February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[SnowGoose69]

One thing I have definitely noticed with the AI models beyond 120 is they tend to deviate less wildly from their ensemble average.  The GFS/Euro Op have been showing December 2015 like ridges the last 2 days late in their runs at times.  The AI GFS/Euro seem to look way more like the ensemble mean and that has been the case most of the winter.

[NorthShoreWx]

55 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

 

If this verifies, another "one inch blizzard" effect on Saturday, like 2/2/1976?

Forecast for Staten Island - NWS

Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Southwest wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

 

Saturday A 30 percent chance of snow before noon. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny and cold, with a temperature rising to near 19 by 10am, then falling to around 13 during the remainder of the day. Windy, with a northwest wind 14 to 19 mph increasing to 28 to 33 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph.

 

The flash freeze from heavy rain and 35 to heavy snow in the mid teens 2 hours later is what did the damage in 1976.  The worst that will happen this time is some briefly reduced visibility.  

[MJO812]

Nice

[Wxbear25]

Tapatalk is literally the worst app ever invented

 

As I was saying, get that massive cutoff to slide into the 50/50 position with that energy ejecting out of the southwest and it would make me very happy

[SnowGoose69]

Its quite amazing how much that SER feature has flattened from 2/11-2/13 the last couple of days, even for places way down south, its like 2/09 and 10 are now the only really much above days in there

[nycsnow]

Hopefully GFS has a clue

[Stormlover74]

Wonder if upton will follow mt holly and issue an extreme cold watch. Wind advisory also would seem likely 

[IrishRob17]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wonder if upton will follow mt holly and issue an extreme cold watch. Wind advisory also would seem likely 

They had mentioned it in their dicussion I read this morning.

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Nice

Just another solution that has little support from any other model - I don't question the track though since all the blocking to the north will prevent cutters through next week at least

[Jt17]

Nice

Verbatim would get us nicely above avg for the season. Not counting on it. lol


.

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Verbatim would get us nicely above avg for the season. Not counting on it. lol


.

Its all alone.

With that said I do think we see something between the 11th and 16th. Who knows when or precip type

[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its all alone.

With that said I do think we see something between the 11th and 16th. Who knows when or precip type

Yeah who knows about later next week, but at least we know we have the light snowfall coming for tomorrow night into Saturday morning. NAM still looks pretty good. The Euro run that just came out gives us about an inch. The long range HRRR gives us about an inch. Our area still seems on track for a 1 inch snowfall. I want another big snowstorm, but the light snowfalls are nice too. 

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

We've been on the warmer side of those fluctuations.  Not withstanding the previous couple of winters, we're below normal for number of single digit days.

I’ve had almost just as many single digit numbers as 2015 but I’m in “pine barrens” area 

[SnoSki14]

I imagine we could see some heavy squalls with the Arctic front. Some local accumulations of up to 2" wouldn't surprise me. 

[Stormlover74]

Upton issued an extreme cold watch

[psv88]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

21⁰ this am.  Consistent unusual disparity here this winter.

12 here

[lee59]

If we get an inch or two of snow Friday night into Saturday, then the brutal cold and wind, could be like a near blizzard at times with blowing snow.

[Volcanic Winter]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I imagine we could see some heavy squalls with the Arctic front. Some local accumulations of up to 2" wouldn't surprise me. 

That last one was epic, I'd love to buy a repeat.

Also 12 overnight, 35 now. While above freezing this week I haven’t even sniffed close to a normal high temp in so long it feels very significant. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

By my count, that is 64th place.  There are 63 streaks longer than this one.  Of course each additional day moves it up a bunch.

I use dense rank sorting which doesn’t skip rank numbers.

DENSE_RANK is a SQL window function that sorts data and assigns consecutive rankings to rows, ensuring no gaps in the sequence, even when ties occur. If multiple rows share a rank (e.g., two rows are ranked 1), the next rank is 2, not 3. It is essential for top-N analysis without skipping rank numbers. 

Key Aspects of DENSE_RANK:

• No Gaps: If two rows tie for rank 1, the next rank is 2, not 3.
• Ties: Identical values receive the same rank.
• Syntax: DENSE_RANK() OVER ([PARTITION BY <columns>] ORDER BY <columns>).
• Use Case: Ideal for top-N analysis where multiple rows might share the same top value, but you still want a continuous ranking order. 

 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I use dense rank sorting which doesn’t skip rank numbers.

DENSE_RANK is a SQL window function that sorts data and assigns consecutive rankings to rows, ensuring no gaps in the sequence, even when ties occur. If multiple rows share a rank (e.g., two rows are ranked 1), the next rank is 2, not 3. It is essential for top-N analysis without skipping rank numbers. 

 

Key Aspects of DENSE_RANK:

• No Gaps: If two rows tie for rank 1, the next rank is 2, not 3.
• Ties: Identical values receive the same rank.
• Syntax: DENSE_RANK() OVER ([PARTITION BY <columns>] ORDER BY <columns>).
• Use Case: Ideal for top-N analysis where multiple rows might share the same top value, but you still want a continuous ranking order. 

 

 

It is a misleading way to rank.
 

I don't say that saying you're misleading, just when you have these come out ranked with this numbers it doesn't give a true indication of where a specific year, date, or sequence of days really stands historically.

[jm1220]

38 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If we get an inch or two of snow Friday night into Saturday, then the brutal cold and wind, could be like a near blizzard at times with blowing snow.

Nice little refresher hopefully. 

[TheClimateChanger]

20 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It is a misleading way to rank.
 

I don't say that saying you're misleading, just when you have these come out ranked with this numbers it doesn't give a true indication of where a specific year, date, or sequence of days really stands historically.

I'm with you guys. This way of ranking makes zero sense to me. I saw Paul/Chesco do the same thing with his 20-day snow cover streak. Turning what was really tied for 36th place with 4 other years into the #22 longest streak, so it went from being something that would occur once every three years [probably even more frequent when accounting for missing data - not sure he actually has 132 years of full data] to much more significant. This gets even more ridiculous the further down the line you go as there are more and more tied values.

So it's actually 64th longest sub-40 streak (of 157 years), which is barely above the median - meaning it should occur, on average, nearly every other year, maybe more like 2 out of every 5. Ignoring all the tied values catapults it into some sort of significant cold spell. 18th makes it sound like it's nearly 90th percentile (maybe 1 every 9 years or so).

One could imagine a scenario where there are three record cold months tied at 18.9F, and the month ends at 19.2F. Why should it be considered second coldest just because the three colder months happened to end tied at the same value? There's no difference than if the three colder months had instead been 18.7, 18.9, and 19.0F.

[SACRUS]

 

Last 4 days "warmup"

EWR:
2/2: 37 / 15 (-2) 
2/3: 36 / 17 (-6)
2/4:  35/26 (-2)
2/5:  32 * so far

 

NYC:
2/2: 35 / 14 (-3)
2/3: 33 / 23 (-6)
2/4: 33 / 26 (-4)
2/5:  31 * so far

[RU848789]

NWS has slowly crept up the snowfall amounts over the last 2 days, from <1/2" to <1" to 1"+.  I know it's not a lot, but 1" of snow with temps in the 20s is going to accumulate on every surface and won't melt much during the day on Saturday with temps falling through the teens, so even 1" will impact driving.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I would be remiss without noting this is day 52 with snow cover in Orange County surpassing last years total seasonal of 51 days.

43.0 inches of snow now ytd which already surpassed last years rather measly 32.8 inches.

It's a solid A winter right now. Will see how it finishes up the next 7 weeks to see if it can retain its grade.

[Volcanic Winter]

I haven’t tracked pack days here but I know for sure it’s the best down here since the 2013-2015 block. 

Give me a nice refresher with this clipper and then possibly one more moderate event and this is an outstanding, top grade winter for me - again cold and winter “vibes” counts near equal to snow in my book. Driving over the bridge on 37 going to my parents and seeing the frozen Barnegat Bay for a couple weeks now, it’s fantastic. 

My evaluation improves when I’m not frequently going, “wait what season are we in?” All sensory input points to “real winter” and I’m a happy camper. Not as mathematical/empirical and more an abstraction for me. 

[the_other_guy]

The sun is real warm even on these 33° days. The end is near boys. 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

The sun is real warm even on these 33° days. The end is near boys. 

Well sure, the sun is a giant fusion reactor in the form of a glowing ball of plasma - it damn sure’s going to feel warm in unobstructed sunlight  .

That said, February is still a real winter month and I’m picky, not a fan of March and never have been. To me that’s when winter feels over. Let’s see how the next few weeks progress. 

[winterwx21]

32 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS has slowly crept up the snowfall amounts over the last 2 days, from <1/2" to <1" to 1"+.  I know it's not a lot, but 1" of snow with temps in the 20s is going to accumulate on every surface and won't melt much during the day on Saturday with temps falling through the teens, so even 1" will impact driving.  

I would think snow ratios will be a little better than 10:1 too. It won't surprise me if we pull off 1.5" here. 

[Nibor]

25 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I would be remiss without noting this is day 52 with snow cover in Orange County surpassing last years total seasonal of 51 days.

43.0 inches of snow now ytd which already surpassed last years rather measly 32.8 inches.

It's a solid A winter right now. Will see how it finishes up the next 7 weeks to see if it can retain its grade.

It’s been a good winter. A return to form. Still have most of February and early March left.