Major Hurricane Isaias

[olafminesaw]

[olafminesaw]

The Nokia 3310 of hurricanes

[MattPetrulli]

FWIW, multiple hurricane/AI model runs have had it as a borderline category 4 right now for a few days. Big W for those suites.

[mob1]

So resilient 

[cardinalland]

110 mph surface winds in the west eyewall

[MattPetrulli]

Oh

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

110 mph surface winds in the west eyewall

That… is actually impressive. Against 40 kts of shear 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Final Call for Major Hurricane Isaias...no changes in track, but slightly stronger. Landfall near Destin, FL at 11PM tonight with maximum sustained winds of 105MPH and maximum storm surge of around 10' in the vicinity of Choctawhatchee Bay, FL.

https://forecastmaven.com/forecasts/easternmassweather/final-call-for-dangerous-major-hurricane-isaias-approach-to-fl-panhandle/

 

Isaias Final Call:

[kayman]

6 hours ago, sakau2007 said:

i respectfully disagree with you. the 3 games i am aware of closest to the storm's impacts are Georgia/Alabama in Tuscaloosa (storm will be effectively over by kickoff), Georgia Tech/Duke in Atlanta (breezy and rainy, but no big deal in the whole scheme of things) and Vanderbilt/Ole Miss in Nashville (similar to Atlanta, with probably less overall impact, and less tornado threat).

i do agree with you that this could come in like Opal... in the sense that the pressure might rise 25 millibars prior to landfall off its peak.

 

I disagree. They should postpone the AL/GA & GT/Duke U games

[NavarreDon]

Noticeable uptick in both wind and rain in Wright FL (location below) over the past 30 minutes.




.

[cptcatz]

Yooo this new plane just recorded 136 kt flight level wind...

[OHweather]

Judging by radar, the shear is starting to impact the southwestern eyewall a bit more. At the moment convection in the northern and eastern eyewall is still quite robust and the inner core is holding up well. Per recon the pressure and winds have seemingly leveled off for a few hours now. I’m guessing we see a few more hours of relatively steady state intensity before shear and dry air start taking a more substantial toll on the inner core. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon looks like this has shot up to cat 4

[NorthHillsWx]

I think we’re getting some sting jet interaction. This very likely is cat 4 based on recon’s last pass of FL winds 130+ kts

[OHweather]

Curious to see if they got a good dropsonde in the eastern eyewall where those FL winds were just measured…the eye sonde continued to support 959mb, but those FL winds could support 110-115kt. 

[HKY_WX]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Recon looks like this has shot up to cat 4

Most underhyped major cane I can recall. At least when it comes to this board and some of the weenie crowds. It's usually the opposite.

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092026
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026
 
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF 
COAST...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND 
DEVASTATING WINDS SHOULD BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 87.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, HKY_WX said:

Most underhyped major cane I can recall. At least when it comes to this board and some of the weenie crowds. It's usually the opposite.

For real. IMO based on recon we have a cat 4 just hours from landfall in a very populated part of Florida and some on here still think a nor Easter is going to be the end result. 

[NorthHillsWx]

On 10/6/2026 at 4:50 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

This system has escalated quite a bit from what the original thinking was. Definitely some potential for a strong hurricane especially in the middle of the gulf 

On 10/6/2026 at 7:00 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

Man, it looks really good on satellite right now. It’s got that look…

On 10/7/2026 at 8:15 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

Small cyclone, nuclear grade water temps, BOC, divergent flow. This is going to explode today. Think even the aggressive models are undershooting intensity. Do not think this landfalls near peak intensity but next 24 hours I expect this to become a high end cane I’ve seen this look before in the gulf…

Yep. 

[Nomz]

Surprisingly the east eyewall drop only recorded 87kt surface level winds

[cardinalland]

This wouldn't warrant an upgrade, but the data shows a storm that's pretty robust. 150 mph winds at 925mb-938mb, which is about 800-1200ft above the surface

[Nomz]

Just now, cardinalland said:

This wouldn't warrant an upgrade, but the data shows a storm that's pretty robust. 150 mph winds at 925mb-938mb, which is about 800-1200ft above the surface

Yeah, could just be a matter of time before the stronger winds mix down to the surface.

[NJwx85]

12 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Surprisingly the east eyewall drop only recorded 87kt surface level winds

All of the really deep convection today has been on the Western side of the circulation. I believe the Eastern side has been getting choked off some by the drier air wrapping in.

[MANDA]

Doing a darn good job of fighting off the dry air trying to get ingested from the west.  Robust convection most of the western half of the circulation.  More new convection popping NW on the center.  

 

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60w.html

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO2/loop60i.html

Northern eye wall looking solid.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=EVX-N0Q-1-48-100-usa-rad

[Floydbuster]

 

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Judging by radar, the shear is starting to impact the southwestern eyewall a bit more. At the moment convection in the northern and eastern eyewall is still quite robust and the inner core is holding up well. Per recon the pressure and winds have seemingly leveled off for a few hours now. I’m guessing we see a few more hours of relatively steady state intensity before shear and dry air start taking a more substantial toll on the inner core. 

We have about 8-9 hours til landfall. So it's a race against time with the shear. 

The storm has done a remarkable job fighting it off. No doubt the very warm, undisturbed gulf and jet stream alignment helped big time. 

[olafminesaw]

Whoa, need confirmation from the drop, but 952.8 MB extrap , vs the pass before at 958.0 (drop was 963)

[beanskip]

Uh oh -- so much for leveling off ....

[Interstate]

47 minutes ago, kayman said:

I disagree. They should postpone the AL/GA & GT/Duke U games

You know everyone is grown adult and can choose to go or not.  Adults make choices.

[beanskip]

Just now, Interstate said:

You know everyone is grown adult and can choose to go or not.  Adults make choices.

My God what does it take for the football talk to get taken to banter?