Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

lol at downplaying winds 

 

You must be new to New England TC threats...

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

not sure it was posted

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

Going to be real interesting to see how the eye survives landfall in Haiti and then likely Cuba.  Worst case scenario that it skirts both islands and doesn't suffer all that much right?

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's what the euro did. The GFS was more like a frontal wave with a hurricane on it, as weird as it sounds. It didn't have that expanding wind field, other than a large area of 30-40kt winds.

Looking at Dr. Hart's cyclone evolution phase diagram, the GFS takes its sweet time transitioning this one.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

You must be new to New England TC threats...

At least you're finally admitting it's coming 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At least you're finally admitting it's coming 

It depends on the evolution. The GFS is not a transitionaing, expending windfield scenario at our latitude. If you want damage, go well east with the GFS. It gets windy, but I wouldn't say damaging. I guess maybe some 40+kt gusts perhaps. But you are thinking 50kt+. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At least you're finally admitting it's coming 

 

No, it could easily still whiff wide right.

 

I don't feel the need to try and "call" if a TC is hitting us at 130 hours out. I've offered my 2 cents already at these ridiculous timeframes...until there is a very good reason to predict otherwise, you hedge east.

[weathafella]

I thnk we get heavy rain and 30-60 mph winds east of 495.   Heavy rain and 20-40 winds the rest of sne.

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I thnk we get heavy rain and 30-60 mph winds east of 495.   Heavy rain and 20-40 winds the rest of sne.

It may try to do a PRE thing. That's my guess. I don't see winds as an issue in most areas. For now anyways.

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It may try to do a PRE thing. That's much guess. I don't see winds as an issue in most areas. For now anyways.

Certainly won't be a hurricane by the time it gets abeam of  Ur latitude.   

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It may try to do a PRE thing. That's much guess. I don't see winds as an issue in most areas. For now anyways.

 

Very good chance we'd get PRE rains even if it whiffs well east...just with the trough going through, it's going to want to set up a convergence area that extends north from the TC.

[Hoth]

Hadn't seen these posted yet.

[dryslot]

We now have TS Nicole out to the NE of Matthew

[amarshall]

5 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Hadn't seen these posted yet.

Does a loop and whacks VT after?

[dryslot]

Matthew still cat 4 after LF in Haiti, Looks to be emerging back into open water

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Certainly won't be a hurricane by the time it gets abeam of  Ur latitude.   

 

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Very good chance we'd get PRE rains even if it whiffs well east...just with the trough going through, it's going to want to set up a convergence area that extends north from the TC.

 Yeah the setup is there even if the low is well SE. Good approaching trough with excellent right entrance region of jet acting on PWAT plume.  

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Certainly won't be a hurricane by the time it gets abeam of  Ur latitude.   

Euro was interesting. Really gave CC a blow. Classic transitioning storm. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

46 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fujiwara!!!!

Not a met but Matthew is sooooo much more powerful it shouldn't be effected much if at all

[Typhoon Tip]

i'd be interested in what this this Category is by sun-down considering what Satellite presentation suggests that arm of Haiti has done to it - 

[JC-CT]

i'd be interested in what this this Category is by sun-down considering what Satellite presentation suggests that arm of Haiti has done to it - 

Really? Looks like the eyewall is already reforming.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Not sure how Nicole can have any impact on Matthew.  It's such a small synoptic feature out there as compared to a trough or ridge.

[CoastalWx]

Man look at that ageostrophic flow at 250mb. In theory, the flow should be parallel to those height lines. Note the wind barbs. They run across height lines. The vector difference is the venting, or mass movement of air away from a specific area. That is great to help air to rise. 

 

 

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Certainly won't be a hurricane by the time it gets abeam of  Ur latitude.   

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a met but Matthew is sooooo much more powerful it shouldn't be effected much if at all

Agreed.  I just like that term... Nicole is like a pimple compared to it

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z Sunday the NHC forecast has this as an 80kt TC.  High end Cat 1.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z Sunday the NHC forecast has this as an 80kt TC.  High end Cat 1.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

 

And it should be trucking right along to boot

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man look at that ageostrophic flow at 250mb. In theory, the flow should be parallel to those height lines. Note the wind barbs. They run across height lines. The vector difference is the venting, or mass movement of air away from a specific area. That is great to help air to rise. 

 

 

For scale so people can see what you're talking about. We can plot the ageostrophic vectors at the Plym vortex site.

[CoastalWx]

That's cool too. I didn't know you could do that there. 

[weathafella]

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

 

Still not abeam of sne...

[CoastalWx]

Looks like the Midwest trough is not as sharp. I think it gets a bit more of a boot east. 

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the Midwest trough is not as sharp. I think it gets a bit more of a boot east. 

A little flatter and slower this run, Should shift it east somewhat

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the Midwest trough is not as sharp. I think it gets a bit more of a boot east. 

Ridge a smidgen stronger?  Washes out?