2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[yoda]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

This line is booking east. Latest warnings from Sterling have movement at 50 mph.

Might see a few quick weak spin ups as the line interacts with the retreating WF

[yoda]

Some small storms beginning to fire ahead of the line 

[vortex95]

That sharp CAPE gradient (attached) the modeled show ydy has verified well.  Notice IAD has 74 Td and HEF 76 Td but DCA 69.  925 mb Td gradient evident as well (also attached).  No PWAT gradient though, bull's-eye 2.2+ centered right over DC metro!

The cells forming ahead of the line, have to watch those when they cross this gradient as storm boundary interaction is often key for svr/tor.

Also, if the gust front fans out well ahead of the line, how will that affect the Td and CAPE gradient?  Bodily push it E?  Bow echo often ride parallel to boundaries, but slamming into it perpendicularly?  I don't know.
 

[mitchnick]

Mts seem to be beating the line up a bit.

[midatlanticweather]

This storm popped up in Purcellville is dumping rain!! Man! Lots of water being rung out.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

Some decent velocities showing up in the Stephen’s city line segment

[wxdude64]

Measured two separate 53 mph gusts with line that just moved thru here, rocking! 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Measured two separate 53 mph gusts with line that just moved thru here, rocking! 

Where are you located if you don't mind me asking?

[Ephesians2]

Charlottesville is the storm magnet this month. Seems like every time I check the radar to see if I am finally getting rain down here, there is a cell over Charlottesville.

[Eskimo Joe]

.CHO storms go brrr

[WVclimo]

Loud thunder, several nearby CG strikes, and very heavy rainfall here with some small hail mixed in.  No wind at all though.

[SolidIcewx]

Hook on that storm in FFXC

[87storms]

Looks like a fizzler up here. Congrats to Moco/DC.

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Where are you located if you don't mind me asking?

Alleghany County VA. Between Covington and Clifton Forge. 

[wxdude64]

50 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Charlottesville is the storm magnet this month. Seems like every time I check the radar to see if I am finally getting rain down here, there is a cell over Charlottesville.

The storm that came thru here about 45-50 minutes ago should be knocking on your door any minute. 

[jewell2188]

Happy that severe watch and flood watch verified lolI’m 

[Kmlwx]

So far this is matching HRRR that did show that "bow" but if you looked at the wind gust product on those runs - there was almost no severe wind with it. 

[vortex95]

HRRR fcst radar is good, but just not getting the svr.

That strong finger of CAPE just to the W of DC verified.  925 dew points and PWATs have increased over the entire area last few hr (big 2.3" PWAT now over all of DC area).   DCA dew point went from 69 to 74.  35 kt 0-6 km shear.  So I don't get!  And it's not the DC split, its everywhere!  Even the CGs are MEH!
 

[wxmeddler]

5 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

HRRR fcst radar is good, but just not getting the svr.

That strong finger of CAPE just to the W of DC verified.  925 dew points and PWATs have increased over the entire area last few hr (big 2.3" PWAT now over all of DC area).   DCA dew point went from 69 to 74.  35 kt 0-6 km shear.  So I don't get!  And it's not the DC split, its everywhere!  Even the CGs are MEH!

Poor lapse rates and all of the 0-6km shear is in the lowest 2km. 2-8km shear is near zero. Water loading (updrafts on top of downdrafts due to lack of shear) and no CAPE = showers.

[jewell2188]

It all equals fail for the mid-Atlantic is what it means. The watches etc from the NWS are ridiculous and have been for a while now. This evening is a perfect example of why the general public take weather as a joke around here. 

[weatherCCB]

10 minute shower here

[dailylurker]

Clouds all day and storms coming from the due west pretty much always end this way. Heavy rain events come from the SE and south, not west. My gut was right today. This summer has been such a tease with all the watches and warnings. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

This summer has been such a tease with all the watches and warnings. 

and Flood Watches. A bust here so far in terms of rainfall.

I understand how  @CAPE  feels.  

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

and Flood Watches. A bust here so far in terms of rainfall.

I understand how  @CAPE  feels.  

Maybe we can do ok overnight.  The WV MCS looks solid.  Nocturnal sometimes makes a sig difference, at least for big rains.

[vortex95]

48 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Poor lapse rates and all of the 0-6km shear is in the lowest 2km. 2-8km shear is near zero. Water loading (updrafts on top of downdrafts due to lack of shear) and no CAPE = showers.

I was hoping low-level mesos from the shear could compensate here.  Dir shear sfc-850 is excellent.

[GATECH]

Most intense lightening display of the year here.  House shock so bad a picture frame fell off the wall…first time that has happened since the earthquake!

 

[GATECH]

Tor warning in PG county just across the river from Mount Vernon.  No wind here with the storm, same storm battering us with constant lightening…about 2 miles away

[GATECH]

Tornado Warning
MDC017-033-170115-
/O.NEW.KLWX.TO.W.0045.260817T0059Z-260817T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
859 PM EDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...
  North central Charles County in southern Maryland...

* Until 915 PM EDT.

* At 858 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Fort Belvoir, moving southeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  southwestern Prince Georges and north central Charles Counties,
  including the following locations... Pomfret, Bryans Road, and
  Accokeek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 7710 3867 7708 3860 7697 3856 7704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 322DEG 20KT 3865 7708

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

CJL

 

[GATECH]

…doing Yoda’s job tonight

[GATECH]

Registered 2000 lightening strikes within 25 miles of the house here in the last 45 minutes.  This storm is certainly electric!