February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Warmer as in closer to average after exiting the arctic or warmer as in our first 60 since December?

Looking at the next two weeks, some ensemble members do get us to the 60s particularly the middle to end of next week. Have to remember, however, that normal highs rise to the low 50s at the end of the month so 60 is not that much above normal. As everyone here knows, we will need much below normal temps for snow during the day as we approach the end of February and the EPS extended indicates that is possible.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

some ensemble members do get us to the 60s particularly the middle to end of next week

Well how do we know that won’t end up like those mega torches perpetually two weeks away that some ensembles were showing a month ago?

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

 

Yes, it will moderate around mid-month, I think that's been advertised for a bit now so no real surprise.  Also, keep in mind that mid-February max temperatures (looking at DCA) are pushing the upper 40s around that time period.  So getting into the 50s for a few or several days isn't exactly unusual or "winter cancel" territory.  Keep in mind, by the end of this upcoming weekend we will have had one of the most extreme and consistent cold spells in a long time, which will have lasted around 2 full weeks straight.  I think some perspective is lost with a bit of freaking out over a relaxing pattern simply because we've had such a prolonged period of very cold and well below freezing.  And if/when it turns colder and more favorable again, don't expect that we'll have the same level of cold at that point as what we've just experienced.  But we don't have it be that cold to score well the latter part of February and early March.  And despite what some on here feel, I personally don't mind a good snow event or two even in late February or March; who cares if it doesn't linger for a long time by that point, climatologically speaking.

The problem is when does it reload...and if we can manage an event VD/PD weekend with said relaxing pattern. If we don't ya start wondering about the rest of the month. I mean I don't read ensembles that well so maybe somebody can tell me if thet show cold coming back after next week. And a February SSW doesn't give me confidence because that was too little too late last time. But man I'd love a good snow event in late February--that would be almost historic given how rare it is  (I won't believe it till I see the calendar say February 21st-28th and it's snowing a few inches outside, lol)

[H2O]

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We had historic cold and can’t show for it. What are we doing here? 

We are here because a long time ago our respective parents decided to have wild hedonistic intercourse when it was snowing and 9 months later we were all born with the gene. 
 

It was historic cold and got a concrete snow pack. Most years this shit would be gone by now. We get days of 60s or rain. 
 

One day the doo doo pattern wont need perfect vorts and the doo doo models will show shit better from d7-5 so that we don’t feel like we keep getting effed without a reach around

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The problem is when does it reload...and if we can manage an event VD/PD weekend with said relaxing pattern. If we don't ya start wondering about the rest of the month. I mean I don't read ensembles that well so maybe somebody can tell me if thet show cold coming back after next week. And a February SSW doesn't give me confidence because that was too little too late last time. But man I'd love a good snow event in late February--that would be almost historic given how rare it is  (I won't believe it till I see the calendar say February 21st-28th and it's snowing a few inches outside, lol)

Could it just end up bleah the rest of the way with nothing?  Sure, it could.  But why must we practically assume it will?  Why assume that there isn't any kind of reload, in whatever form that takes, toward a colder and more favorable look?  Seems that's the general feeling here from several people.  I'm not ready to just say F-it, we're done, it was fun for 2 weeks in January and early February, see ya next winter!  And depending on what your definition (or anyone's definition) of a "good snow event" is, I'd hardly call that historic/rare for the latter part of February or the first part of March.  Maybe if one is HECS-hunting, but a nice warning-level event?  Not quite so rare or historic in that time period.

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Sure as hell worked this year. Lol Nothing's perfect, that's a fact, but when it comes to being the seasonal bullseye for snow, being the one for the first 1 or 2 events puts you in the "likely" category for the season imho. 2015 was an exception.  A very good one at that, but an exception nonetheless imho.

Persistence works more than 50% but it’s not enough to just rely on it. just off my head these winters featured significant pattern shifts and storm track changes 

1993, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2022

[Heisy]

Surprised @mitchnick didn’t post the 18z AiGFS for 14-15th. Maybe a touch too warm, but it times two waves pretty well

[Terpeast]

14 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Could it just end up bleah the rest of the way with nothing?  Sure, it could.  But why must we practically assume it will?  Why assume that there isn't any kind of reload, in whatever form that takes, toward a colder and more favorable look?  Seems that's the general feeling here from several people.  I'm not ready to just say F-it, we're done, it was fun for 2 weeks in January and early February, see ya next winter!  And depending on what your definition (or anyone's definition) of a "good snow event" is, I'd hardly call that historic/rare for the latter part of February or the first part of March.  Maybe if one is HECS-hunting, but a nice warning-level event?  Not quite so rare or historic in that time period.

As a glass half full kind of guy, I’m with you. 

The very fact that NC got their HECS should give us a lot of optimism about our future winters. We will get ours one of these winters, and many more to come.

Instead and unfortunately, some choose to look at it as a zero-sum game where we get mad when folks south of us are getting more snow than we do. 

I also don’t think we’re done with winter yet, but if we really are, we have an El Nino to look forward to. It’ll probably be a milder winter than the last two, but at least we’ll have our chances with an active STJ. 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The problem is when does it reload...and if we can manage an event VD/PD weekend with said relaxing pattern. If we don't ya start wondering about the rest of the month. I mean I don't read ensembles that well so maybe somebody can tell me if thet show cold coming back after next week. And a February SSW doesn't give me confidence because that was too little too late last time. But man I'd love a good snow event in late February--that would be almost historic given how rare it is  (I won't believe it till I see the calendar say February 21st-28th and it's snowing a few inches outside, lol)

If you think the lack of a blockbuster rare huge snowstorm Feb 20-28 is not just the product of a random chance distribution of a rare event over a limited sample then explain the causation. Finding some pattern in numbers means absolutely nothing if you can’t show there is causality and it’s not just an artifact or randomness.  

[Blizzard of 93]

22 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Surprised @mitchnick didn’t post the 18z AiGFS for 14-15th. Maybe a touch too warm, but it times two waves pretty well

People were so busy punting & canceling that they missed PD3 on the 18z AIGFS… Lol!

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Surprised @mitchnick didn’t post the 18z AiGFS for 14-15th. Maybe a touch too warm, but it times two waves pretty well

looks like rain to a 10-15 inch blizzard lol

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Surprised @mitchnick didn’t post the 18z AiGFS for 14-15th. Maybe a touch too warm, but it times two waves pretty well

thats a historic blizzard friend. All snow too

[Jake Wx]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats a historic blizzard friend. All snow too

good god

[snowfan]

That storm would be an I-81 special

[Terpeast]

Bad news, aigfs is an op model so little confidence in its blizzard scenario. 

The GOOD news is ensembles (including euro and ai euro) do have some support for that scenario by undercutting a s/w under HL blocking. The ens means is smoothed out, but if you can “read between the lines” you can see a sharper trough or ULL swing across the mid-south towards us from feb 13-16. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

People were so busy punting & canceling that they missed PD3 on the 18z Ai GFS… Lol!

we had a blizzard what would have been presidents weekend 1958 but the holiday was still called Washington’s Birthday then. 

[LeesburgWx]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats a historic blizzard friend. All snow too

Only 300 hours away

[stormtracker]

41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

People were so busy punting & canceling that they missed PD3 on the 18z AIGFS… Lol!

Because it’s a rope a dope

[mitchnick]

52 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Surprised @mitchnick didn’t post the 18z AiGFS for 14-15th. Maybe a touch too warm, but it times two waves pretty well

I've given up on anything reminding me of the gfs.

[Weather Will]

Neither the WB 18Z GEFS or its AI are showing cold enough air to support a snow storm on the weekend of the AI GFS blizzard on most of its members.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS AI actually has more cold  members the weekend of the potential storm.

[EastCoast NPZ]

39 minutes ago, snowfan said:

That storm would be an I-81 special

Those went extinct in the 90s.

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Neither the WB GEFS or its AI are showing cold enough air to support a snow storm on the weekend of the AI GFS blizzard on most of its members.

Just details to be worked.  Start a thread and see where is goes.  

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Just details to be worked.  Start a thread and see where is goes.  

Cape discussed this period several times.  When the time is right, the ensemble guru can make the call...