Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[wthrmn654]

Nam doesn't look to bad either.  Put it in the books. Tracks much better concrnsus tonight

[Prue11]

Does anyone actually care if this storm hits us or not? For me could care less moderate winds rain we don’t need and coastal flooding is always dangerous 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET goes NNE to eastern end of LI and then into SE New England while weakening substantially Mon-Tue

[TriPol]

6 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Does anyone actually care if this storm hits us or not? For me could care less moderate winds rain we don’t need and coastal flooding is always dangerous 

If you don't care, why post? There are people who care. It'll fascinating watching the Titans at MetLife Stadium during a huge wind and rain storm on Sunday afternoon.

[Neblizzard]

0z Euro slams into NJ, widespread 2 inches of rain and strong winds for NYC/LI/NJ

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

0z Euro slams into NJ, widespread 2 inches of rain and strong winds for NYC/LI/NJ

Yep stronger run. Gfs also caved. 

[Neblizzard]

3 hours ago, TriPol said:

If you don't care, why post? There are people who care. It'll fascinating watching the Titans at MetLife Stadium during a huge wind and rain storm on Sunday afternoon.

If the 0z EURO is right , that’s exactly what will happen. 

[jm1220]

Big time beach erosion and flood risk with a track like that. 

[wthrmn654]

No change from Upton , already passed there usual time when they change/ issue things

[nycwinter]

upton continues to downplay the threat for the nyc area..

[TriPol]

40 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

upton continues to downplay the threat for the nyc area..

They're waiting for the GFS to decide what it wants to do. If the 12z GFS does what the 0z GFS did, then they'll change.

[TriPol]

The 06Z GFS is broadly similar to the 00Z run, but there are several important differences in timing, intensity and the eventual track of the coastal storm. The first notable change is that the 06Z GFS develops and deepens the cyclone somewhat faster. By Friday morning, the 06Z run has the low near 997 mb, roughly a couple of millibars deeper than the 00Z run at the same valid time. Through Friday night and early Saturday, that difference gradually shrinks. By Saturday morning and afternoon, both runs are clustered near 991 to 993 mb, showing remarkably good agreement on the storm's peak intensity.

The larger difference involves what happens after the cyclone reaches its mature stage. The 00Z GFS showed a clearer and more sustained westward retrograde, bringing the low back toward the New York and New Jersey coastline after it stalled offshore. The 06Z GFS still stalls the cyclone southeast of Long Island, but the westward motion is less pronounced. Instead, the system largely meanders near the 70°W longitude corridor while gradually weakening.

The 06Z run also produces a particularly intense northwest-side precipitation band Saturday, placing Long Island, New York City, northern New Jersey and southern New England beneath a prolonged rain shield. Overall, the 06Z run does not represent a major departure from 00Z. Both depict a deep coastal cyclone that moves north, stalls south of New England, and slowly weakens. The principal uncertainty remains how far west the trapped circulation ultimately drifts.

[bluewave]

Really impressive hybrid system on the 0z Euro. Develops a +20C warm seclusion type core as it loops back to the coast. 75 mph gusts just offshore with 60-70 mph gusts close to the shore.

An IVT like feature with 4-5” back to the coast and a tropical-like  13” max offshore. So our strongest nor’easter of the 2020s so far.

The tide surge forecasts will probably take a few days to catch up with coastal flooding levels since they usually become accurate within 24-36 hours of the event.

The exact location of the loop back to the coast will be important as to timing and location of the highest tides. 
 

 

 

[TriPol]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive hybrid system on the 0z Euro. Develops a +20C warm seclusion type core as it loops back to the coast. 75 mph gusts just offshore with 60-70 mph gusts close to the shore.

An IVT like feature with 4-5” back to the coast and a tropical-like  13” max offshore. So our strongest nor’easter of the 2020s so far.

The tide surge forecasts will probably take a few days to catch up with coastal flooding levels since they usually become accurate within 24-36 hours of the event.

The exact location of the loop back to the coast will be important as to timing and location of the highest tides. 
 

 

 

If this verifies, NOAA, the NYC government, and the broadcast weathermen are doing a disservice by downplaying this.

[EasternLI]

I think the track on the euro AI ens is close to ultimately how this goes. With the loop west just south of somewhere between Suffolk co and Block island. That feels about right given everything. Has been quite breezy already this week. Expecting pretty big impacts from this thing locally. 

[TriPol]

This has got to change:

 

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Models in general agreement with a closed 500mb low over or near the
forecast area Friday through Sunday. Given its location,
anticipating the surface low to track near or not too far east of
the 40N/70W benchmark during Saturday before meandering or
retrograding toward the coast late in the weekend, then slowly
departing during Monday as it weakens. Confidence in this track
is still not high due to the closed/cutoff low aloft.

Rain chances begin Friday morning, and mainly east of the city,
rain is likely Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. For
the the city and points west, rain chances are mostly below 50%
up until Saturday afternoon and night. Still thinking that
rainfall flooding impacts are little to none - just low chance
for flooding across far eastern zones, and probably limited to
minor nuisance and poor drainage flooding. Long Island,
especially eastern Long Island, can handle a fair amount of
rain, especially the long duration nature of the event. However,
if the NAM verifies, a period of heavy rain is possible the
first part of Saturday night, with over 2 inches of rainfall for
the south fork of Long Island in a 6 hour period. If models
trend west with the storm track, then western zones could have a
chance of minor flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has
placed southeast CT and central and easter Long Island in a
marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall from Friday
through Monday night.

As for winds, continue anticipating gusts to remain below
advisory thresholds, but it could come close across eastern LI
and SE CT late day Friday through Saturday morning.
However, there may be isolated incidents of downed trees and
power lines due to the heavy rain loosening the soil and
weighing down leaves in combination with breezy/windy
conditions.

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive hybrid system on the 0z Euro. Develops a +20C warm seclusion type core as it loops back to the coast. 75 mph gusts just offshore with 60-70 mph gusts close to the shore.

An IVT like feature with 4-5” back to the coast and a tropical-like  13” max offshore. So our strongest nor’easter of the 2020s so far.

The tide surge forecasts will probably take a few days to catch up with coastal flooding levels since they usually become accurate within 24-36 hours of the event.

The exact location of the loop back to the coast will be important as to timing and location of the highest tides. 
 

 

 

Upton not even thinking a wind advisory let alone warning

[Tatamy]

15 minutes ago, TriPol said:

This has got to change:

 

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Models in general agreement with a closed 500mb low over or near the
forecast area Friday through Sunday. Given its location,
anticipating the surface low to track near or not too far east of
the 40N/70W benchmark during Saturday before meandering or
retrograding toward the coast late in the weekend, then slowly
departing during Monday as it weakens. Confidence in this track
is still not high due to the closed/cutoff low aloft.

Rain chances begin Friday morning, and mainly east of the city,
rain is likely Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. For
the the city and points west, rain chances are mostly below 50%
up until Saturday afternoon and night. Still thinking that
rainfall flooding impacts are little to none - just low chance
for flooding across far eastern zones, and probably limited to
minor nuisance and poor drainage flooding. Long Island,
especially eastern Long Island, can handle a fair amount of
rain, especially the long duration nature of the event. However,
if the NAM verifies, a period of heavy rain is possible the
first part of Saturday night, with over 2 inches of rainfall for
the south fork of Long Island in a 6 hour period. If models
trend west with the storm track, then western zones could have a
chance of minor flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has
placed southeast CT and central and easter Long Island in a
marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall from Friday
through Monday night.

As for winds, continue anticipating gusts to remain below
advisory thresholds, but it could come close across eastern LI
and SE CT late day Friday through Saturday morning.
However, there may be isolated incidents of downed trees and
power lines due to the heavy rain loosening the soil and
weighing down leaves in combination with breezy/windy
conditions.

It looks like they are not placing too much weight on the more consistent Euro.

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

It looks like they are not placing too much weight on the more consistent Euro.

There isn't a model that doesn't show a major east coast storm. GFS caved. 

[wthrmn654]

There weatherbriefing says still to much uncertainty. I'm tempted to message them in slack again but i don't wanna sound like a a-hole 

 

Sorry for spelling errors,I just woke up again and my eyes are cross eyed still lol

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Upton not even thinking a wind advisory let alone warning

Clueless

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, TriPol said:

There isn't a model that doesn't show a major east coast storm. GFS caved. 

Yep gfs shows alot of rain now for the coast. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6z ai Euro looks good for you guys to get a relatively high impact nor easter, I feel like it's been a while since NYC had one.

[Brian5671]

Utpon will have alot of changes today unless models back off...

[bluewave]

Will be interesting to see where the heaviest banding sets up as the GFS and RGEM are going 10”+ but in different areas.

 

 

[wthrmn654]

I was going thatch and resseed yard and said nope not with all the leaves about to fall.  Great day to wash the house off for the season

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, TriPol said:

They're waiting for the GFS to decide what it wants to do. If the 12z GFS does what the 0z GFS did, then they'll change.

Don S. in the main September thread is also downplaying this event and I agree with him especially for areas west of Long Island - Long Island and southern/eastern New England remain the regions where heavy flooding rains are more likely. Along the coast down to the Delmarva -coastal flooding -beach erosion -high waves and high winds are the main concern. Upton and Mt. Holly are doing the right thing by down playing it at this time also IMO. 

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Will be interesting to see where the heaviest banding sets up as the GFS and RGEM are going 10”+ but in different areas.

 

 

Would be another disaster around here if we get 6-10 inches of rain...ground is saturated

[NJwx85]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

Thanks. But how do you explain a 1000/500 mb thickness max of >576 dm and 700 mb height max both at the center if it is cold core? That almost has to be warm core.

It’s not warm core and anyone that says it is is just hyping. Warm core cyclones don’t behave like this. 

[Prue11]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Would be another disaster around here if we get 6-10 inches of rain...ground is saturated

Nobody should want more rain now