Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

The NAM was a step in the right direction.

you're right the mixing went south at the warmest level, so that's a plus!

 

reggie was pretty cold at 18z let's see what it does in 15 min

[MJO812]

Fv3

3k Nam is also colder 

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

If the nam ends up being right then whats the point of using any other model if they all suck at sniffing out warm layers? 

Have to use models judiciously.  These storms come north - always. The models are late to the game - always.  And there will be a dry slot. 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

It was March 2017... NYC got 5 or so inches of sleet on top of a couple inches of snow. 2 inches of LQP. Lots of thundersleet... 

I believe central park had 7.5 inches before the thundersleet.

Up here in CT had 9.5 before the thunder sleet 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Fv3

3k Nam is also colder 

are they only discontinuing the regular nam or also nam 3k?

[Winterweatherlover]

I'm starting to have a love-hate relationship with this storm. 

[Prue11]

Monday afternoon when it’s all said and done, who will be disappointed? I don’t think anyone will overperform NWS projected amounts but underperforming is likely 

[Jt17]

Fv3
3k Nam is also colder 

lol wow


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[Blizzardo]

Lee Goldberg said yesterday... Your gonna see 2-3" per hour rates in areas

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Jt17 said:

lol wow


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that model FV3 sucks honestly but i hope it's right

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 00Z

NYC

QPF / Snow (Frz)

SREF (mean):  1.3 /  9.7
NAM:   1.2 / 4.7
ICON: 1.4 / 8.1
RGEM: 1.2 / 9.5
GFS: 1/3 / 11.1
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.1 / 9.8
GEFS:   1.5 / 10.3
UKMET: 0.9 / 7.4
GGEM: 1.3 / 9.1
Euro : 1.2 / 10.2
Euro AI AIFS: 1,2 / 11.0
 

[Jt17]

that model FV3 sucks honestly but i hope it's right

Looks more like most guidance than NAM does


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[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

that model FV3 sucks honestly but i hope it's right

They all suck! Lol

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Have to use models judiciously.  These storms come north - always. The models are late to the game - always.  And there will be a dry slot. 

Majority yes but not all the time.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Looks more like most guidance than NAM does


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i also think the NAM sucks. But it is good with the warm nose. It's a good sniffer for warm levels aloft! the best short term is hrrr and global is euro ai in my opinion mid term long term probably no model!

[Winterweatherlover]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Have to use models judiciously.  These storms come north - always. The models are late to the game - always.  And there will be a dry slot. 

This is why todays trends are concerning, i felt we needed a nice south shift today expecting the north tick tomorrow as is the case with SWFE, instead of cushion the models basically stayed steady today overall but now any north shifts tomorrow and NYC on south really could get shafted which I honestly didn't think possible all week. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Monday afternoon when it’s all said and done, who will be disappointed? I don’t think anyone will overperform NWS projected amounts but underperforming is likely 

given the hype, this is almost a certainty. big snows in the interior just aren't as sexy as big snows in the big cities, and icy weather in the south is just a disaster i don't wish on them. it really is almost futile until close to game time trying to predict this stuff. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The NAM was a step in the right direction.

I don't understand why people aren't seeing that?

[jm1220]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i also think the NAM sucks. But it is good with the warm nose. It's a good sniffer for warm levels aloft! the best short term is hrrr and global is euro ai in my opinion mid term long term probably no model!

It's overdone it at times. The first Dec clipper this year it overdid it. Hopefully it backs down at 6z or 12z tomorrow-the sleet line advances like bonkers probably because the front end thump sucks and would be shredded up. 

[SACRUS]

1/24 00z ICON run

 

v

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don't understand why people aren't seeing that?

Because it made a nice step at 12z and then went back at 18z so why would we believe this is anything but a wobble. I will say the NAM is still beyond it's ideal range and the rgem which tends to have a warm bias being colder is giving me a little hope, hopefully it holds at 0Z.

[WeatherGeek2025]

                                             SAVE US

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

This is why todays trends are concerning, i felt we needed a nice south shift today expecting the north tick tomorrow as is the case with SWFE, instead of cushion the models basically stayed steady today overall but now any north shifts tomorrow and NYC on south really could get shafted which I honestly didn't think possible all week. 

in times like this, i always think how the vast majority of folks will be relieved not to get all that snow. 8-12, if that happens in cnj, would still be considered way too much snow for many people. 

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I don't understand why people aren't seeing that?

it seems some people don't think it was enough of a step. but comments are all over the place.

[Blizzardo]

I really think the models were better 20 years ago. What happen?! What were those short range models? The Suny NMM , I forget but they were spot on... 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

it seems some people don't think it was enough of a step. but comments are all over the place.

It got worse snowfall wise. 3k might've been better but snowmaps aren't loading

[Jt17]

I really think the models were better 20 years ago. What happen?! What were those short range models? The Suny NMM , I forget but they were spot on... 

Rosy retrospection


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[SACRUS]

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

in times like this, i always think how the vast majority of folks will be relieved not to get all that snow. 8-12, if that happens in cnj, would still be considered way too much snow for many people. 

I mean 8-12 inches is def still a lot of snow, no doubt. I'm thinking closer to 6-10 for CNJ/NYC at this point, 1010 wins actually calling for only 4-8 while NWS is calling for 10-14 so everything all over the place. I guess i overreacted because every model run all week has been 6+ for NYC metro and now the NAM is showing under 6 inches at the last moment.

[NorthShoreWx]

37 minutes ago, North and West said:

Has the NWS clarified if we should expect to receive puking or ripping snowfall rates?


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Ripping, except projectile vomiting in the I-84 corridor.