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ULL, up slope snow LES, Squalls winds 11-20-22


Ginx snewx

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15 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Snow has lessened slightly but still coming down at a good rate. Froude #s appear to be dropping a little again as the band seems to be shifting west slightly again.

I may actually get more here than up at my VT plot as it's a little east of the crest and the radar echoes have been weaker up there. I will go out and measure in a little, but we're over a foot.

Regarding the radar echoes, I wonder if it's like up here where it's hard to tell because the beam gets so far away it over-shoots the low level precipitation.  This orographic stuff is probably 7000ft or lower in the atmosphere for the real precipitation.  

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There must be a huge difference from east side of town near Searsburg vs the west side on the other side of the spine. That west side must be getting destroyed. RPM model actually showed a sharp cutoff too near the crest. 

Tough luck for Haystack and Mount Snow if that's the case.

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2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

How'd upstate New York in the St Lawrence valley do?  Not really paying this storm much attention but I recall discussion about a weird QPF anomaly that maybe the GPS was hammering consistently

Hammer time there is between now and tomorrow morning on those sick GFS runs. So we won't really know until tomorrow but I don't see anything imminent on radar that suggests they are going to bank 2" of qpf in the next 24 hours. 

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The wind has started to shift and its got at least a little westerly component up to 10,000ft now.  Its causing the precip to redevelop over the Spine (Mansfield on the zig-zag county line due west of the MVL marker is back under those 25-35dbz) now but should ebb and flow a bit as the wind continues to come around in the mid-levels.

Nov20b.gif

 

The local BTV4 model Froude numbers seem to be handling this quite well right now (see screen shot).

Today it had values less than 1 and sometimes values as low as .5 or lower which is all indicative of western slope and blocked flow due to the wind shear with height.  Then you can see how as the wind becomes more uniformly from the NW at all levels, the Froude numbers rise towards the critical value of 1 by around midnight tonight (which means precip centered right over the crest)...and then holds greater than 1 all day tomorrow into tomorrow night with that deep layer NW flow.  It even rises up to 1.5-2 range which is when its getting pushed quite a bit downwind (those values might give Dendrite some snow showers or a squall tomorrow). 

Then as Monday night gets going, the nocturnal inversion starts dropping the Froude numbers again back under 1.  There definitely is some diurnal influence to it as well all else equal.

Froude.jpg

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23 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The wind has started to shift and its got at least a little westerly component up to 10,000ft now.  Its causing the precip to redevelop over the Spine (Mansfield on the zig-zag county line due west of the MVL marker is back under those 25-35dbz) now but should ebb and flow a bit as the wind continues to come around in the mid-levels.

Nov20b.gif

 

The local BTV4 model Froude numbers seem to be handling this quite well right now (see screen shot).

Today it had values less than 1 and sometimes values as low as .5 or lower which is all indicative of western slope and blocked flow due to the wind shear with height.  Then you can see how as the wind becomes more uniformly from the NW at all levels, the Froude numbers rise towards the critical value of 1 by around midnight tonight (which means precip centered right over the crest)...and then holds greater than 1 all day tomorrow into tomorrow night with that deep layer NW flow.  It even rises up to 1.5-2 range which is when its getting pushed quite a bit downwind (those values might give Dendrite some snow showers or a squall tomorrow). 

Then as Monday night gets going, the nocturnal inversion starts dropping the Froude numbers again back under 1.  There definitely is some diurnal influence to it as well all else equal.

Froude.jpg

6" on the Lincoln peak snow cam (no drifting).

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1 hour ago, wxmanmitch said:

14" total, 12" depth. Snow consistency has changed markedly from the mash potatoes we had earlier to fluff now as we've dropped into the upper 20s.

Damn man congrats!

We are over to pure powder at this point though I've only got about an inch in the yard after the warm ground and break in snow this afternoon melted back the morning burst. 

Blizzard up at the ski resort though.  Just drove up there, snow accums aren't that impressive, but very hard to tell in the dark with 30-40kt winds.  After a long summer and lack of events last winter, that was probably some of the more extreme winter storm conditions I've seen in two years.  Literally whiteout SN+ fluffy dendrites but getting absolutely annhilated by winds gusting to 40-50mph.  Could barely open my car door facing the north.  Whole SUV was rocking out in the open.

Snow is accumulating in a wave pattern up there and is really wind-packed.  That'll hurt us even if the overall QPF might be similar when compared to the west side where snow is falling straight down and stacking high.

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In a lull now, I measured 7.9 inches at 8 pm or so.  We lost power for about 3 to 4 hours.  They kept on turning it on and it would go again within seconds.  The power guys kept going up and down our road trying to figure it out.  Wow is the new driveway a bear to shovel!  It is about 80 yards and steep.  That was not fun, especially in the dark!

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