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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
Just now, CarverWX said:

Quick question. Would this have to make landfall in SNE in order for us to have wind damage or would we have issues even if it passes near the BM?

With the approaching trough there will be a developing strong baroclinic zone so there will strong winds associated with that so you won't need the direct hit from Matthew to get the strong winds.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Tough to ignore the Euro shift up this way.  See what it does at 12z.  Leaning towards some sort of impact up this way, starting w/ rains.  

Probably what most here had been waiting for starting now was to see what direction it was going to move or hold, That was a decent shift to the left at 0z

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

hurricane models seems to be further west than global.. which ones are more reliable when under 130 hrs?

Go with globals beyond about 2 days. Especially at our latitude. Hurricane models are better for intensity than track. 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

I like the NHC's current cone through Sunday at 2 am but I think shortly after reemerging in the  atlantic we should see the track bend back a bit, with a N/NNE trajectory towards eastern LI and SNE, as he begins to phase. I don't think he just races northeastward from the coast of the Carolina's.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I like the NHC's current cone through Sunday at 2 am but I think shortly after reemerging in the  atlantic we should see the track bend back a bit, with a N/NNE trajectory towards eastern LI and SNE, as he begins to phase. I don't think he just races northeastward from the coast of the Carolina's.

Maybe hedging more towards dampening out the trough rather than a capture? 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah those tracks don't really inspire wind unless maybe Cape Cod. You would want something moving NNE from HSE into HVN. Or, have the euro solution, only 150 miles west. 

The GFS has been delivering some brief but high winds on the back side of that convergence zone near the S Coast and LI. 50-60kt+ sustained at 10m the past couple of runs. It almost looks like a nasty stinger.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

How is the developing TD to the northeast of Matthew going to impact this whole setup?  Looking better and better on Sat. and we could have a tropical storm moving WNW or NW.  Does that pull Matthew further east?  Does the TD get up towards us first slowing down the trough?  Does it cartwheel around Matthew throwing more moisture into the system as it gets up towards us?   It could be a bigger wildcard than the models are indicating since they seem to play catchup with developing systems.

Thoughts from you Mets??

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

How is the developing TD to the northeast of Matthew going to impact this whole setup?  Looking better and better on Sat. and we could have a tropical storm moving WNW or NW.  Does that pull Matthew further east?  Does the TD get up towards us first slowing down the trough?  Does it cartwheel around Matthew throwing more moisture into the system as it gets up towards us?   It could be a bigger wildcard than the models are indicating since they seem to play catchup with developing systems.

Thoughts from you Mets??

Fujiwara!!!!

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If this goes extratropical, I wouldn't totally downplay the winds.   The wind field expands during this and even though it might not be hugely strong, it can at least be interesting

That's what the euro did. The GFS was more like a frontal wave with a hurricane on it, as weird as it sounds. It didn't have that expanding wind field, other than a large area of 30-40kt winds.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah those tracks don't really inspire wind unless maybe Cape Cod. You would want something moving NNE from HSE into HVN. Or, have the euro solution, only 150 miles west. 

BTV already has winds gusting up to 70mph on Sunday night at the ski resort up here.  Stays high all weekend, sustained in the 50s on the upper mountain.

That backside trough should come in with some power.

Wind.jpg

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

That's what the euro did. The GFS was more like a frontal wave with a hurricane on it, as weird as it sounds. It didn't have that expanding wind field, other than a large area of 30-40kt winds.

If I remember correctly that hurricane on a frontal wave is fairly similar to what happened with Floyd.

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