2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[WxUSAF]

Going to need to expand the STW into MD quickly…

[high risk]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Going to need to expand the STW into MD quickly…

Certainly sounds like SPC is going to issue a new box over us soon. 

[batmanbrad]

yep latest MCD from SPC says a downstream watch coming... that line certainly doesn't look like it's getting any weaker and the timing is pretty good since peak heating is a few hours away...

[SnowenOutThere]

From my amateur SPC mesoanalysis skills I think that our region might get a bit screwed from the storm complex, at least when it comes to maximizing our severe threat. The best shear looks to be to the northeast of our area, alongside the best ML lapse rates. The instability gradient additionally rides right along Baltimore. Think that MD might be able to cash in but I'd be worried about the storms riding that gradient if I was in NOVA.  

[yoda]

Watch up until 5pm

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 643
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Maryland
     Northern Virginia
     The Eastern West Virginia Panhandle
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1140 AM
     until 500 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A well-organized thunderstorm cluster should continue to
   pose some threat for scattered damaging winds as it moves quickly
   southeastward this afternoon. Occasional hail may also occur with
   the strongest cores.

[yoda]

 

[WxUSAF]

Figure this will be an “everybody gets a warning” event?

[aldie 22]

Looks like i got my inch extension west how about the line get a little thicker now

[Kmlwx]

The western part of the line near Bedford, PA has some of the highest echo tops and plenty of lightning. Could be a good sign for those a bit more on the fringe. Also, guidance has had runs where it had the stuff going almost south or even southwest a bit. 

[mappy]

Have maybe 20 min before it hits. Just warned Mr Map to save his work hahaha

[AlexD1990]

fringed!

[mattie g]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Figure this will be an “everybody gets a warning” event?

If I’m in a watch then yeah…they’re just handing them out like trophies at a youth soccer tournament.

[mappy]

Not much gust front out ahead of it. Barely a breeze. Lots of thunder 

[mappy]

Waiting for the shelf to emerge before I get rained on 

[mappy]

Not the prettiest shelf. Got dark real quick 

[mappy]

Pretty tame wind wise, but very electric and pouring rain. Hope yall cash in too! 

[aldie 22]

Western side getting a bit fugly

[Kmlwx]

Outflow evident on radar now

[mitchnick]

Got a touch over .6" in the last 40 minutes with more rain to come. I guess an inch is possible based on radar, but that may be stretching it.

[tstate21]

Storm near Glen Arm into Perry Hall likely should be tor warned or at least tor possible language in the STW at this point. 

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Western side getting a bit fugly

Lack of lightning tells the tale

[biodhokie]

 

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Lack of lightning tells the tale

Nothing severe here, but it is another Frederick downpour. Latest drought monitor is now showing only pockets of moderate drought. Extremely efficient summer in the rain dept.

[Paleocene]

Looks like incoming for south of i-70 across central maryland ... now til the next hour or so

[adelphi_sky]

Been a while for me to be staring down a guaranteed hit. I guess it's easier with storms coming from the North.    Thankful for the lack of wind and lightening in the line. Need a good soaker though.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Lightning pretty much died down on much of the line. Meh.

[yoda]

Enhanced Risk was added on 1630z OTLK up in PA/NY

[dailylurker]

Oh look. A dieing line on my doorstep. At least I got my thundershower warning lol

[jewell2188]

Going to be pretty disappointing if this is it and done for the day.