February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Jebman]

35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Huh? 6z gfs has shittyfrontalpassage snow. Little swath of 1-3”. Then about a foot 6 days later and ends the run with a HECS for Houston TX lol.

Please, no more wintry weather in south central TX.

I was super fortunate to never fall on that damn ice.

[aldie 22]

Wish my Greensboro meeting was today.   

[TSSN+]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Give me whatever the icon is smokin. 

[GreyHat]

35 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Looking at the 120 hr 500 level maps. 

The GFS has a positive or somewhat flat trough, whereas the ICON shows a neutral trough. 

EURO AIFS supports GFS  with the positive trough.

The GFS AI trough isn't as positive as the GFS and brings a little qpf to the MD area and south. 

This big system hitting our southern parts gets out of here.

 

[Ji]

Wish my Greensboro meeting was today.   

No you don’t. They might be in dry slot hell lol

[stormy]

Icon is out on a limb compared to others at 00 and 06 with that H5 look.

12z will be very interesting to see if it persists with the 180. 

[Climate175]

18 minutes ago, stormy said:

Icon is out on a limb compared to others at 00 and 06 with that H5 look.

12z will be very interesting to see if it persists with the 180. 

Yup.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

No you don’t. They might be in dry slot hell lol

You should be keeping an eye on the 11-12th window you claimed- on the ens runs. Stop looking at the ops.

I told you I would expand that window a bit.. the trough out west might work for us with the favorable NA look towards mid month.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

I was comparing surface maps at 120hrs on 6z Icon and Gfs.

Well lookie there there is the kicker coming southeast out of Canada both models. 

[Superstorm]

That ICON is not happening.

If the AIs don’t show it, I don’t believe it.


.

[frd]

58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You should be keeping an eye on the 11-12th window you claimed- on the ens runs. Stop looking at the ops.

I told you I would expand that window a bit.. the trough out west might work for us with the favorable NA look towards mid month.

 

As you stated, signs of some STJ in this period possibly.

 

 

 

 

[frd]

[mitchnick]

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.

[GreyHat]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.

The NAM shows a better trough but that Canada Lost likely will keep it south OTS.

That's the problem with the current one and this one. Let's hope these Canadian lows don't keep ruining it for us.

[Terpeast]

Looks like next week's event is a potential C-2" event for DC metro and south. As I said before, it's a minor event with minimal upside. Feb 10-15 window is the bigger one to watch, but starting to worry about too much ridging ahead of it. Hopefully the strong block should keep it south/wintry for us.

[stormtracker]

ICON finally gets a clue.  That was fun tho.

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nam's liking next week it seems. Good to know we have the 2 best models in support of our cause.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2026013112&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

We just need to move that GL low along before it crushes it.

We lost the illustrious ICON

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

ICON finally gets a clue.  That was fun tho.

2-3” still I’d take that and run 

[Chris78]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

2-3” still I’d take that and run 

100% where do I sign

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We lost the illustrious ICON

It still has a "storm" instead of the Gfs sunny skies.

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like next week's event is a potential C-2" event for DC metro and south. As I said before, it's a minor event with minimal upside. Feb 10-15 window is the bigger one to watch, but starting to worry about too much ridging ahead of it. Hopefully the strong block should keep it south/wintry for us.

Would be ironic if there is a huge storm and its rain after 4 weeks of relentless cold. Seen that outcome here over the past decades a few times. Thr block can be your best friend or worst enemy.  

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

2-3” still I’d take that and run 

Looks like that would be the best we'd due on the Nam thanks to that GL vort pressing down. We need that to move a little faster to get more than 2".

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It still has a "storm" instead of the Gfs sunny skies.

I just looked at H5...figured nothing was there

[stormy]

I'll take 3" from the ICON and be happy.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like that would be the best we'd due on the Nam thanks to that GL vort pressing down. We need that to move a little faster to get more than 2".

Better than nothing. I’d buy 

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ICON finally gets a clue.  That was fun tho.

It had a crazy phase with the NS energy diving south and the energy taking the southern route- not a likely outcome.

[stormy]

H5 is not far away from the EPS.

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, frd said:

Would be ironic if there is a huge storm and its rain after 4 weeks of relentless cold. Seen that outcome here over the past decades a few times. Thr block can be your best friend or worst enemy.  

It would be, and probably the worst case scenario in terms of impacts. With 2” liquid already frozen on the ground, a rainer would induce melting and flooding then a massize refreeze when cold rushes back in. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

It would be, and probably the worst case scenario in terms of impacts. With 2” liquid already frozen on the ground, a rainer would induce melting and flooding then a massize refreeze when cold rushes back in. 

Interesting happenings as you are aware way up top with the strat warming causing more pressure on the AO going forward. I read this will also manifest in Greenland blocking, almost re-cycles through the runs into late Feb.  

We just need for things to go right for us. I am almost tempted to think that mid to late Feb could feature another severe arctic outbreak  and powerful cyclone in the East.