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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Mt. Holly radar indicating 65-75kt winds on those storms running through I-81 in PA. If they can manage to congeal into a line and get a cold pool behind them, watch out N NJ/NYC.

Pretty close to being a line now 

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Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448...

Valid 032231Z - 040030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 448 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds is increasing across eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York (including the New York City metro), and northern New Jersey as storms approach the coast.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KBGM and KDIX depict an initially broken band of thunderstorms beginning to show the early signs of cold pool amalgamation and upscale growth. Concurrently, increasing MRMS VIL values and cooling cloud-top temperatures have been observed over the past hour, further hinting that organization/intensification is occurring. More recently, a 75 mph gust was observed at Scranton, PA.

Regional VWPs from central NY have been sampling fairly strong (40-50 knot) mid-level winds that are supporting stronger deep-layer wind shear than depicted by recent RAP mesoanalyses, and is likely promoting the recent intensification trend. Consequently, given the development of a deeper/more cohesive cold pool and strong deep-layer shear in proximity to ongoing convection, it seems likely that the potential for severe winds (most likely 55-75 mph) will persist downstream for the next couple of hours as storms approach the coast. Based on latest storm tracks, this band should reach the NY/NJ coast within the next 2-3 hours

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Yikes

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

 

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...

  Southeastern Morris County in northern New Jersey...

  Northeastern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...

 

* Until 800 PM EDT.

 

* At 736 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Mendham, or

  near Morristown, moving southeast at 50 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR SOUTHEASTERN MORRIS COUNTY.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

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