February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[snowfan]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

You posted 12z and 6z maps lol. 12z was way worse than 6z 

It was already corrected before you posted this.

[katabatic]

If anyone has an interest in coming out to the mountains next weekend, looks like we're going to get a solid upslope event. Conditions at the resorts are absolutely ideal as I'm sure you can imagine and stand to get even better after this week. Heading out soon to get some pics of the frozen waterfalls (another below zero night last night) at Swallow Falls and then on to Blackwater Falls.

 

 

[TSSN+]

Icon now shows 1/2-1” over us Wednesday. 

[Climate175]

Thanks to all who share their educated analysis and historical tidbits. Very appreciated! I've been learning a lot by reading this forum. Learning that El Niño can help, but it isn’t the make-or-break factor I originally thought for major snowstorms, as the 1996 event showed. I also heard that the Knickerbocker Storm occurred without an El Niño, and look at the impact it had. There are clearly other factors at play, so it really comes down to timing. Large-scale patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and similar climate oscillations also play a role. 

[MN Transplant]

The problem with this Wednesday thing is that any new snow is going to throw this area back into a mess, even with some melting on Tuesday.

[dailylurker]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

The problem with this Wednesday thing is that any new snow is going to throw this area back into a mess, even with some melting on Tuesday.

Wrong board. This board is looking for snow mayhem. 

Sorry for banter

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem with this Wednesday thing is that any new snow is going to throw this area back into a mess, even with some melting on Tuesday.

We were hoping for 20”+ storm. I don’t think we care about the mess from a 1-2” snow lol

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem with this Wednesday thing is that any new snow is going to throw this area back into a mess, even with some melting on Tuesday.

You've been away from Minnesota too long! 

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

6z gfs advertises the fear; cold dry followed by warm and rain in the extended, 

Since when is the GFS ever right  

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem with this Wednesday thing is that any new snow is going to throw this area back into a mess, even with some melting on Tuesday.

 Who cares about the mess bring on the snow 

[snowfan]

11 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem with this Wednesday thing is that any new snow is going to throw this area back into a mess, even with some melting on Tuesday.

Black ice every morning this week will present its own challenges for some. Throw on some powder wed morning = fun commute.

[MN Transplant]

16 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Wrong board. This board is looking for snow mayhem. 

Sorry for banter

 

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We were hoping for 20”+ storm. I don’t think we care about the mess from a 1-2” snow lol

 

9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Who cares about the mess bring on the snow 

You are big dog hunting in the wrong place!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

 

 

You are big dog hunting in the wrong place!

If ur worried about the mess made by snow maybe u need to move to Florida lol

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

 

You are big dog hunting in the wrong place!

I did that the first week of January on the Tug. 100" in 4 days thank you lol. I'm hunting wintery conditions to last as long as possible. We do warm a safe roads 99.9% of the year. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 12K NAM

[bncho]

12z GFS more north

edit: and east as well

[mitchnick]

Just now, bncho said:

12z GFS more north

 

[Weather Will]

Midweek 1-2; 1-3 would be great; we will see what happens.

[BlizzardNole]

25 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

If ur worried about the mess made by snow maybe u need to move to Florida lol

Funny thing about that is even Pensacola got a better snow (10") last year than we have had in 10 years here

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Wrong board. This board is looking for snow mayhem. 

Sorry for banter

Yeah its all about the snow. Not more road salt on your vehicle or yet another day schools will close lol.

I don't think there is any room for more salt on my Jeep.

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yeah its all about the snow. Not more road salt on your vehicle or yet another day schools will close lol.

I don't think there is any room for more salt on my Jeep.

Science: Road salt doesn’t work well below 15 degrees.

NWS: Tonight’s low will be 3. Tomorrow’s high will be 12.

DOT: We should put down more salt.

 

On topic, I’d gladly take a 2” powder coating on Wednesday.

[CAPE]

Probably should be a thread for the @WxUSAF weak ass frontal snow thing. Its something to track, just about in the short range, and for those who freak out over a jinx, the 'risk' is probably a coating to an inch.

[Paleocene]

My father in law who is here from Maine is befuddled by the salting. He says up there they mix in sand and only liberally salt slopes. Here MDOT and MCDOT are like the Romans after the third punic war.

That's banter. Aside, I agree we need a thread for the slop on weds 

 

[jonjon]

1 hour ago, katabatic said:

If anyone has an interest in coming out to the mountains next weekend, looks like we're going to get a solid upslope event. Conditions at the resorts are absolutely ideal as I'm sure you can imagine and stand to get even better after this week. Heading out soon to get some pics of the frozen waterfalls (another below zero night last night) at Swallow Falls and then on to Blackwater Falls.

 

 

Looks like its gonna be effin cold next weekend 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

The problem with this Wednesday thing is that any new snow is going to throw this area back into a mess, even with some melting on Tuesday.

It's a small price to pay for more snow. Others must learn to sacrifice for our glory.

[Terpeast]

I think the gfs is on its own for a northern band, there is cold press on the other models that will keep it central or south. Upside is what the NAM is showing, not surprisingly. Still a C-2” event, but whatever falls will stick immediately and be a more impactful event than if there was just bare grass on the ground.  

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

My father in law who is here from Maine is befuddled by the salting. He says up there they mix in sand and only liberally salt slopes. Here MDOT and MCDOT are like the Romans after the third punic war.

That's banter. Aside, I agree we need a thread for the slop on weds 

 

That's because they have way more events and sand much less expensive. And it's also messier. Not saying one is better than the other just talking what the facts are.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

We were hoping for 20”+ storm. I don’t think we care about the mess from a 1-2” snow lol

Big difference between 1-2 on bare grass and 1-2 on a mini glacier that will have barely melted.

[Solution Man]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

 

You trust that right, yeah 

[MDSnow93]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Probably should be a thread for the @WxUSAF weak ass frontal snow thing. Its something to track, just about in the short range, and for those who freak out over a jinx, the 'risk' is probably a coating to an inch.

To anyone who's superstitious on a science based forum - Your pennies are no good anymore, go find every fountain in the area and toss them in!