Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

12z GFS AI AIGFS

 

Ratio's will start higher beginning of storm and probably get lower as the storm progresses

[WeatherGeek2025]

Putnam county and north doesn't change over and gets pummeled!

[winterwx21]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Worst case we still see a significant amount of snow

Yeah with the airmass in place we know we'll at least see a very significant front end dump. It is kind of funny though (as Stormlover mentioned) that we went from worries about it possibly being suppressed with the brutal arctic airmass in place to now having mixing issues, but it's not a big surprise for this area. We've seen that many times before. It still should be our biggest snowstorm in years even if the mixing comes in a little more quickly. 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

According to pivotal maps its alot of sleet

as you zoom in  to regional yes I was only looking at national map but I think the primary doesn't get that far north - the strong  HP will cause the transfer earlier to the coast

[WeatherGeek2025]

i don't believe the CMC is right, that high pressure just can't get pushed like that from such a weak low pressure yes it's a big system but the pressure gradient isn't low enough for higher gradient to imbalance it that fast and strong! I call this run a bleep and I think it's either GFS or south

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

According to pivotal maps its alot of sleet

As of now the CMC has the furthest north solution.

The 6z EURO was further south than 0z so hopefully a hold. Still a lot of time left.

[SACRUS]

 

GGEM is 6-10 NYC with period of sleet.   GGEM does have a bit of a warm / nw tendency at this range.  Many of the good storms always have a period of sleet.

[Jt17]

Euro at 6z trended back a bit south another similar tick and a little slower and it would look more like the GFS.


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[NJwx85]

The Canadian is NOT a good model and I wouldn’t be concerned with it at all unless it started moving back towards a more suppressed look. It’s over amplifying the trough and not handeling the airmass to the North well.

[Stormlover74]

If ukie and euro follow suit its a legit concern

[Metasequoia]

Impressive model to model and run to run consistency, a few days out. Gives me some realistic hope...

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If ukie and euro follow suit its a legit concern

Even if the UK and Euro dont show this- with four days to go, its always a possibility with EC storms of this nature, but with the level of cold forecast i think we'll do quite well before / if any changeover occurs, regardless. 

[Snowlover11]

Big storms like this tend to shove the artic high away, not saying this is the case but it does throw up a red flag. We have seen it in the past.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Big storms like this tend to shove the artic high away, not saying this is the case but it does throw up a red flag. We have seen it in the past.

This is an expansive and unusually cold Arctic airmass this time. I think it'll be very difficult for low to plow through it. 

[forkyfork]

the precip will shut off before we can get much sleet

[Stormlover74]

Ukie doesn't look like cmc

[TriPol]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

If ukie and euro follow suit its a legit concern

The EURO won't 

[Wxbear25]

Ukie is definitely a little less amped than its 00z counterpart. Stronger confluence north, slightly lower heights east.

havent looked at the surface

the end is definitely less amped

 

soundings look like pure snow, even on LI

[SACRUS]

 

12Z GEFS total QPF mean Storm

 

[wishcast_hater]

This is an expansive and unusually cold Arctic airmass this time. I think it'll be very difficult for low to plow through it. 

I’m not worried but I have seen it go from single digits to rain in the 80s. It can happen.


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[winterwx21]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie doesn't look like cmc

Yep it does get a little mixing in here towards the end when the precip is lighter, but the damage has already been done. Nice hit on the UKMET. 

[Tatamy]

Ukie is a much different evolution as compared to 0Z.  It does mix with a little sleet but is still a big hit.

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Ukie doesn't look like cmc

FWIW the CMC has a history of being on the north side of the guidance at this stage.

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

12 UKMET Total QPF storm 

 

long duration

 

[Snowlover11]

Ukmet slaps us with 10-15”+ before a flip at the tail end.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

12Z Total QPF (Storm)  NYC 

ICON: 0.9 - 1.1
GFS: 1.1 - 1.3
GFS AI AIGFS: .09 - 1.1
GGEM: 1.1  (Partial sleet)
GEFS: 0.7 - 0.8
UKMET: 1.1 (some sleet)
 

Updated

[the_other_guy]

I love how we went from worrying about suppression to mixing in 24 hours.

 

Cant it ever be easy?

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Ukmet slaps us with 10-15”+ before a flip at the tail end.

There’s actually a burst of snow at the end.