showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Only at 180 on weatherbell but expect we see this jump to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Why does the GFS seem to push that low into the HP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Only at 180 on weatherbell but expect we see this jump to the coast. Doing that at 198... but main SLP is in E KY while new secondary is about 50 miles east if RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 look at the differences at 850 at 186. sheesh. colder look and may help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Doing that at 198... but main SLP is in E KY while new secondary is about 50 miles east if RAH Going to be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 201 still ongoing... new low just NW of ORF lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Not sure we are going to like this run looking at SLP placement at 183 Why not just let the run progress first?...Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: 201 still ongoing... new low just NW of ORF lol 204 still ongoing... SLP near Ocean City 207 996 over Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Why not just let the run progress first?...Baby steps... We do rain for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Doing that at 198... but main SLP is in E KY while new secondary is about 50 miles east if RAH Potential big dog with this evolution as long as temps cooperate. CAD is normally under represented at this range so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I like the run. Initial low to the west dies quicker this run. Adjust it south before it jumps and it’s a huge hit. Much better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 and........... we jump due east Im not sure whats not to like here. (not that this is the final evolution), but verbatim, I'd think this may turn out pretty nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Let's be honest folks. The gfs run sucks. Primary gets too far north and secondary is too close to the coast. That's a lot more rain than snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: We do rain for a while. It was step in the right direction from what my amateur eyes can see...12z didn't give us much of a bone, lol And as @showmethesnow said...CAD may be undermodeled! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Let's be honest folks. The gfs run sucks. Primary gets too far north and secondary is too close to the coast. That's a lot more rain than snow. your right Bob, but its better than 12z and thats a step in the right direction for the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Let's be honest folks. The gfs run sucks. Primary gets too far north and secondary is too close to the coast. That's a lot more rain than snow. Yeah in the end its marginally better on the front end. Lots of rain. Just another op run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: We do rain for a while. You are so hung up on getting all snow in your particular location that you forget that when you say “we” that doesn’t apply to the entire forum. Sooooo much to be resolved which won’t be for days. Relax. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Let's be honest folks. The gfs run sucks. Primary gets too far north and secondary is too close to the coast. That's a lot more rain than snow. Not far at all from a big hit. A little tweaking and we are in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: I like the run. Initial low to the west dies quicker this run. Adjust it south before it jumps and it’s a huge hit. Much better than 12z. It sucks for anyone east of I81 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 look at mid levels. Notably colder look at 500/700 vs 12z. Good enough for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: It was step in the right direction from what my amateur eyes can see...12z didn't give us much of a bone, lol And as @showmethesnow said...CAD may be undermodeled! But the low cuts further north and west than 12z before it transfers inland along the coast. That's two runs in a row that show the same cutter solution. This is that last thing we want to see run over run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah in the end its marginally better on the front end. Lots of rain. Just another op run lol. This panel says it all... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Let's be honest folks. The gfs run sucks. Primary gets too far north and secondary is too close to the coast. That's a lot more rain than snow. Agree. It blows as depicted for most of us. Low over OC with retreating cold means cold rain after front end snow to slop. Not even close to 6z. Better version of 12z. We toss. Why not? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Agree. It blows as depicted for most of us. Low over OC with retreating cold means cold rain after front end snow to slop. Not even close to 6z. Better version of 12z. We toss. Why not? Without big deep cold, any track up into KY is going to suck. Midlevels get torched easy. We need a clean miller A for a big hit imho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: It sucks for anyone east of I81 Yes Verbatim..but it drive the low into PA. Closer to a jump south of us and a sizable hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Without big deep cold, any track up into KY is going to suck. Midlevels get torched easy. We need a clean miller A for a big hit imho Goes without saying but 8 day op run of GFS and not worried with Euro on our side. Now if the Euro caves a bit then we’ll you know.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Having the GFS cutting into a transfer a week away is great to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Goes without saying but 8 day op run of GFS and not worried with Euro on our side. Now if the Euro caves a bit then we’ll you know.. Speaking of the euro, who has access to the 18z? eta: Would it be exactly 6 hours between the old ops (so 7pm?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zach’s Pop Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Speaking of the euro, who has access to the 18z? eta: Would it be exactly 6 hours between the old ops (so 7pm?) I believe the off hours of the euro ( 6z and 18z ) only go out to 90 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Gentle reminder 7 &$*$^%&#%^*@!! DAYS AWAY There will be lots of model changes every run so just wait and see. One run is not the end all be all. 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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