Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[CT Valley Snowman]

Will probably stay just offshore based on the angle coming off the NC Coast. We'll see.

 

[TalcottWx]

156 kt ~2500ft above surface NE eyewall. 136 kt average lowest 150m. 123 kt surface wind. 12:05am 

[Bostonseminole]

right over the CC canal.. CMC pretty similar

[TalcottWx]

John Morales of NBC has pretty solid twitter coverage out of Miami. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

CMC may miss Carolinas...

[CT Valley Snowman]

Looks like it goes over the Cape, drought busting rains that I would certainly take back this way if that verified.  Once again. I thought the trough looked a bit more progressive but Matthew also was more progressive and slightly further W due to the stronger high pressure to the east of the storm down near Florida. 

 

[ineedsnow]

Cmc is sweet

[Bostonseminole]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CMC may miss Carolinas...

makes landfall in NC .. 

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Will probably stay just offshore based on the angle coming off the NC Coast. We'll see.

 

Considering the trend (OP GFS model) One could debate a LF in FL. is almost certain. Finding hard to believe it skirts as depicted on 00Z. We'll see what the whole model suite has.  

[NortheastPAWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

CMC may miss Carolinas...

Nope.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

That's probably the worse angle for LF and then tracking NNW. Resulting in hurricane force winds for a majority of the state. The weenie in me (on my left shoulder) f it bring it on. 

weaker side with down sloping bad but could get much worse with a West jog

[MJO812]

CMC hammers the northeast

[ROOSTA]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

weaker side with down sloping bad but could get much worse with a West jog

I'd rather see it come in lock stock and barrel. Kick the crap out of it instead of "blue balling, although FL alot of lakes, flat and probably not diminishing intensity.

That track would keep hurricane force winds >100 over coastal waters with gusts up to TS force inland.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

First no it's definitely now the time to watch. Second a direct hit isn't awesome. I could see a deal where the moisture is stripped north into New England and the main naked type swirl is forced out south of us. Drought busting rains seem likely

I think this is a very real possibility 

[TalcottWx]

Can't find my post from months ago when I said landfalling cane ends drought.. shot in the dark but hey I'll take it lol 

[weathafella]

Uncle anyone?

[TalcottWx]

Les Cayes has small bay that could see tremendously high surge. One of most populated areas in SW Haiti. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Uncle anyone?

Main tropical forum has a link showing it making landfall on the Central FL coast. 

 

[weathafella]

Uncle seems in that camp.  Be interesting looking at euro results in the morning,

[ROOSTA]

My oversight....
I have an open invitation, open door for anyone wanting to chase.

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

Euro will be OTS again for us

[moneypitmike]

Good thoughts and prayers to those getting it now and through the next few days. 

The 06GEFS look to bring it further inland in the Carolinas and then head OTS south of New England, if I'm reading correctly.

 

Have a great day, all.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is east of the BM but gets coastal mass and CC with some heavy rain and strong winds. Good move NW of 12z. 

[eyewall]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The more phased solutions have the mtn top snow. I'd root for that. 

That is my hope for sure

[Damage In Tolland]

8 hours ago, dendrite said:

I would like a foot of rain. I want bridges washed out DIT style. Great freshets scurrying off with thy knickers.

Rain is so boring and unexciting..If this can't bring big damaging winds...puff puff pass

[Damage In Tolland]

CMC/GFS/Ukie all give good backside winds ..60mph ..higher for SE sections

[moneypitmike]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rain is so boring and unexciting..If this can't bring big damaging winds...puff puff pass

Drought posts are riveting though.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is east of the BM but gets coastal mass and CC with some heavy rain and strong winds. Good move NW of 12z. 

At this range aren't the trends what have the most significance? 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said:

At this range aren't the trends what have the most significance? 

Pretty much. 

[dryslot]

That was good shift to the NW on the 0z Euro overnight, Impressive 06z Hurricane model tracks as well