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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
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Happy 1st day of meteorological winter, everyone!  What a way to start it with the potential next week to track!  Been many years since we could do that in December...

Heh...I'm actually going to be out of town next weekend, Friday-Monday.  Going to Cleveland, my sister-in-law has tickets to the Cavs game next Saturday, literally 3 rows from the floor.  This was planned a couple months ago.  Little did I know, hahaha!  Cavs suck this year with the departure of LeBron, but hey, will be fun anyhow (they play the Wizards, no less).  I may have a bit of trouble getting back into town if some of these indications are correct!

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25 minutes ago, supernovasky said:

I've seen enough of these threats pulled away with a 72 hour lead time, so I'm not going to get too excited, but the prospect of having a real 6+" snowfall is very enticing to me.

Well..regardless of how this event turns out, I suspect this winter at some point will give you (and all of us) a couple of solid warning-level events and far more to realistically track compared to the past two years.

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1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

I have no words. This is incredible. I know it won’t happen like this, but the potential for early December is amazing. This is going to be a very long week! A lot of screen time for most of us! 

Also, you all have talked about this potential since before Thanksgiving if I remember correctly.  Jan ‘16 comes to mind when all the guidance had a snow storm this far out and for a week we were tracking who would get 3’ and who would just get 2’. 

I see that you said “I know it won’t happen like this...” but the rest of your post has an air of expectancy about it. If I could, I’d suggest dialing it down just a bit and not getting too married to the idea that it will even snow next weekend. If we keep getting similar looks until we’re about 4 days out, then something tells me Ron Paul will be saving his arms in glee.

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8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I see that you said “I know it won’t happen like this...” but the rest of your post has an air of expectancy about it. If I could, I’d suggest dialing it down just a bit and not getting too married to the idea that it will even snow next weekend. If we keep getting similar looks until we’re about 4 days out, then something tells me Ron Paul will be saving his arms in glee.

Grinch

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3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I see that you said “I know it won’t happen like this...” but the rest of your post has an air of expectancy about it. If I could, I’d suggest dialing it down just a bit and not getting too married to the idea that it will even snow next weekend. If we keep getting similar looks until we’re about 4 days out, then something tells me Ron Paul will be saving his arms in glee.

4 days is a long time...lol I know it's gonna get tougher for me to even out my excitement if even for the next TWO days if we get model runs like we did yesterday...(I almost wish that, if it's going to fail, that that shows up sooner rather than later! Because the longer ya keep getting these runs...the tougher it is to get out of the rabbit hole. Not to mention it's an El Nino year (if we were in a nina and saw these same runs, I would trust absolutely nothing--not after last year, lol) So we watch...and wage the battle of tempering our excitement for now!

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12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

4 days is a long time...lol I know it's gonna get tougher for me to even out my excitement if even for the next TWO days if we get model runs like we did yesterday...(I almost wish that, if it's going to fail, that that shows up sooner rather than later! Because the longer ya keep getting these runs...the tougher it is to get out of the rabbit hole. Not to mention it's an El Nino year (if we were in a nina and saw these same runs, I would trust absolutely nothing--not after last year, lol) So we watch...and wage the battle of tempering our excitement for now!

snowmagnet said nothing different than many others here.  There is a general sense of excitement for a nice start to met winter, so enthusiasm is warranted.  I'm sure most can sense the tone in many posts.  It will tone down as we enter snow mode, but discussing as we are in 7 day leads, is fine......for now.  

 

edit - and if we bust, we are still doing what we love and many come here for.  The thrill of the chase.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Another thing ... even suppressed storms usually end up further north than modeled 

It's not like it used to be where we wanted the target on NC 100 hours out. But most southern branch systems do trend north the last 72 hours. It's not 100%. There are exceptions where the system can get squashed. Most often if that's going to happen it shows up in the day 5-7 range though. If we make it inside 100 hours with a healthy looking system at that point it usually trends north some. Some of that is a slight track adjustment. But often it's the models underestimating the expanse of the precip on the northwest side. They often underplay the banding that often sets up just south of where the moisture feet hits the confluence wall. Often there is enhanced lift here and banding then the precip shuts off fast due to the subsidence once you get out of that banding. That's why the extreme northern cutoff is often a feature in these storms. The ratios in that area are often high too so an area with 1" qpf can get as much snow as an area with 1.5" further south. All of that often adjusts the heavy snow north some in the last 72 hours.  Hanging out on the northern side of the snowfall target is a good place to be at range imo. 

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For any wxbell user who have been frustrated....hopefully this fixes the issues.

█  Important Notice: Between December 8th and December 15th, WeatherBell Analytics will transition all data generation and map systems into the Google Cloud. This move will improve the overall reliability of our data and map services, offer some speed and delivery enhancements, and allow for more expansive product development. Because this upgrade will involve changes to our realtime systems, an exact date and time will be provided in subsequent updates and is contingent on weather conditions during the timeframe.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure what it means for next weekend but at 150 the GFS is really digging our energy into the Baja.

Imo GFS being the GFS wrt constantly overdoing it. We all know Euro’s problems with holding back energy. GFS is opposite and always overdoes the plowing of lows into Mexico and Cuba lol.

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