Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[nycwinter]

my ideal time for spring to arrive is sometime in mid may..

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, if this misses-onto spring. I’m done with the teases, minor events gone in a day and black ice piles in the parking lots. 

looks cold for a couple weeks but hopefully we break and March is warm...wishful thinking probably

[SACRUS]

 

UKMET 

[jm1220]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

UKMET 

Yeah, that ain’t gonna do it. If the Euro comes in flat again I think the fat lady starts warming up. 

[Wxbear25]

For reference, if you want to see what I’m talking about when I say this isn’t set in stone, take a gander at the 500mb vort chart between the 00z UKMET at hour 87 and 12z UKMET at hour 75 lol

[nycsnow]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

UKMET 

Gfs really on it’s own 

[jm1220]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Gfs really on it’s own 

I’d bet against 36” of snow in DC but hey… that’s just me. 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I’d bet against 36” of snow in DC but hey… that’s just me. 

JB still going 6-12 up to Boston 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

JB still going 6-12 up to Boston 

He hangs on too long...surely he sees the ridge being too far east?   Not to mention the seasonal trend

[MarcmmKU]

16 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ready for spring. Done with this overhyped dry and cold winter once this misses 

We got lucky with that warm air advection storm january but otherwise yea kinda a mediocre winter from the standpoint of snowfall. All that cold only for nyc to finish 8" below seasonal averages :/

[winterwx21]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Keep trending east and get that trough over us!!

At least we still have the possibility of getting a snowfall with a coastal storm miss if we can get an inverted trough. 

[nycsnow]

Gefs supporting the op

[Wxbear25]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah, that ain’t gonna do it. If the Euro comes in flat again I think the fat lady starts warming up. 

It improved initially with the shortwave being stronger over the Midwest and the feature over SE Canada being less involved

BUT it got significantly worse in that it slowed down that energy diving into the northern plains, allowing that initial S/W to suppress heights

Ultimately, we need less interaction in SE Canada and both of those Midwest shortwaves to phase and dance around eachother

the GFS catches that initial wave and shoots it northward before incorporating it into the upper level feature

other models, like the UK and euro shoot that out ahead which drives the low and baroclinic zone eastward away from the coast before our big ULL can interact with it

[EastonSN+]

Unfortunately the inverted trough did not move east enough on the ukmet. 

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, MarcmmKU said:

We got lucky with that warm air advection storm january but otherwise yea kinda a mediocre winter from the standpoint of snowfall. All that cold only for nyc to finish 8" below seasonal averages :/

Most of the area is average to slightly above average. As always Central Park is too low. I'm at 30 inches here -- that's a pretty good snowfall winter and it might not be over. 

[MarcmmKU]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d bet against 36” of snow in DC but hey… that’s just me. 

LOL yeah. Do we trust every model with an offshore solution or the one model on an island showing 30+" for washington dc of all places. Hmm tough decision.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

At least we still have the possibility of getting a snowfall with a coastal storm miss if we can get an inverted trough. 

I have already moved on to hoping this is further out to sea to allow the trough to pivot over us. Some areas had a foot of snow in eastern NE with the last trough.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Most of the area is average to slightly above average. As always Central Park is too low. I'm at 30 inches here -- that's a pretty good snowfall winter and it might not be over. 

Will likely have one last window mid March considering the MJO wave.

[MarcmmKU]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Will likely have one last window mid March considering the MJO wave.

March snow is not really a thing anymore for the coastal plain

[wthrmn654]

31 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

the run isn't even done

You literally said cmc looks like crap just before he posted it looks crappy... 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Will likely have one last window mid March considering the MJO wave.

Ready for spring in some with tracking after this, feel like tracking has just been getting worse and worse this winter lol

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, Wxbear25 said:

It’s not worse. Don’t worry about precipitation depiction verbatim, worry about what it looks like aloft where it did improve.

we’re getting to the point where the surface and precip depiction will actually matter, but we’re not there just yet

The cyclical roller coaster here when catching up on the thread after a few hours is something to behold.  It goes from it's looking bad, it's looking worse, looks really bad, throw in the towel, followed almost immediately by some model which suddenly gives hope, followed by a few more that follow suit, followed by more that show no storm, followed by heated debate, followed by a model that says GAME ON",  then some quiet... and then... repeat.  Every 90 minutes or so.

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

It improved initially with the shortwave being stronger over the Midwest and the feature over SE Canada being less involved

BUT it got significantly worse in that it slowed down that energy diving into the northern plains, allowing that initial S/W to suppress heights

Ultimately, we need less interaction in SE Canada and both of those Midwest shortwaves to phase and dance around eachother

the GFS catches that initial wave and shoots it northward before incorporating it into the upper level feature

other models, like the UK and euro shoot that out ahead which drives the low and baroclinic zone eastward away from the coast before our big ULL can interact with it

Just has that theme of 700 cooks in the kitchen which overall ruin the setup and cause it to fail to consolidate or amplify in time. One or two get better, one or two get worse. We need to stop having these over convoluted setups with a vortmax/piece of energy within 2 inches of the next one. That’s been the theme of every one of these setups since Jan 2022, and even that one dealt with convective issues which prevented it from consolidating in time for a major impact in NYC. 

[MJO812]

Every model isnt that far away from the gfs except the euro

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Every model isnt that far away from the gfs except the euro

Anthony, you go back and forth wayyyy to much brother..... you need to take a breather LOL

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

March snow is not really a thing anymore for the coastal plain

That is this decade since it seems to alternate. 

90s a lot of March snowstorms.

2000s very few.

2010s a lot of March Snowstorms.

2020s not many

That being said there is no reason the coastal plain cannot get one this decade. 

 

 

[Snowman92]

Wait till at least friday night to write this storm off. Still early for now. 

 

This could still be maybe a strip of 3 to 6" for the region which is still fine to close out the winter

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Ready for spring in some with tracking after this, feel like tracking has just been getting worse and worse this winter lol

I want summer. I love warm weather but spring here is horrible. Especially April.

[Brian5671]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I want summer. I love warm weather but spring here is horrible. Especially April.

yeah it's like pulling teeth most years to get anything decent outside of a day or two in April

[Wxbear25]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Just has that theme of 700 cooks in the kitchen which overall ruin the setup and cause it to fail to consolidate or amplify in time. One or two get better, one or two get worse. We need to stop having these over convoluted setups with a vortmax/piece of energy within 2 inches of the next one. That’s been the theme of every one of these setups since Jan 2022, and even that one dealt with convective issues which prevented it from consolidating in time for a major impact in NYC. 

Yup. Unfortunately it’s definitely not a “clean” setup here which results in mayhem for both us and the models

Threading one needle is hard enough, but with this kinda system we need to thread like 3 or 4 for it to reach its max potential, which still is quite high

not impossible, and threading a couple may result in a decent snowfall in its own right… but I wouldn’t bet on the GFS at this point