Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[Rjay]

Euro doing loops

[wthrmn654]

Aren't gusts to 55 mph high wind criteria? 

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

There are coastal flood watches and coastal flood advisories for southern Nassau County and i thin south western Suffolk county issued last night. Highly expect more watches/ advisories to be issued very shortly for more areas. 

Thank you.

[Rjay]

Maybe the rrfs isn't on crack lol 

 

 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Aren't gusts to 55 mph high wind criteria? 

I think 60?

[wthrmn654]

7 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Maybe the rrfs isn't on crack lol 

 

 

You know is simply the euro baiting everyone to rage after its been here all week saying hi hello, doesn't anyone believe me? Oh now you wanna believe me? Well screw you watch this! 

[Rjay]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Maybe the rrfs isn't on crack lol 

 

 

 

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I think 60?

58mph I had to look up again

[wthrmn654]

12z First time the gefs ensembles are tightly clustered. 

[NJwx85]

22 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Maybe the rrfs isn't on crack lol 

 

 

Can you do 10m winds?

[Nibor]

Can’t remember where I read it but the rrfs tends to over model the convective area by some crazy percentage like 50%. The rrfs-A is supposed to correct that excessive modeling. 
 

edit: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/39/1/WAF-D-23-0112.1.xml

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

12z First time the gefs ensembles are tightly clustered. 

starting to see a consensus over all of a loop south of LI

[Rjay]

12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Can you do 10m winds?

I kinda hate the 10m wind products

[NJwx85]

New run coming out now. This was 12z.

[Rjay]

925mb winds

 

[wthrmn654]

[jconsor]

I agree the specific REFS scenario should be largely dismissed, though the idea of a westward turn occurring fairly far south near southern NJ and the Delmarva has merit IMHO.

The REFS (RRFS ensemble) has a lot of value and so far I have barely seen anyone mentioning it.  Probably because the site with REFS graphics seems to be a pretty well kept secret: https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/

The images I posted below show probability of 58 mph wind gusts (HWW criteria) at 42, 54 and 60 hours from the most recent REFS run (15z).  Based on this I think a HWW would be well justified for the south shore of LI as well as eastern Suffolk, perhaps even into se CT. 

I also added the MSLP and 850 mb wind forecasts from the REFS at 60 hours, showing the mean places the storm well north of the RRFS operational.

[donsutherland1]

The 18z NBM:

[Prue11]

Okx forecast discussion still not buying into warnings for winds outside of possibly  the twin forks 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Okx forecast discussion still not buying into warning or even advisory winds outside of the twin forks 

they have an advisory up for all of LI and CT shoreline and NYC

[Rjay]

[uofmiami]

10 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Okx forecast discussion still not buying into warnings for winds outside of possibly  the twin forks 

They only updated aviation section this afternoon.  Updated forecast discussion hasn't been put online yet.

[MANDA]

Nice convective blowup vicinity of developing low pressure as the sun starts to set over the Atlantic east of NC.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_US/loop60v.html

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park-the usual spots are in for a rough one. Maybe even parts of Long Beach. 

[Dan76]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park-the usual spots are in for a rough one. Maybe even parts of Long Beach. 

Was in the streets in freeport this morning.

[Rjay]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Freeport, Lindenhurst, Island Park-the usual spots are in for a rough one. Maybe even parts of Long Beach. 

I think the coastal flooding is going to be worse than many think.  

[Brian5671]

Both nams say what rain?   At least thru late saturday

[SnoSki14]

Kinda wild how different the solutions are this close in. 

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Both nams say what rain?   At least thru late saturday

The 18z 3k NAM has quite a bit of rain Friday night. Anyway most of the rain should fall on Sunday, not Saturday. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Kinda wild how different the solutions are this close in. 

Convective feedback likely playing a role