Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[ineedsnow]

Euro has landfall on the florida coast

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, WhiteLawns said:

12z euro at hr 72 LF Mid Florida coast.

Somewhere between Canaveral and West Palm Beach

[JC-CT]

What seems to me to be lost on some is how the GFS, UKMET and CMC all folded to the EC's position of the trough over the midwest at 10/7 12z. It's not coming up the coast without the phase.

 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

We can look at the models individually and drool all we want but there's going to be small fluctuations in the next 24 hours that seriously affect this storm's path and future evolutions. 

I know I don't need to tell YOU that. I mean that in a good way. It's more or less those that poo-poo the likelihood of either or downplay the threat to SNE that certainly exists right now. At the same time we know this could go out to sea.

So if we understand the modeling still has no clue why not discuss more about the actual storm? More real time disco too? Trends on satellite and radar. I'm glued to refreshing the tropical floater right now. Lets just take time to respect the beast and enjoy the fact we finally have some interesting.

It's perfectly fine to discuss that the threat right now and all along has been less for SNE as long you are giving good science behind your reasoning. It's the weenies that get defensive when their outcome is not being discussed.

[ORH_wxman]

Even the guidance that doesn't landfall in Florida comes precariously close, so they are definitely a place that needs to watch very carefully. Luckily, the west coast of Florida isn't overly prone to surge until you get up into the Augusta/Jacksonville region.

[Chrisrotary12]

ECMWF is going to do that stupid loop off Carolinas

[SouthCoastMA]

It may pull a UKMET. ha

[dryslot]

Fujiwara

[Go Kart Mozart]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

There's an inherent desire to be the first to "call" something on these forums...Tip kind of nailed that aspect of behavior that has become a lot more prevalent in the past 6 or 7 years vs earlier.

 

But it's an easy thing to let go of once you can be at peace with the fact we cannot predict the track of a TC with any skill out in that D5-10 time range. Anyone making definitive statements this early about the impacts on SNE is completely full of sh**...that's probably my best professional advice on this one.

 

I'd say the highest chance of impacts from this are the PRE...but anything is still on the table from a cat2/3 hit to a clean whiff with little rain at all.

Nonsense.  Those of us who aren't professionals view this as a weather forum where we have fun speculating and trying to make predictions.   Same reason many of us probably listen to sports talk-radio...there are no Bill Belichick's among us, but we like discussion on how the Pats should do this or do that.  If all we do is track storms this place would be dull dull duller.  

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

The new Euro has the craziest storm track I have ever seen... it ends up in the gulf of mexico after hitting florida twice in the same spot

[Bostonseminole]

I think EURO should have been delayed more

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

I think EURO should have been delayed more

Hahaha. Can't wait to see what the ensembles look like.

[eyewall]

Toss the Euro run

[Chrisrotary12]

Double landfall!  Oh yeah!

[Rtd208]

Just now, eyewall said:

Toss the Euro run

I say toss all of the model runs and we all pile into the American Weather Econo Van and drive down to Florida and chase it back up the coast ourselves.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Nonsense.  Those of us who aren't professionals view this as a weather forum where we have fun speculating and trying to make predictions.   Same reason many of us probably listen to sports talk-radio...there are no Bill Belichick's among us, but we like discussion on how the Pats should do this or do that.  If all we do is track storms this place would be dull dull duller.  

 

We will agree to disagree.

[dryslot]

Trough went poof

[CoastalWx]

The european is flatter with the H5 trough over the Midwest and further west with the WAR. As a result it gets pushed into FL. As the trough moves into the northeast, it's so flat that it completely misses Matthew.  The one trend overall, has been further west and slow..partially thanks to that WAR.

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Trough went poof

Zonal.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

We will agree to disagree.

it's nonsense the pros need to start getting on their own and stop blaming weenies. Start with the 10 day forecasts 

[Damage In Tolland]

Gonna wipe out many cities along E coast of FL unfortunately 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

it's nonsense the pros need to start getting on their own and stop blaming weenies. Start with the 10 day forecasts 

 10 day forecasts are a joke...concocted by the media's desire for viewers and webpage clicks. Accuwx has been one of the worst offenders over the years.

I've definitely not singled out only weenies...

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 10 day forecasts are a joke...concocted by the media's desire for viewers and webpage clicks. Accuwx has been one of the worst offenders over the years.

I've definitely not singled out only weenies...

 

 

Oh that's for sure, when I see Scooters cubicle mate Mike posting Euro clusters 12 days out I have to shake my head. Granted they have use but a blog with 38 references serves no purpose other than click bait and fueling the less informed. Anyways back to Matty ice, Florida worst  case scenario is a right angle hit.

[CoastalWx]

We as mets try to educate the public here on the forum. It may sound like we are downplaying something not because we want to, but we are simply trying to help the amateur enthusiasts  understand the issues and not to falsely get your hopes up. I hate seeing the meltdowns after people get their hopes up, only to have the storm whipped out from under them. Many times they are avoidable. Everybody deep down loves anomalous weather. I get it.....but we have to be real about the forecasts too. On the other hand, I can think of times where the forecasts were boosted up by us as compared to models. Especially in the winter. 

[78Blizzard]

Even the WC said that the EURO was a very strange run.  No other model is showing that as far as I know.  The EURO has been against the world with this TC for the most part, and this continues its weird solutions.  I mean there is no major landfall, yet it finally dissipates the storm over the gulf, lol.

[Ginx snewx]

44 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

We can look at the models individually and drool all we want but there's going to be small fluctuations in the next 24 hours that seriously affect this storm's path and future evolutions. 

I know I don't need to tell YOU that. I mean that in a good way. It's more or less those that poo-poo the likelihood of either or downplay the threat to SNE that certainly exists right now. At the same time we know this could go out to sea.

So if we understand the modeling still has no clue why not discuss more about the actual storm? More real time disco too? Trends on satellite and radar. I'm glued to refreshing the tropical floater right now. Lets just take time to respect the beast and enjoy the fact we finally have some interesting.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

We as mets try to educate the public here on the forum. It may sound like we are downplaying something not because we want to, but we are simply trying to help the amateur enthusiasts  understand the issues and not to falsely get your hopes up. I hate seeing the meltdowns after people get their hopes up, only to have the storm whipped out from under them. Many times they are avoidable. Everybody deep down loves anomalous weather. I get it.....but we have to be real about the forecasts too. On the other hand, I can think of times where the forecasts were boosted up by us as compared to models. Especially in the winter. 

 

Firehose storm man....totally downplayed by so much of the media. I had the highest forecast out for the ORH hills and was still too conservative. I remember we said that some of the forecasts for interior SE MA were insanely low too.

 

But yeah...day 7+ progs on a tropical cyclone impacting SNE is definitely not the time to try and get fancy with bold forecasts. Even 5 days out like now is so uncertain...moreso than in winter where right now we still have weaker PJ interaction.

 

 

At any rate, I hope none of that criticism came off as saying "don't talk about the system at all"...that's not the intention. We love to talk about potential quite far out...it's just the living and dying by the OP model runs at day 8 looks like it belongs on accuwx and not here. We should hold ourselves to higher standards, and not just mets. We have a lot of seasoned amateurs too.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Even the WC said that the EURO was a very strange run.  No other model is showing that as far as I know.  The EURO has been against the world with this TC for the most part, and this continues its weird solutions.  I mean there is no major landfall, yet it finally dissipates the storm over the gulf, lol.

It has demolished every model in MAE (mean absolute error). It doesn't mean it has to continue going forward, but I know where my money is in the near term anyways.

 

 

[78Blizzard]

Can we stay on the topic of Matthew here?  Mods should know these discussions should be taken elsewhere.  Just saying.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Firehose storm man....totally downplayed by so much of the media. I had the highest forecast out for the ORH hills and was still too conservative. I remember we said that some of the forecasts for interior SE MA were insanely low too.

 

But yeah...day 7+ progs on a tropical cyclone impacting SNE is definitely not the time to try and get fancy with bold forecasts. Even 5 days out like now is so uncertain...moreso than in winter where right now we still have weaker PJ interaction.

 

 

At any rate, I hope none of that criticism came off as saying "don't talk about the system at all"...that's not the intention. We love to talk about potential quite far out...it's just the living and dying by the OP model runs at day 8 looks like it belongs on accuwx and not here. We should hold ourselves to higher standards, and not just mets. We have a lot of seasoned amateurs too.

Yep, absolutely.