SnoSki14 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Whatever happens it definitely gets more active next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Jt17 said: Euro has a big time storm for 2/14 at 12z . still 10 days away chances it will verify are low at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 still 10 days away chances it will verify are low at this pointYea strong storm signal though most runs the last 2 days. They were rainy at first, but trended snowier today. Something to keep an eye on. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Some of the AI models are now starting to suggest a scenario where the northern stream system on Feb 11-12 cuts off and slows down, underneath a block over NE Canada (held in place by the upper low east of Newfoundland) which connects with ridging in the central US. Low probability scenario for now, but most ensemble guidance at least suggests a northern stream system passing through with light precip during that time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 MJO not favorable currently for a big northeast snow event. In phase 2 predicted to progress thru 3,4,5,6 thru now to March 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 The cold/wind combo is going to make this weekend probably feel colder than what we've experienced so far. Wind chills of -15 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: MJO not favorable currently for a big northeast snow event. In phase 2 predicted to progress thru 3,4,5,6 thru now to March 4th. We have had snow in those phases. Active pattern coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The cold/wind combo is going to make this weekend probably feel colder than what we've experienced so far. Wind chills of -15 As far as CP is concerned I'd be surprised if minimum does not dip below the season minimum to date of 9. Not expecting a 0 in the park but would think on the order of 5, 6 or 7 is well within reach. Cold air trajectory is very favorable along snow covered ground all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: NAM seems to not understand the concept of downslope....I think the eastern parts of the area have a better chance of seeing over 1 inch with this Proving that it has zero value beyond warm nose events and that’s it. Just utterly useless for everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. Trucks were still moving the snow piles around this AM in the parking lots. Like I said this snow would have a disproportionate impact because of the sleet driven into it making it a lot denser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I think mid-next week (Feb 11-12) definitely bears watching. UKMET hinting at it too now.https://x.com/yconsor/status/2019130515606155376 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. Massive town owned snowblowers still clearing snow from roads this morning in commack. Some 4 lane roads are still 2 lanes. poor job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Friday night into Saturday morning looks like a sneaky little system. I could see us getting 1-2” maybe 3” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Barely a warmup on gfsThe legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The legacy EPS and the EPS-AI are getting stronger and stronger with the -PNA PNA losing relevancy after mid Feb due to changing wavelengths. -PNA becomes more favorable for snows here than a +PNA by latter Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I took some time away from working from home this afternoon to use the snowblower to clear a path to the oil and propane fills. Looking ahead it looks like we will have a decent pack on the ground middle of the month when I am due for both! Snow was still pretty fluffy here and easy to move. About 9 inches still on the ground. Was happy I could cut through a big snow bank to the road though. I do feel bad for the oil men when people don't clear a path. I know it can't be fun searching for the fill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 43 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: PNA losing relevancy after mid Feb due to changing wavelengths. -PNA becomes more favorable for snows here than a +PNA by latter Feb. Yep we want a negative pna with blocking in place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The brief return to freezing temperatures hasn't been all that impressive. From the point where we went below freezing at 7pm on January 23, we were consecutively below freezing for 234 hours ending at 12:45 PM on Monday. Through now, there have been 9.5 hours out of the past 293 that have been at or above freezing with a maximum temperature of 34° : Monday 2/2 Above freezing from 12:45 - 4:50 pm (4 hours 5 minutes) - max temp 34° Tuesday 2/3 Above freezing 10:15 to 11:00am and 1:30 - 1:45 pm (1 hour total) - max temp 33° Today 2/4 Above freezing 11:10am - 3:30 pm (4 hours 20 minutes total) - max temp 34° Current temperature is 31.6° (3:58pm) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: The brief return to freezing temperatures hasn't been all that impressive. From the point where we went below freezing at 7pm on January 23, we were consecutively below freezing for 234 hours ending at 12:45 PM on Monday. Through now, there have been 9.5 hours out of the past 293 that have been at or above freezing with a maximum temperature of 34° : Monday 2/2 Above freezing from 12:45 - 4:50 pm (4 hours 5 minutes) - max temp 34° Tuesday 2/3 Above freezing 10:15 to 11:00am and 1:30 - 1:45 pm (1 hour total) - max temp 33° Today 2/4 Above freezing 11:10am - 3:30 pm (4 hours 20 minutes total) - max temp 34° Current temperature is 31.6° (3:58pm) Yep, the snow melt we’ve had is largely from the sun at a slightly higher angle every day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Snow was freezer burned last week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I’m satisfied with this winter. Two storms 6” +. Cold weather. Extended snow pack and apparently long island forgot how to deal with snow. Terrible cleanup. it isn't normal snow; it's the sleet. same here in nj; they are still digging and so am i; today i was able to clear the sump pipe to the street; whether it is frozen inside is another story. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 still plenty of snow on the sidewalks ground and in the streets here in nyc sanitation workers are piling them up in one huge pile so they can bring out the snow melting machines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 16 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: it isn't normal snow; it's the sleet. same here in nj; they are still digging and so am i; today i was able to clear the sump pipe to the street; whether it is frozen inside is another story. we'll see. You want the snow to pile up-obviously you want snow. You want the snow to stay around-you want sleet. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Here comes the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Here comes the gfs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Colder air will move back into the region tonight. As a result, tomorrow and Friday will see highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens. An even stronger surge of Arctic air will likely arrive for the weekend, possibly accompanied by some snow flurries or snow showers. Some areas could pick up a heavier snow squall. Highs on Sunday could be in the teens in New York City with lows in the single digits. The persistent and often severely cold pattern could break near February 10th. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely through at least mid-February. So far, January 20-February 2 has been the coldest two-week period this winter with a mean temperature of 21.0° in New York city. January 17-30 with 13.4" of snow has been the snowiest two-week stretch. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around January 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +31.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.454 today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, Santa Claus said: is that what you named the baby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 A very icy New Haven Harbor today. You can see the ice getting pushed up against the Pardee Seawall Park on the east shore. This is the most ice on the area waterways during the 2020s and will peak early next week. Ice shoves could become a concern in areas that get strong winds directly into the shore. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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