February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Weather Will]

Just now, yoda said:

Unfortunate on the 12z GFS on the 15th

WB 12Z GFS:  I take it as a positive that it shifted to the coast.  12 days for it to move northwest!

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Chris78 @CAPE we did need the pattern to relax some... the amount of blocking we had along with the +PNA -EPO was causing extreme suppression.  The one significant precipitation event we've had in the last month came during a temporary -PNA.  

And this is not uncommon.  I've said before that when I looked at every single 5"+ Baltimore snowstorm the majority of them did not come in frigid arctic regimes.  And it becomes even more apparent if you just look at the 10"+ storms.  There are several reasons for this.  Big storms ride the thermal boundary and that means they are usually along the rain/snow line...not in the middle of an arctic airmass!  We have to be somewhat near the warmth to win OR there has to be a wave amplifying enough to press the warm boundary back towards us!   Waves don't amplify in a cold NW flow regime!  There are some rare examples of super cold storms, we got one last week, but it requires so many rare things to time up perfectly...if that is the only way we get big snowstorms we would be in big big trouble.  

A lot of our big snowstorms came during periods that weren't that cold.  Feb 83, Feb 87, Jan 2000, Feb 2006, Feb 2010, Jan 2011, Feb 2014, March 2015, Jan 2016 all came during periods that weren't arctic cold right around the time of the storm and most of them we even had to worry if it would even be cold enough!  Way way way more of our big snowstorms come during "just cold enough" regimes not during our craziest coldest arctic airmasses.  Those tend to be dry.  We can luck our way into a frontal wave or weaker snow...smaller snowstorms are more common in these cold periods...and we've been perhaps unlucky not to get at least some of those during this latest period...but our true big snowstorms usually come during less cold periods.  

What's been especially frustrating over the last 10 years is a lot of the patterns that historically would provide us with chances of snowstorms...not cold but should be "just cold enough with a good track" ended up just too warm and when a perfect track system came alone it ended up a perfect track rainstorm.  But that doesn't change the equation. It's been so long since we had a big region wide snowstorm during a pattern like Feb 2006 or Feb 2010 that it seems some are starting to think we need some big EPO/PNA ridge induced arctic airmass to get a big snowstorm but that's never been our typical path to a big snow.  Most of our big snowstorms came during blocking regimes with a split flow under it and no arctic air anywhere (no NS to FCK up the flow) and some juiced up STJ wave came along with the perfect track and it was just barely cold enough to snow.  

To illustrate PSU's point the 12z GFS gives another fine addition to this collection 

[bncho]

slop storm on the GFS, but it's a strong slop storm

[snowfan]

24 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

OP GFS doesn't look cold at all during that time.  Does it or am I hallucinating?  

Its not extreme, but well below normal and WCs will be cold. 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Unfortunate on the 12z GFS on the 15th for most of us... Eastern Shore cleans up.  Idea is there tbh as others have mentioned 

Yeah, after a period of rain, they go to heavy snow.   lol.  This movie is on repeat.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

slop storm on the GFS, but it's a strong slop storm

 

[ravensrule]

12 hours ago, wxmeddler said:

The sleet really created a heck of a glacial layer that's got an enormously high albedo. That combined with the temps, this snow isn't melting for at least another 2-3 weeks.

Is Albedo the same thing as Libido?. 

[Bob Chill]

Not that I think the gfs is right during the 14-16 period but it's warm/rainy because the initial wave draws up warmth for the follow up. A more consolidated shortwave timed correctly could work out. Way too far away to worry about fine details in op runs but the window has some things going for it to produce. A warm front/waa snow could do something and a decent track after the cold front could be even better.

I'm probably too far south either way but there would be little surprise from me if it becomes a legitimate threat for the dmv. It's a typical luck/timing/chaos marginal setup. 

[Bob Chill]

For fun, the cmc is setting up for some kind of winter event in the east during the window... 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Unfortunate on the 12z GFS on the 15th for most of us... Eastern Shore cleans up.  Idea is there tbh as others have mentioned 

1. It's the GFS

2. You don't want to be in the bullseye this far out.

[poolz1]

Euro has the front runner that knocks down heights.  H5 looks like a decent passage south of us shortly after. Don't know what the surface looks like but a slight moral booster on today's runs.

[stormtracker]

Euro gets us pretty good

[stormtracker]

We back?!?  Awaiting avatar change

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

We back?!?  Awaiting avatar change

Maybe wait a few days given the rug pull track record?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO for NEXT Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[EHoffman]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We back?!?  Awaiting avatar change

Keep the new one it might be good mojo

[Scraff]

Nice! Let’s bring on the VD storm….says @ravensrule

[Heisy]

 

At this range it it’s just good to see that snow is possible in this pattern somewhere nearby. Not the best looking pattern but the OPs and Ais keep hinting at some frozen potential 14th-16th. Good to see

[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

At this range it it’s just good to see that snow is possible in this pattern somewhere nearby. Not the best looking pattern but the OPs and Ais keep hinting at some frozen potential 14th-16th. Good to see

Gimme the EUROAI 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gimme the EUROAI 

Thought that just showed a cutter this time? Lol

[Kevin Reilly]

35 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO for NEXT Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However this is totally how it snows here in February with more latent heat building to our south ready to be pulled over the top of fresh Arctic air!  It’s the timing that we need.  I like our chances after this week let the chaos begin on the models heading the next 12-14 days we will be tracking soon!

[mitchnick]

Can't tell if it's all snow, but EuroAI Eps looks threatening the weekend of the 14th.

[stormtracker]

39 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Maybe wait a few days given the rug pull track record?

Dude, I'm joking.  We're not back and it's going to be a rug pull.

[stormtracker]

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO for NEXT Saturday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Right

[Ji]

We back?!?  Awaiting avatar change

Start a thread by 5:45pm

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Start a thread by 5:45pm

6:40p after 18z Euro

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Can't tell if it's all snow, but EuroAI Eps looks threatening the weekend of the 14th.

Are the heavies centered over NC and the coast? If so, it's snow.

[Ji]

6:40p after 18z Euro

Dosent go out that far lol

[Heisy]

Thought that just showed a cutter this time? Lol

It has WAA thump event 13/14th range.

[psuhoffman]

It's a legit threat.  Not all longwave patterns are created equal.  Not all -PNA's are created equal.  A -PNA pattern without any blocking and a scorched N America with no cold air anywhere is never going to work, and that is what we've had when we've had a -PNA most of the time lately.  

A -PNA with blocking and a N America covered in snow and cold air left over could possibly work.  Yes it will be a warmer pattern, yea any wave COULD end up rain...but at least there will be waves coming at us and room for them to amplify.