J.Spin

I was just looking through the latest BTV NWS AFD, and saw one of their usual nice nods to the skiers and riders: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 327 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... For individuals looking to earn some early season turns in late Oct, on an old pair of rock skis or snowboard, I recommend the higher trrn across the southern Green Mountains above 2000 feet on Friday.

2011-2012 was pretty poor at our site with only 115.3” of snow, which is 1.1 S.D. below the mean. That puts it near the bottom 10% of seasons with respect to snowfall.

Roger that – I just took that 185” and rounded it down a smidge to a very round 180”, since I figured things might drop off a bit with elevation (but not really sure how much). Ginx indicated “within” 15%, and I figured he meant 15% on the low end, but maybe not, so I just sort of went roughly down the middle with the 180”. Using 15% on the high end of 185” would be an average of ~213”, which would be pretty impressive. That would be a greater annual snowfall average than just about every ski resort in the state, and pretty close to even nearby Wildcat (~225”). Balsams would likely come in higher, but they’re not really in operation at this point.

Thanks Ginx! It’s definitely still intriguing though – we’ve now seen estimates suggesting anywhere from 90” to ~180” for the annual snowfall at that site, which is quite a range.

I’ve also been waiting for Will to pop in and give his thoughts on the snowfall at jculligan’s site at 1500' on the shoulder of North Doublehead Mountain in Jackson. It was really great when he commented on that site between Lancaster and Whitefield during the discussion in the fall banter thread. The expected average there certainly wasn’t obvious to a bunch of us not familiar with that area.

I just looked out back and I see that flakes are starting to fall in association with the shortwave currently moving into the area.

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.15” L.E. As the forecast suggested, there was a bit of snow early this morning, and it stuck even down here at 500’. There was 0.6” on the boards at observations time, which did look like it could have melted some since whenever most of it fell. This is about a week on the late side for average occurrence of first frozen precipitation here, but just a day off for the average date of first accumulating snow, so very typical there. Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations: New Snow: 0.6 inches New Liquid: 0.09 inches Snow/Water Ratio: 6.7 Snow Density: 15.0% H2O Temperature: 34.0 F Sky: Light Rain/Snow (1-2 mm flakes) Snow at the stake: 0.5 inches

Yeah, I’ve seen that, and the BTV NWS forecast discussion has touched on it as well. Along with the Monday morning stuff, there’s actually a bit of backside snow potential showing up in some of the models as well – that would be about 24 hour later in the Tuesday morning timeframe. Those are some of the potential rounds of precip. that I mentioned in my previous post – some models have a bit of something on Wednesday, and then there seems to be another possibility in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. The 540 dam line fluctuating back and forth around here to varying degrees on the models is certainly consistent with frozen not being too far away, and you know we’re really starting to get into that season when the potential shots of moisture start showing up in the models every 1 to 2 days.

Look, just do… your… job. Strike down as needed, with whatever level of vengeance and anger is required. We didn’t pay good money to watch weenies run roughshod over the sanctity of the discussion thread.

Well, it looks like the weather is going to be getting more active in the coming week – I’m seeing multiple rounds of precipitation possibilities, and most of them include some snow mentioned, even down here in the valley. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 326 PM EDT Friday...Basically, periods of showers (both rain and snow) look possible through next week as we see temperatures remain around 10 degrees below normal.

I actually hadn’t thought about it until you pointed it out, but that may be one of the cultural factors in why Vermont has had success in keeping viral spread somewhat low. Yes, we know that having low population density can help, but it’s clearly not the only factor in low positivity as Dr. Fauci pointed out when he had that virtual visit to one of Governor Scott’s press conferences. It’s been building for a while, but you’ll certainly see the pandemic ennui being discussed in the national news. People are sick of dealing with the pandemic and just want to live their lives again, so it can be hard to stick to the public health measures like masking and social distancing. If you live in a big city and your typical pastimes are going to parties, clubbing, dining out, shopping, attending large sporting events, theatre, or whatever, then the current levels of social distancing are probably quite a hassle. When your typical pastimes are hunting, fishing, biking, hiking, kayaking, skiing, etc., the distancing restrictions don’t really have a huge effect. Sure, I’d love for the pandemic to be over, but outside of modifying aspects of work, my everyday life has been pretty much the same. I can go on daily MTB rides, hike, kayak, ski, or whatever. The most notable issue with respect to outdoor activities around here was that brief period where resorts didn’t even want people ski touring, but I think we’ve advanced far enough in our knowledge of the virus and pandemic that they’re not going to go to that extreme again. We know a lot of people live here in Vermont for the outdoor lifestyle and activities, things that can easily accommodate social distancing. It just makes sense that the less your everyday life is impacted by the current regulations, the less of an issue there’s going to be with regard to pandemic fatigue, and the easier it is to stick to the public health guidelines.

We were up in the NEK on Saturday for a soccer game at North Country Union, so I can pass along a couple of pictures. When we headed past Mt. Mansfield in the morning, the clouds didn’t really let us see where the snow line was located, and we didn’t see any signs of snow in the valleys or even the intermediate peaks where we were. So indeed, even over as far north and east as Newport, any snow accumulations were nothing like what was present further east into NH. We did get to see Mansfield on the way home, so I grabbed a shot of the snow on The Chin: You can really see in that shot how much stick season is becoming the look even in parts of the valleys. There’s still some nice foliage out there though; when we were in Newport we stopped by Lake Memphremagog to check out the views, and there was still lots of foliage along the lake. As you can see in the image, even up on Mont Owl’s Head at around 2,500’ there weren’t any signs of snow though.

I’m glad backedge chimed in with that advice, because I was going to say the same thing. I feel for folks who have to pick some specific date at this point of the season, make their reservations, lock it in, and then ski that day no matter what. You shouldn’t have to do that if you’re literally living in ski country with a semi-flexible schedule. Some people treat it like a badge of honor to be out there when the surfaces are ice, the wind chills are many tens of degrees F below zero, it’s pouring rain, whatever. Let’s face it, those conditions suck (actually, days with rain can yield nice soft snow and be a lot of fun, but if it’s constantly pouring you’re still going to be getting soaked). In any event, just avoid those days with crappy conditions and ski on the good days. Up here in the northern mountains there are typically so many good to great days (thanks to upslope, etc.) that there’s going to be another good one around the corner. When it comes to ice, rain, or cold being the detrimental factor to the ski experience, cold is kind of the toughest one to factor in, because you can potentially have fantastic fresh snow conditions coupled with very cold, dangerous, uncomfortable temperatures, and the two factors are at odds. You just have to make a judgement call at that point, but err on the side of caution with the kids, especially if there’s not going to be a warm lodge to jump into at any time. Maybe you just take a run or two to get the best of the snow, then you pack it in due to the potential for frostbite, etc. My personal temperature break point for riding the lifts is around 10 F (that’s not including wind chill, which can make a big difference). Below that point I will typically just switch to skinning up because you can stay warm during the ascent while you’re exercising, and you’re never sitting up there on a lift, exposed and swinging in the wind in those temperatures. That’s really the worst part of the lift-served experience on those very cold days, having to sit still on a lift where you’re not really generating heat and at the mercy of the wind. Gondolas really remove most of that issue, but they’re not nearly as common as regular chairlifts.

I wonder about even that academic perspective though – I can’t imagine there’s much of any short or long term water deficit up here in the northern mountains at this point. The water year at our site ended within an inch or two of average, and we just passed 40” on calendar year water with this system, which is again probably within a couple inches of average. It looks like the Randolph site near you is 41”+ of liquid on the calendar year, so they’re probably roughly on track as well. Maybe there’s some sort of mid-term measurement that could be low, but it sure is getting stomped by these systems that are starting to come through now.

Yes, November 2018 was a strong one for snowfall, and as usual, it was the second half of the month with the bulk of the accumulation. We received only 4 to 5 inches in the first half of the month, but 30 inches in the second half. I’d already put together a list of November storms ≥4” at our site for a previous discussion, so I’ve added that list below. You can see how it’s been tough to even break 12” with a storm, and in terms of what’s typical, we really only average a bit more than one November storm a season that drops 4” or more. You can also see how heavily weighted the list is to the second half of the month. The strength of November 2018 is evident from the list though, with three storms from that month making the cut. 11/20/2008 14.2” 11/26/2018 13.3” 11/26/2014 11.6” 11/20/2016 11.6” 11/23/2011 11.0” 11/26/2013 8.2” 11/27/2007 7.5” 11/15/2018 7.2” 11/7/2019 7.1” 11/20/2017 6.1” 11/10/2019 5.1” 11/26/2017 4.7” 11/21/2007 4.5” 11/29/2012 4.4” 11/23/2013 4.1” 11/21/2018 4.0”