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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Missed that.

Eh....maybe. If it comes bodily onshore as a cat 4, yes...I think they need people to prepare for that.

Thats very true, really a minor detail in a strongly worded precautionary event. If Matt stays just offshore its  a meh event but bodily ashore ala Euro its a huge coastal issue.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, I think some of those canned statements that are a part of the *Wind or *Surge sections can start to sound a bit forced. 

That is a realistic possibility, though...I mean, would anyone be shocked if this barreled through Miami or Ft. Lauderdale as a cat 4??

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a realistic possibility, though...I mean, would anyone be shocked if this barreled through Miami or Ft. Lauderdale as a cat 4??

Possibility for sure, my overall point was more that those canned statements we try and shoehorn into every situation can sometimes sound kind of ridiculous. And of course tropical products are always reasonable worst case scenarios (1 in 10 chance) so they will sound worse than maybe the most likely forecast.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
On 10/4/2016 at 8:19 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Go with globals beyond about 2 days. Especially at our latitude. Hurricane models are better for intensity than track. 

Also a true point here.

You can see the HWRF and GFDL tend to do better than the globals when it comes to intensity. And as a result the NHC forecast gets worse with time as they begin to include more global data in the intensity blend.

biaI.png

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly....so you people need to be prepared for direct LF.
I have seen plenty of hyped statements, but I don't think this is one.

imho....

To clarify I'm not saying this is a hyped statement, just in general we have a problem with trying to find a canned statement that will work in all situations.

I do think a bigger issue for Matthew is that we're not currently "forecasting" a direct landfall, which even though impacts will be very much like a direct landfall public perception will be that if it stays over water it won't be as bad. Tough storm to message to the public, especially given model inconsistencies.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

This is a PITA storm because of angle of approach. It may not even come ashore, or a wobble sends the eyewall scraping the beaches for 100 miles. Also means the difference of like 50kts vs 100kts in wind. Tough call.

Wave action alone on a coastline follower will be pretty costly. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Well beyond the forums, too. There is often too little respect for uncertainty and, frequently, it is uncertainty that humbles those who took hard positions before the data justified such positions.

 

19 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed Don, it is all over the place on social media outlets such as twitter, facebook, various blogs, etc, etc....even in the general media too though not as bad. It is my belief that credibility is more important than being the first to make a forecast. Making the latter a top priority tends to come at the expense of the former. After all, what good is making a forecast if nobody believes you after a while? An unintended consequence is that such cavalier forecasting behavior can cast a bad light on the entire field of meteorology.

We were discussing something along these lines this morning. Even within the field, there is still a pretty poor understanding of ensembles and what they actually tell us. I would say I work with a handful of these people. They know what an ensemble is, but not how to use it.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

That didn't take long. I'm all buttoned-up. My hurricane shutters are a honeycombed thick gauge plastic, budda-bing, budda-boom, slap on lickiddy split. How sturdy, durable and useful will be tested.

The newly moved in neighbor is just sitting on his porch, WTH he has ornamentals hanging off just about every low branch. A 1/2 dozen trash barrels, bug machines. Older tree's on the N and E side of the house, inviting damage ... c'mon man city folk moving into the forest, definitely out of their element. 

Could be looking at a solid possible high-end CAT4. I've had a bad feeling from the get-go. REAL BAD           

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

That didn't take long. I'm all buttoned-up. My hurricane shutters are a honeycombed thick gauge plastic, budda-bing, budda-boom, slap on lickiddy split. How sturdy, durable and useful will be tested.

The newly moved in neighbor is just sitting on his porch, WTH he has ornamentals hanging off just about every low branch. A 1/2 dozen trash barrels, bug machines. Older tree's on the N and E side of the house, inviting damage ... c'mon man city folk moving into the forest, definitely out of their element. 

Could be looking at a solid possible high-end CAT4. I've had a bad feeling from the get-go. REAL BAD           

You have been pretty steadfast in your FL landfall call

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Doubles back around and comes ashore in the same general area.  :lol:

Getting support from other friends in the suite.

Say it ain't so Joe, say it ain't so. It's not what I want hear Joe and I got the right to know.... 

UPDATE: Just noticed County went from TS Watch to Warning. Expect that to ramp up to H Warning by tomorrow morn.

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Mr. Windcredible!

Mr. Windcredible!

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thats very true, really a minor detail in a strongly worded precautionary event. If Matt stays just offshore its  a meh event but bodily ashore ala Euro its a huge coastal issue.

I'm not sure how you can be worried about 100 mph gusts in Orlando but also think wording in the NHC advisory for the coast is too strong. If it's that bad in Orlando I think it'd be reasonable to expect 150mph gusts somewhere along the coast. Your concerns seem to contradict one another.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

I'm not sure how you can be worried about 100 mph gusts in Orlando but also think wording in the NHC advisory for the coast is too strong. If it's that bad in Orlando I think it'd be reasonable to expect 150mph gusts somewhere along the coast. Your concerns seem to contradict one another.

I thought 1 tiny section was over the top, why would 100 mph gusts equate to 150 on the coast especially if Orlando is in the eyewall . You are grasping for tiny straws

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