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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah, lost in the criticism is how much better we are at day 5 versus 10-15 years ago, it's pretty amazing that we now have roughly the same accuracy at day 5 that we used to have at day 3 in the late 1990s/early 2000s. But as with many things, the good (better modeling and better data) comes with the bad (the social media jockeying)

Perhaps the improvements have led to a degree of overconfidence that has spilled over into overly aggressive stances.

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CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

Posted
Posted

Up until yesterday you could argue that the European model was still correcting towards some of the more aggressive modeling but overall you could sense that it never really was going to bring this storm all the way North into New England and if so it would have started to jump today but once the 12 Z models came out and started shifting towards the Euro there was a definite trend away from as significant of impacts but this is certainly far from being set in stone. 

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gonna wipe out many cities along E coast of FL unfortunately 

Florida's infrastructure is actually quite good. Lots of underground power lines, many power poles made of concrete instead of wood that can withstand 150 mph winds, houses designed with features to protect them in strong hurricanes, etc. If there's any state that is best prepared/able to deal with a hurricane it's Florida.

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

Florida's infrastructure is actually quite good. Lots of underground power lines, many power poles made of concrete instead of wood that can withstand 150 mph winds, houses designed with features to protect them in strong hurricanes, etc. If there's any state that is best prepared/able to deal with a hurricane it's Florida.

Yeah, I'd say structurally, the code has been bumped up, but my fear is the storm surge. If Matthew takes a hugging path, it's going to pile water up along the coast. A lot of the urban coastal areas are in the floodzone. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MarkO said:

Yeah, I'd say structurally, the code has been bumped up, but my fear is the storm surge. If Matthew takes a hugging path, it's going to pile water up along the coast. A lot of the urban coastal areas are in the floodzone. 

 

If it slows down or stalls south of St. Augustine and Jacksonville, that could be bad in that region as that whole St. John's river waterway and inlets are really prone to surge. Further south in the southern half of Florida, both the shape of the coastline and the slightly more abrupt elevation rise make the surge less impactful (still a problem for sure, but not like further north)

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

I am really surprised of the 5pm  Matthew track. They still have the middle of the cone very close to New England.  Seems like with the east trends I would have shifted that cone further east up at our latitudes.  The Euro could really be on to something keeping it way down south.  Does anyone agree?

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I am really surprised of the 5pm  Matthew track. They still have the middle of the cone very close to New England.  Seems like with the east trends I would have shifted that cone further east up at our latitudes.  The Euro could really be on to something keeping it way down south.  Does anyone agree?

Actually Gene it looks like they moved the track east of the 11am prog.

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted

"[5p #Matthew]

It comes down to this: We honestly don’t know exact track & intensity of #Matthew, including size, strength, extent, and associated specific impacts.

Still early to nail down specifics; simple message: maintain awareness of tropics, follow up on latest forecasts, go on with life.

If you're concerned & feel the need, consider making a list or at least thinking about what you should do if a tropical system impacts  Southern New England.

Again, we honestly have no idea how #Matthew will pan out into the weekend. As is the case with most tropical systems, is difficult to forecast. Roughly 5-days out, there is little to no skill in forecasting."

-BOX on Facebook. 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we have an idea of what Matthew will do in relation to SNE. 

I think most SNE weenies have held  pretty reserved expectations wrt any major impacts.  As well they should have considering our track record with land falling hurricanes.  Should still be fun to watch on models and TWC.  

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78Blizzard

78Blizzard

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we have an idea of what Matthew will do in relation to SNE. 

Yeah, there is no shortage of ideas here.  This definition of idea fits perfectly:

"a transcendent entity that is a real pattern of which existing things are imperfect representations"

 

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