansfield snowpack data for the season (green trace in the plot below), even if I wasn’t tracking the winter weather here or paying nearly as close attention to it as I do now. I’m assuming 1968-1969 would also qualify? I wasn’t alive then, but I’ve heard great things and the Mansfield depth plot (orange trace in the plot below) sort of speaks for itself. At least at our site, 2007-2008 would probably get some consideration for the A+ category because it tops all seasons for snowfall and broke the 200” barrier here. Its Mansfield snowpack data (red trace in the plot below) certainly doesn’t crush the others, but, I seem to recall it being very consistent with the snowfall and we were right in the storm track, even if we did get some mixed events. That consistency I remember, as well as a strong December (almost 70” of snow here) and holiday season sort of give it a bit of consideration for me.
  5. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    I was looking at one of my reports and followed a link to the NNE thread, eventually running into the post above from PF. You can see from PF’s comment why I was just a bit hesitant to immediately lock in a grade of “A” for the season. PF is pretty objective, so when he says that December was “bad”, that certainly gives one pause. It can be tough to think back and factor in some of those slower periods from early in the season, especially when the overall tenor was decent, but it shows how helpful the NNE thread can be in an archival sense.
  6. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    I honestly can’t see anything less than something in the A range either. I still like to leave the option open though because I don’t track the rain events that don’t give any accumulation, so I don’t have a great record of those down periods. (The skiing is usually poorer at that point, so it’s a chance to check out and get other stuff done anyway) A time that does come to mind though is a long stretch around the holiday period. Between December 18th and January 5th I skied once. The lack of skiing wasn’t due to family/personal/work obligations or anything like that, it had to be due to questionable snow conditions. That’s 17 days, more than half a month, with just a single day of skiing, and it spans the entire holiday break when I was off from work. As I look back at my report from December 27th, it actually took four storms (they were small) to get the snow back to the point where I considered it worth venturing out. The final third of December had just a half foot of snow at our site, which is definitely lean for our area. It’s not as if the snowpack disappeared or anything, but I’m sure it had picked up a serious crust or something. For me, snowfall is the biggest factor in grading, and with two other seasons already having more snowfall than this past one, that kind of puts an A+ off the table. Periods like the one above certainly put a chink in the armor as well. Snowpack does matter though, and it was so good (and so early) this season that it’s hard to see the grade going below a straight A.
  7. J.Spin

    June 2019 Discussion

    LOL, I’m not sure what year the incessant heat trolling started, but it’s seems to be pretty much a given at this point. I guess DIT adding a second account to pile it on was sort of new this year, but it still seems like the same pointless exercise. Yes… we get it already – the forum needs to be constantly told of the impending heat and humidity, and then due to the stochastic nature of weather, it actually happens 5 to 10 percent of the time. Duh.
  8. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    Indeed, that was a really solid stretch of snow. The fact that the snowfall was backed up by such an impressive snowpack made it even more notable. As Tamarack and I have been discussing, it was a really good winter for snowpack, with the coverage running 163 continuous days here. That’s even more than 5 months. I’ll have to put together some graphics in that area at some point Actually, as I was writing that I realized that I hadn’t even thought about the grading thing yet, but the winter is likely to be somewhere in the “A” range when all is said and done. It’s not immediately a slam dunk because we certainly did have our share of mixed storms, rain etc., but factoring in almost 200” of snow, 5 to 6 months of continuous snowpack that contained over 10” of liquid in it at one point, and being hit by 64 storms has to push the score pretty high.
  9. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    I’ve generated this season’s graph of monthly snowfall for our site. January immediately jumps out of course – the snowfall was, not surprisingly, above average, and it was certainly a notable contributor to the overall above average snowfall for the season. What’s not obvious from the graph is that it was the first above average January for snowfall here in eight seasons. So, I guess one could say we were due for a recovery at some point. Another interesting point of note is that snowfall in November was higher than it was in December, February, or March. That’s certainly not the norm. It speaks to the strong November we had, but it also indicates that snowfall wasn’t quite there in those other months. March was actually about average, but December and February, certainly two of our strongest snowfall months here, had surprisingly low snowfall for such a strong season.
  10. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    For that one, I simply do last date of continuous snowpack without the 1” qualifier, in line with the methodology I discussed in my previous post, but with that system the mean date is 4/15, the median is 4/20, and the S.D. is 11 days.
  11. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    Getting back to the post-winter data analysis, I do track the seasonal maximum snowpack depth. For our site during my period of record it’s got a mean of 27.1”, a median of 26.0”, and 8.4” is the S.D. That seems fairly similar to the values you reported, although I suspect the water content in the snowpack on those days would be higher at your site. Often the peak snowpack depth at our site each season will be attained from being topped off by some dry upslope snow on the back side of a storm cycle. This year I added the dates for when the max snowpack depth occurred each season, and they range from as early as 12/30 (19.0”) in the 2012-2013 season to as late as 3/16 (29.5”) in the 2016-2017 season. It’s amazing to the think of peak snowpack depth happening in December, but checking that season, December was the snowiest month. It was only modestly above average with 49.5” of snow, but I see that January and February were both notably below average with roughly that same amount (53.3”) combined. March snowfall was roughly average at 30.8”, but it just wasn’t enough to push the snowpack past that December peak.
  12. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    Fantastic pic PF. I’m sure you’ve zoomed in and looked at that gorgeous cirque up top there in the middle – oh man does it look like it would provide some beautiful turns. The only issue I can see is access, at least from the side that’s shown. That’s how it was when we lived in Montana – the valleys were ~4,000’ and the peaks were 9,000’ – 10,000’. You could easily ski well into the summer if you wanted to, as long as you were willing to hike 4,000’+ and however many miles to get to the terrain. As neat as it is to have potentially skiable snow “relatively” close, it’s just not that practical for a typical day trip though. Hiking 4,000’ – 6,000’ of vertical and several miles is already a beefy hike on its own, not to mention hoofing it with skis, ski boots, and other ski gear. With all that said, it almost looks like there’s some sort of structure or something at the ridge of the cirque? Maybe access isn’t as difficult from the back side?
  13. J.Spin

    The 2018-2019 Ski Season Thread

    Lava, there are some constraints such as not being able to drive up to the snowfields until the road is actually open, and the ski patrollers in Tuckerman Ravine only provide avalanche reports and potential aid to a certain point in the spring, but there are no official opening or closing dates for the skiing or anything like that. You can hike to any of it, and you’re on your own with respect to avalanche conditions, the constant issue of Mt. Washington’s potent weather, and every other standard big mountain danger that’s always present. As you can see in the web cam image from yesterday, there’s still plenty of snow in the main summit snowfield (just to the right of the summit) and there are other snowfields still present. There’s still lots of snow in Tuckerman Ravine, which is on the left side of the image. The summit snowfields usually melt out at some point in June, and as Angus said, you can often find snow in the ravine to July. Over the past decade we’re done a lot of driving trips up to the snowfields because the boys haven’t been old enough to easily do the hike to Tuckerman Ravine. They’re certainly capable of making the ascent now, but they often have soccer and other things this time of year, so fitting it in can be a challenge. Even still, my wife and I love making trips up to the snowfields because there are typically far fewer people than in the ravine. The main snowfield typically has some other skiers, but if you pick one of the smaller snowfields you can literally have the whole thing to yourself and it’s essentially your own private ski area: One of the biggest challenges in simply getting one of those pristine spring days when the mountain is clear and without the typical big winds. This weekend actually offers a really nice window, and I bet we’d be going if we didn’t have some graduation and soccer things going on.
  14. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    I know PF has been commenting on our rainfall in this neck of the woods lately because it’s been on the wet side, but I haven’t looked at the regional rainfall maps to see the details throughout NNE. It looks like there’s quite the variability though based on your numbers, so it will be interesting to see a regional rainfall map at some point.
  15. J.Spin

    NNE Warm Season Thread

    Yes, I just checked – 10.39” through today and almost 30” for the calendar year. This year’s liquid contributed to over 130” of snow and a good supply of moisture to start the growing season. It looks like we’ve got an extended stretch of sunny, pleasant weather to enjoy now as we head through the weekend.
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