forkyfork Posted Wednesday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:09 PM 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah but one that could maximize over our region and dump 2-4/per hour rates for a few hours and us close to a foot of snow. also the dgz runs from the surface to near 500mb with a ton of moisture slamming into it 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Wednesday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:10 PM 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: when this poster gets serious, i pay attention; i remember this quote from Jan 2016; "this is a storm for the ages.." Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM Forky in the house.. game on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:22 PM icon 12z is a big hit 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:25 PM 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This looks great. Let's get Namd! King NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:26 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Wednesday at 03:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:28 PM 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: A glorified SWFE If we get 12”+ from heavy dumping snow on the front end and an hour of some sleet at the end I don’t think anybody would complain and if you do you need help. Like I said before our bigger 2020-21 storms mixed at the end. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:33 PM Icon 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 03:33 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:33 PM ICOn 12z Total QPF storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:34 PM 12Z Total QPF (Storm) NYC ICON: 0.9 - 1.1 GFS: 1.1 - 1.3 GFS AI AIGFS: .09 - 1.1 GGEM: 1.1 (Partial sleet) GEFS: 0.7 - 0.8 UKMET: 1.1 (some sleet) Euro: 0.9 Euro AI AIFS: 0.9 - 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted Wednesday at 03:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:35 PM Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted Wednesday at 03:36 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:36 PM 9 minutes ago, SACRUS said: In case anyone isn't reading closely - that is only through 7 AM Sunday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted Wednesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:37 PM I think Don and Forky both buying is the new EE rule (if you know, you know). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Wednesday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:40 PM 3 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows . People need to stop using those maps and look at soundings to see if there are good chances for high ratios. If in doubt use 10-1. You want a saturated -12 to -18C layer and strong lift. Surface temps don’t determine ratios if you’re below freezing. 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Wednesday at 03:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:40 PM 5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows . 7-10" isnt anything to sneeze at - I think they'd be thrilled, I would be 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM Just now, jm1220 said: People need to stop using those maps and look at soundings to see if there are good chances for high ratios. If in doubt use 10-1. You want a saturated -12 to -18C layer and strong lift. Surface temps don’t determine ratios if you’re below freezing. I've tried... people like the pretty maps! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:41 PM it's been so long since we've had this 14 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted Wednesday at 03:44 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:44 PM The general rule of thumb is that clown maps are for clowns. They aren’t useful for making serious weather forecasts. They don’t account for a lot of things. The short term models like the HRRR are useful for picking up banding or mixing issues. You have in this case a raging jet stream slamming into a brick wall of dense, dry arctic air. It gonna snow, a lot. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted Wednesday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:46 PM From Ryan Maue on X: We can partition the model output by how much "snow" will fall -- and then apply a "snow to liquid" ratio (SLR) which is typically 10:1 at temperatures around freezing. But this snow will be falling in frigid air 8°F to 18°F so SLR > 15:1 or 18:1 Do the math: 1.4" QPF x 18:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted Wednesday at 03:46 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:46 PM 34 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: when this poster gets serious, i pay attention; i remember this quote from Jan 2016; "this is a storm for the ages.." 34 minutes ago, forkyfork said: also the dgz runs from the surface to near 500mb with a ton of moisture slamming into it forky, when serious, reminds me of the vintage E F Hutton commercials. As always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted Wednesday at 03:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:49 PM Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows .But that’s the part we don’t care about, right?. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted Wednesday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:52 PM 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it's been so long since we've had this Reminds me of a lighter version of Valentines 2007 setup. Models 4-5 days out had a MidAtlantic bullseye only to result in heaviest snows in NE and a ton of sleet in MidAtlantic up to NYC. When you see that heart shaped CAD signature often indicates a pretty strong warm push aloft. Just depends how far north it gets. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted Wednesday at 03:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:57 PM 20 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows . For Southern New Jersey that's a big snow. It's not like we're talking about southern New York. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM Gfs looks stellar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM GFS loading.... any PBP volunteers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM Modeling through 06Z and ICON at 12Z so far have been pretty steady with QPF of between .7" and 1.1". Be happy. Be ecstatic with that right now. Be happy. Be ecstatic with 10:1 - 12:1 ratios. Consider anything above 12:1 as gravy *IF* it happens. To assume at this point 15:1 or 20:1 is just foolish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: Gfs looks stellar Looks beautiful. Long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:02 PM Just now, Stormlover74 said: Gfs looks stellar that's a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Wednesday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:03 PM 6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: For Southern New Jersey that's a big snow. It's not like we're talking about southern New York. Damn, you just lil bro'd South Jersey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted Wednesday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:04 PM guys GFS just printed out a long duration overrunning snowstorm lasting 30+ hours literally a dream for all us 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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