nj2va Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Good signal on the probabilities maps from the EPS for DC. >1” snow has 75%+ chance, >3” 55% chance, and >6” 33% chance. Bullish for 8 days out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Ugly.. famous stanza poems We get it..give the heat mongering a rest and let us track 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 hours ago, Newman said: I figured I'd share this. I made a list when reading Kocin and Uccellini's Northeast Snowstorms book of "Ingredients to get the Big One" and here are some (not all) similarities right now with this storm to other greats: 1. "West Coast ridge and downstream trough increasing in amplitude and decreasing in wavelength". Check. 2. "Vorticity Maxima passing between NC and NJ, heading northeast". Check. 3. "Possible southern and northern stream energy mergers". Check. 4. "High latitude blocking over Greenland trapping a 50/50 low, resulting in confluence over SE Canada". This one is little trickier. It's not like there's a huge NAO but the confluence is there that we need. 5. "Large increase of wind speed in upper-level jets upwind of trough axis and along the downstream ridge crest. Entrance region of upper-level jet streaks in NE US or SE Canada". This is a big player in the overall solution. How strong and how far north can we stretch that 250mb Jet.? 6. "Heaviest snows occur 50-300km north of the 850 hPa path". It's close. As you can see. This one has the looks of a truly classic snowstorm. Thought I'd bring this great post over from the Philly thread...very interesting theory! Thoughts? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thought I'd bring this great post over from the Philly thread...very interesting theory! Thoughts? This is gold! Great post. I love seeing the upper jet streak, promoting the fetch straight out of the gulf on that one! There’d be no shortage of qpf problems with this one, regardless of precip type. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, nj2va said: Good signal on the probabilities maps from the EPS for DC. >1” snow has 75%+ chance, >3” 55% chance, and >6” 33% chance. Bullish for 8 days out. Could you share that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 the Euro is showing a little bit of what I was worried about yesterday. I still think this one has a legit chance to get squashed. But obviously we are WAY too far out to know anything. The one thing that is nice is that temps wont be an issue. The cold air will be entrenched and is never modeled well. Also the precip shield should be larger than modeled as it always is. I think we are in a pretty good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 48 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Ugly.. famous stanza poems Shut up Chuck. 4 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: the Euro is showing a little bit of what I was worried about yesterday. I still think this one has a legit chance to get squashed. But obviously we are WAY too far out to know anything. The one thing that is nice is that temps wont be an issue. The cold air will be entrenched and is never modeled well. Also the precip shield should be larger than modeled as it always is. I think we are in a pretty good spot right now. Euro ens are showing less of what you're worried about compared to the last 3 runs. I'd be much more worried if we were already sitting on the southern edge of snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Biggest happy hour run of the GFS...today. Lol. May the snow gods bless us with some fresh pow pow love. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 NWS calling for rain and snow on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: NWS calling for rain and snow on Saturday. That’s how the good ones start. Then 5 days out it’s 1-3. Then 3 days out it’s 3-6. And so on until hopefully we see something like 24+ the night before. That’s how i remember 96 anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, griteater said: HM considers the GFS and FV3 handling of the southern wave to be outliers at the moment https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1068939730610466820 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1068941460530257921 Credit @griteater from the SE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I just think it's too warm behind the storm for 8 days away. Something would have to trend/change (it probably will, the warm up). We've seen many Day 7+ warmups not materialize already this year. A lot of our storms are right before a warmup. Cold air exiting Canada is essentially what causes a 50/50 low to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Credit @griteater from the SE thread Yoda he did mention this further down - from HM , "I've been on the suppression-side to this, and I'm thinking today's trends are one step in that direction." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: A lot of our storms are right before a warmup. Cold air exiting Canada is essentially what causes a 50/50 low to form. Agreed. This storm is a good box checker for how we get good hits in our region -storm enters the west coast around LA or San Diego -pure southern stream shortwave that tracks across the deep south -confluence overhead and to the north -High pressure right over top as it turns north - 50/50 moving through in tandem -tail end of a cold snap -right before a flip to a warmer regime Am I missing anything? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Percent of EPS ensembles giving Baltimore more than 1, 3, 6, and 12 inches of snow/sleet during the next 10 days from time listed on the left >1” >3” >6” >“12” Dec 01 12UT 68 48 34 10 Dec 01 00 UT 42 28 22 2 Nov 30 12 UT 56 46 16 0 Nov 30 00 UT 44 26 0 0 Nov 29 12 UT 34 16 0 0 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. This storm is a good box checker for how we get good hits in our region -storm enters the west coast around LA or San Diego -pure southern stream shortwave that tracks across the deep south -confluence overhead and to the north -High pressure right over top as it turns north - 50/50 moving through in tandem -tail end of a cold snap -right before a flip to a warmer regime Am I missing anything? Will likely occur on a weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 JMA is a hit... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. This storm is a good box checker for how we get good hits in our region -storm enters the west coast around LA or San Diego -pure southern stream shortwave that tracks across the deep south -confluence overhead and to the north -High pressure right over top as it turns north - 50/50 moving through in tandem -tail end of a cold snap -right before a flip to a warmer regime Am I missing anything? blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: blocking There is some ridging over Greenland at just the right time. Kind of a bootleg -nao. And the AO has been negative and is becoming neutral. And if that's the worst of the key factors we look for it's not that bad. We have scored in worse. Of course we have failed in better too so we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I can already see this op run will be more south just looking at the 528 thickness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I can already see this op run will be more south just looking at the 528 thickness. Look at 500 mb and note the western ridge amplification(not flat like last run) and the low isn't digging in in the SW as much. Looks more like the 0z and 6z runs to me. Should be different(better). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Digging a *little* less at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 One thing for sure, this run is amped! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Look at 500 mb and note the western ridge amplification(not flat like last run) and the low isn't digging in in the SW as much. Looks more like the 0z and 6z runs to me. Should be different(better). Look at the 500s at 168hr. That looks to me as if it is going for a capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Not sure we are going to like this run looking at SLP placement at 183 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Not sure we are going to like this run looking at SLP placement at 183 Not there yet on weatherbell but the high placement is good and looks as if CAD is firmly entrenched. Would probably be a good end thump at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 500 is closed off at 180 and pumping the ridge out ahead. hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 SLP is in W KY at 192... but CAD is in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Not there yet on weatherbell but the high placement is good and looks as if CAD is firmly entrenched. Would probably be a good end thump at least. yeah you could see a slightly better signal early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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