J.Spin

I saw your post PF, so I looked through the snow output on a few recent runs. I got a kick out of this one from the FV3 that I’m guessing you also must have tinkered with in your basement. It sure makes you think that the FV3 gets the concept of upslope in the Northern Greens:

You professionals definitely have it tough in this weird forum format. The problem is that even threads like this aren’t just for data dissemination and discussion, there are these weird social club and weather anxiety therapy components as well as social media-tier drive-by weenie comments that are allowed. My solution would be to give the weenies immutable probabilistic forecast numbers and be done with it so they couldn’t twist all the words around. But, that’s not really how things work around here, nor do I get the impression that it’s actually what they want to hear.

I don’t really follow the temperatures, since for me what really matters is if it’s cold enough to get some snow, but I think they’ve been below average based on the numbers I see PF mention. December snowfall has been just about right on track for average at our place (mean December snowfall through today is 14.0” and we’ve had 14.1” for the month so far). Snowpack is at 10”, which is only about 3” above average, thus things are pretty close there as well. So really, it’s been a pretty typical December in the snowfall/snowpack department, we’re just way ahead of the game because of an extra 20” of snow in November. That’s evident in the season snowfall – we’re at 51.1” of snowfall, which is a typical place to be at the end of December, not the middle of the month.

Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.05” L.E. Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0 Snow Density: 2.5% H2O Temperature: 7.9 F Sky: Mostly Clear Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

I added in some of the discussion I saw last night about the current system, it looked like the forecaster was sort of debating with him/herself as they weighed things, although there could have been more discussion behind the scenes and previous elements of the discussion that they were addressing. I thought they were cursing the Froude Values at one point, but I think it was a typo. It says the near term was “RSD” in the attributes at the bottom. Anyway, great stuff on aspects of the current system. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 703 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 646 PM EST Tuesday...Compact upper shortwaves moving across Lake Champlain during the winter along with surface boundary and moisture is never what the synoptic models suggest. Yes...some snow showers are expected but history has sown that these scenarios lead to more than we bargained for. [email protected] FROUDE values <0.5 with WNW flow...shortwave and surface boundary favorable. Deep moisture is lacking but atmosphere is gradually moistening with approaching shortwave/front and with time should moisten. In fact...18z FROUDE has just arrived and supported this previous thinking with greater moisture and actually spitting out QPF, thus feel rather confident in the changes that have been made. Here we go...as the shortwave and boundary move into Champlan vly by 03-04z we should see an enhancement in activity over the lake and across Northern Champlain Vly...this should continue til 07-08z then subside but stay locked in the mountains thru 12z. I didn`t go gang busters with snowfall amounts but definitely increased to be noticeable. In the immediate Northrn Champlain Vly we could see an inch or so and the western slope communites like underhill/cambridge could witness 2-3 inches with 4 inches along the mountains. Time will tell.

Event totals: 1.2” Snow/0.04” L.E. It was actually thanks to you posting that I was aware of a couple of our recent stealthy snow events, but this one I noticed because I was out yesterday evening. Being finals week, I was giving a late exam yesterday and left UVM around 8 PM or so. Flakes were just starting to appear in Burlington, and the snowfall really ramped up as I headed to Williston and stopped in for an errand at the Taft Corners area. The roads were already taking on a coating of snow there, but the snowfall just tapered off to nothing as I dropped down into the center of Richmond. The snow started to pick up as I approached Jonesville, and in line with the usual trend I figured it would just continue to intensify all the way to the house, but it totally stopped by the time I reached Bolton. Either the storm was still moving in, or the Froude was on the low side I guess (there was some cool discussion about that in the BTV AFD as the system moved into the area). It really wasn’t until midnight or so that the snow began to pick up at our place, and we had some huge flakes up to 1” for a bit there. Flakes were small at observations time this morning, but picked up later so we’ve had some additional accumulation now. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.2 inches New Liquid: 0.04 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 30.0 Snow Density: 3.3% H2O Temperature: 21.2 F Sky: Light Snow (1-3 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

I did LOL a bit when I saw the statement because NW winds mean something more along the lines of “See ya… sunshine.”, or “See ya… whatever is in the way of heading up to the mountain”.

Indeed the powder is staying great with these temperatures, so it’s really just skiers chewing things up at this point. I was back up at Bolton yesterday afternoon for an outing with the family, and the couple of additional inches of fluff nicely topped things off. It wasn’t going to reset areas that had already been tracked of course, but it did put a new layer on everything, and the powder depth seems to be staying right around the 1-foot mark in areas not affected by wind etc. Spending time at both Stowe and Bolton each season, we do notice how the lack of high-speed lifts and lower overall skier numbers lets the powder last a lot longer at Bolton. You don’t get that big Mansfield vert, but it’s hard to beat the high snowfall/low key vibe there. A few shots from yesterday afternoon’s outing:

Event totals: 0.2” Snow/Trace L.E. Based on the BTV NWS forecast discussion I’m attributing the snow from last night into today to the weak cold front passing through the area. There was very light snowfall evident through much of the Winooski Valley westward until about Richmond this morning, and the sky began to clear from that point on. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 24.3 F Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (4-12 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

I was up at the mountain yesterday morning for what was actually Bolton Valley’s first “official” day of the season, and can pass along a quick report and some pictures. Temperatures were cold to start, with single digits F, and then it was well up into the teens F by the time I left around midday. The settled powder depths we found were just about a foot everywhere, so I suspect the 14 inches they’re reported over the week is a bit on the low side, but it could depend where during the settling cycles they made their measurements. Bottomless powder turns were available on moderate and low angle terrain, but anything with a black diamond pitch or more, you’d still be hitting the subsurface at times because there just wasn’t enough liquid equivalent to get to that level. Skiing was still fine on those steeper pitches, but mid and low-angle stuff was really sweet. I took a trip up through one of the main single family home neighborhoods up there, which I think goes up to around 2,400’, and they are loaded with snow. The snowpack is probably only about two feet or so, but after the addition of this week’s fluffy snow you can see a lot of spots where it’s just piling up on roof lines, roof snow is merging with the ground snow piles, etc. I’ve got a few images from the day below, and the full report is available at our website.

Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.01” L.E. I didn’t know about the snow falling last night until I saw PF’s post with the radar image, but I caught it in time to make some 12:00 A.M. observations. We’ve already had some fluffy rounds of snow this season, but indeed last night’s snowfall was right up there. Sometimes you can get a sense of the flake structure by the rate at which the snow fall through the air, and last night that rate was slooooooow. I’ve had some cores this season where I could only pull a trace of liquid, so didn’t calculate the snow to liquid ratio, but last night’s analysis (0.88 mL of liquid from a 1.1” core) did actually round to 0.01” of liquid and allow for a calculation. It’s the highest ratio I’ve seen so far this season. Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 1.1 inches New Liquid: 0.01 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 110.0 Snow Density: 0.9% H2O Temperature: 14.7 F Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.2 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 12.9 F Sky: Flurries Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Event totals: 2.8” Snow/0.10” L.E. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.1 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: -2.9 F Sky: Partly Cloudy Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

Yeah, Coastal is right, you don’t have to do anything with it, and aside from measuring it and coring it… I don’t. It was the same when we lived out in the Rockies in Montana, people know that with this kind of dry snow you can just drive over it and pack it down instead of wasting time constantly trying to clear it, because it really doesn’t offer enough substance or resistance to impede driving, walking, etc. Since our driveway is gravel, I want to leave a certain amount of snow base on it anyway for the snow blower. I really only need to clear the driveway after more substantial storms. This early season has been a great example – we’ve had almost 50 inches of snow, and I’ve only had to clear the driveway for one storm, Winter Storm Bruce, which brought over two inches of liquid equivalent. Another factor that’s not required, but is incredibly practical in this kind of environment, is having a garage. Having an attached garage was an absolute must when we were looking for a place around here, and it makes total sense in this type of environment where you have a long winter and potentially over 100 days with snowfall. It’s sort of ironic I guess, but the only time I actually need to get out a snow brush or ice scraper to clean snow off my car is when I park somewhere else… not at my place. Even if you don’t have a garage, you can just turn on your windshield wipers and that snow is gone, or don’t – as soon as you drive a few feet the snow typically just blows away from all the windows. People often think that living in this type of environment just means a lot of “nuisance snow”, but for the most part it’s fairly low maintenance eye candy.

Event totals: 2.7” Snow/0.10” L.E. We picked up an additional 0.4” of extremely dry fluff with this morning’s activity, and there’s still a bit of light snowfall around this evening that I’m attributing to the same system. There do appear to be chances for light snow continuing through the weekend and into next week: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 329 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A few weak disturbances will bring chances for light snow showers over the weekend and early next week, as well as reinforcing shots of below normal temperatures. Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.4 inches New Liquid: Trace Temperature: 20.1 F Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

With the current system winding down, I took a look at the snowfall totals stand since the warm section of Winter Storm Carter over the weekend. For the resorts that have them available, I took the 7-day totals, which should be fairly representative of what’s fallen atop the old base. Here’s the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas along the spine: Jay Peak: 16” Smuggler’s Notch: 21” Stowe: 20” Bolton Valley: 12” Pico: 7” Killington: 7” Bromley: 9” A quick check on the modeling suggests the next system would be coming through the area tomorrow night. In the BTV NWS AFD it’s described as a weak clipper low/upper shortwave, with accumulations expected to be fairly light. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 631 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 617 AM EST Friday...Saturday will start out with sunshine, but clouds will increase through the afternoon as a weak clipper low/upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. Snow showers will spread in from the west Saturday afternoon ahead of this system, but limited moisture and weak forcing will keep daytime snow accumulation light. Saturday`s highs will once again be well below normal, in the upper teens to mid 20s. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 242 AM EST Friday...Lingering snow showers are expected across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains Saturday night with the axis of the upper level trough moving through the region. As the trough moves through, moisture will begin to decrease pretty rapidly which will help limit the areal coverage and intensity of any lingering snow showers.