J.Spin

Excellent stuff PF – this “snowliage” period is one of my favorites around here. It looks like there’s more potential this week - lots of flakes in the Mansfield point forecast, so it should be fun to see what happens in the coming days.

Thanks, I think it does a nice job of capturing the snow line in the afternoon around here, as well as the somewhat past peak state of the local foliage. There’s still some color out there, but we’ve clearly lost a lot of leaves at this point.

After seeing that the elevations were still socked in this morning, I gave the clouds some time to think about clearing a bit, and then headed out in the neighborhood to see what snow might be visible. Indeed the cloud ceiling had risen by about another 2,000’ by this afternoon and I was able to catch Camel’s Hump as the clouds had just about broken away. The snow line at that point looked to be around 3,000’.

Tip inquired about the typical date of first snowfall on Mansfield it in the general thread, and I’ve been somewhat curious as well, so I just ran the numbers on the Mt. Mansfield Co-Op data from 1954. There are a couple of seasons not included in the analysis because of gaps in the data collection, but there are still 62 seasons in the data set that should be providing accurate data barring any other observations issues. The data suggest this is a few days on the late side of the mean for first accumulating snow, but overall quite typical: Date of 1st Accumulating Snow at Mt. Mansfield, VT Co-Op Station: Mean: 10/10 Median: 10/8 Mode: 10/17 S.D.: 15 days n: 62 Earliest: 8/28/1986 Latest: 11/17/1985

Now it's time...

I’ve been somewhat curious as well, so I just rain the numbers on the Mt. Mansfield Co-Op data from 1954. There are a couple of seasons not included in the analysis because of gaps in the data collection, but there are still 62 seasons in the data set that should be providing accurate data barring any other observations issues. The data suggest this is a few days on the late side of the mean for first accumulating snow, but overall quite typical: Date of 1st Accumulating Snow at Mt. Mansfield, VT Co-Op Station: Mean: 10/10 Median: 10/8 Mode: 10/17 S.D.: 15 days N: 62 Earliest: 8/28/1986 Latest: 11/17/1985

Per PF’s comment about some elevation snow in the area, I popped out for a walk in our neighborhood to check out the views. The cloud ceiling in the 2,000’ peaks to our south is in 2,000’ to 2,500’ range, and I didn’t see anything there, and Camel’s Hump is well socked in with a ceiling around 2,000’, so no accumulations to report below that point. A shower came through while I was out, which I’m sure is flakes up high based on the temperatures. There’s some potential clearing later today, so hopefully some views will open up.

We don’t want to get too crazy and jump the gun here. It sounds like there’s at least some snow, but PF is still in investigation mode, so we hold the #nice in our pocket for now.

Nice PF – hopefully the first report of October snow in the Greens on our web page, keep us posted!

LOL, well, as the forecast suggests that we teeter on the verge of the holy season, you know this discussion has to be passed along. Here’s to a season full of many, many snowy PF pics! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1035 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 347 PM EDT Thursday...Days 4 thru 7 will feature a mid/upper level trof across the ne conus with a series of fronts in the progressive northwest flow aloft. These front will contain limited moisture as the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico will be closed for business, but periods of below normal temps are likely. Have continued to mention high chc pops on Monday/Monday Night as GFS/ECMWF are advertising short wave energy/mid level moisture and sfc cold front crossing our fa. Still some timing differences, but expect a 2 to 4 hour window of mainly rain showers, before ending as a period of mtn snow showers on Monday Night/Tuesday Morning. Once again, still some uncertainty on timing of low level caa and amount of leftover moisture to produce a light accumulating snowfall in the mountains. A light dusting is possible near summits and I look forward to pics from the picnic tables on Mt Mansfield from PF.

The orographics around here definitely help those first snows to happen earlier and more frequently – the chance of October snow on Mansfield seems to run at about 90%, and it’s common to have multiple snow events each October, not just one (for example, Oct 2017 had three, Oct 2016 had two, Oct 2015 had two, Oct 2014 had four, etc.) I know you’d commented that seeing mention of flakes in the forecast didn’t mean much, but what I’m seeing in our point forecast is definitely more than the usual first hints – starting Monday night, flakes are in our valley forecast for the next six periods, right through Thursday. We’ll see if that changes of course, but typically we’ll get mention of snow just in the mountain forecasts, and we’ll get those first flakes in the mountain valleys thanks to squalls combining with orographics helping to bring the snow levels way down along the spine. I haven’t looked into the Mansfield data to pull out the numbers, but for here in the valley our mean date for first frozen/trace is October 20th, and for accumulation it’s October 27th. The mean first accumulating snow for Mansfield is probably in that mid-October range like you suggest.

Well, the calendar has been saying it’s time, multiple runs of various models have been suggesting it, and now the BTV NWS forecast discussion is starting to mention it: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...As of 401 AM EDT Tuesday...Over the weekend the big "highlight" is that we`ll be cooler on Friday into Saturday. The cooler temps should be cold enough that higher elevation locations should see a dusting of snow as an upper level trough brings a chance of showers/flurries depending on elevation both Saturday and Sunday. Actually, modeling suggests multiple chance for snow in the next couple of weeks, at least as it stands now. Checking on last October, my records show three rounds of snow, one on the 16th, a second on the 27th, and then one more on the 31st. We're definitely coming up fast now on that part of the season.

Thanks Kevin, as always, we appreciate this great resource you’ve put together. I just checked, and things seem to be working on my end. We’re into October now, which is typically our first month for accumulating snow (seems to be close to 70% of seasons based on my data), so hopefully it won’t be too long before we’ll have something to put in the table.

I can’t figure out what’s going on here - did someone hack your account?

We headed over the App Gap today and the foliage was fantastic, although there are already some spots that are past peak. Contrast that to when we dropped down into Addison County in the Champlain Valley – there was so much green that it felt as if we were back to summer. There are definitely some pockets of great color down in the valley as well, but it’s most definitely still pre-peak.