Major snowstorm 1/15-16

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kidding aside…that ULL moves right overhead now Thu night. There will probably be some accumulating light snows up here. You still can’t rule out this thing blowing up for E ME if we start getting some pressure falls in the GOM.

But yeah, it’s only 1/12. The elephant in the room is that  continues up here.

It appears to be more than a NE region issue  interesting

[dendrite]

They stopped the chemtrails. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It appears to be more than a NE region issue  interesting

Who would have thought...cold and dry is this CC dominated era.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Fuck the summer

Worst season

Wish it could be 6 months of 80s  4 months of deep winter and 1 month fall and spring. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who would have thought...cold and dry is this CC dominated era.

I figure you're kidding around but ..still, it doesn't incite much mystery  ( it's useful to point this out to the pedestrian -) 

The flow is just biased in favor of some regions and not in others. That's typical 3 million years ago, today.. and tomorrow.  But, we are a whopper exception to the rule according to some sourcing.  Here's December according to the ERS tracking.  I'm curious about Novie but ... just arm chair recall, I suspect it'd be 75% likeness or more.  The early season blocking/front loading aspect serviced these cold regions and it really quite obviously got going two months ago.

Bringing that back to the dry continental aspect, one of other NW flow pattern results and consequence - below being the temperatures.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I figure you're kidding around but ..still, it doesn't incite much mystery  ( it's useful to point this out to the pedestrian -) 

The flow is just biased in favor of some regions and not in others. That's typical 3 million years ago, today.. and tomorrow.  But, we are a whopper exception to the rule according to some sourcing.  Here's December according to the ERS tracking.  I'm curious about Novie but ... just arm chair recall, I suspect it'd be 75% likeness or more.  The early season blocking/front loading aspect serviced these cold regions and it really quite obviously got going two months ago.

Bringing that back to the dry continental aspect, one of other NW flow pattern results - below being the temperatures.

Yes, I'm not disputing CC....believe me...just kind of ironic, in a sardonic kind of way (for us).

[weatherwiz]

I've always said and felt this...

Once we enter the -AMO phase (which I believe we're beginning to move into), if we're continuing to see shattering temperature records and continuing the theme of hurricanes taking off and undergoing RI...then we're in a real cause for concern. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, I'm not disputing CC....believe me...just kind of ironic in a sardonic kind of way (for us).

Yeah, I'm not even talking about CC...  Even in 1888 we would've been cold relative to all, given the circulation mode of this two-month journey.

I was just commenting that it isn't really a mystery why we are cold and dry in and of itself.  

The whole canvas of that?  yeah, it is interestingly contrasting.   Whether that is a part of GW/CC or not,  that product suggests we've had it really really good as winter enthusiasts.  Because it seems like nowhere else has had much of a chance at all HAHAHA.   how ironic. 

Obviously, snow is the primary voter issue around this public arena, notwithstanding so ... sure, boned just the same. 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...many people  here are fans of snow not winter...

This accurately describes me. Hand up. I admit it. The cold drives me nuts as I am getting older. Sun setting at 4p and the inability for the atmosphere to actually snow are driving me insane. Indoor golf just doesn’t really do it for me. Lol

[dryslot]

Changed the title to major shit storm?

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Kidding aside…that ULL moves right overhead now Thu night. There will probably be some accumulating light snows up here. You still can’t rule out this thing blowing up for E ME if we start getting some pressure falls in the GOM.

But yeah, it’s only 1/12. The elephant in the room is that  continues up here.

The NH Golf Mid-Am is at Mt. Washington first week of October. Should be like playing in Scotland. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Well.... I'm sure TT is laughing his butt off. He knew what he was doing when he made this post. He gets his rocks off by digging in and trying to set people off.. LOL.

[MJO812]

34 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Wish it could be 6 months of 80s  4 months of deep winter and 1 month fall and spring. 

I say 10 months of winter and 2 months of spring. 

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Changed the title to major shit storm?

That was the implication from the start from Dr. Dewsh. Glad i never got invested in this thing at all, never stood a chance imo. 

And it's going...going...gone! It's outta here! Way over the green monster into the parking lot behind the trees down the sewer and into the atlantic

The ens mean cut back from 1-2" to just a few tenths for this first system yet the total run mean has increased quite a bit, so thats good. GEFS/GEPS are similar

 

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I say 10 months of winter and 2 months of spring. 

Jesus, better move to Barrow. I think 5/5 would be nice.... 1/1 spring and fall, assuming its deep winter.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That was the implication from the start from Dr. Dewsh. Glad i never got invested in this thing at all, never stood a chance imo. 

And it's going...going...gone! It's outta here! Way over the green monster into the parking lot behind the trees down the sewer and into the atlantic

The ens mean cut back from 1-2" to just a few tenths for this first system yet the total run mean has increased quite a bit, so thats good. GEFS/GEPS are similar

 

300-400 mile move in 24 hours....though the possibility was always there due to the massive spread on ensembles. 

But there's a reason a few days ago I mentioned that 1/15-16 would be all gravy if we got it....it was a very thread-the-needle type look if there ever was one to use as an example. 

 

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Jesus, better move to Barrow. I think 5/5 would be nice.... 1/1 spring and fall, assuming its deep winter.

And he's the one telling people in SNE to move  

[vortex95]

On 1/11/2026 at 8:14 AM, CoastalWx said:

Vortex and I go way back. And don’t let him fool you, he gets pumped for a big one too. When I first started he was too cool to talk to me until one day I brought up the big December 94 subtropical storm and he was flabbergasted that I remembered that storm. That’s when he knew there was a new kid in town. 

Yes, IIRC, when you mentioned the Dec 1994 hybrid storm (really a 70 kt hurricane, and the it will likely get included as one officially once the Hurricane Reanalysis Project reaches the 90s - it is in the early 70s now), I went to CoastalWx, "how did you know about that?!"   Well, a valid question b/c there was no snow w/ it!

[vortex95]

On 1/11/2026 at 8:19 AM, CoastalWx said:

He is. Huge severe wx weenie too. 

I storm chased in the Plains most years 1992-2016.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

300-400 mile move in 24 hours....though the possibility was always there due to the massive spread on ensembles. 

But there's a reason a few days ago I mentioned that 1/15-16 would be all gravy if we got it....it was a very thread-the-needle type look if there ever was one to use as an example. 

 

 

I noticed this coincided with the relay off the Pacific into the more physically realized sounding domain out west, which began taking place over the last 30 hours ...

 

[Great Snow 1717]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I say 10 months of winter and 2 months of spring. 

Make it 12 months of winter!

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

That was the implication from the start from Dr. Dewsh. Glad i never got invested in this thing at all, never stood a chance imo. 

And it's going...going...gone! It's outta here! Way over the green monster into the parking lot behind the trees down the sewer and into the atlantic

The ens mean cut back from 1-2" to just a few tenths for this first system yet the total run mean has increased quite a bit, so thats good. GEFS/GEPS are similar

 

Should never start specific storm thread at this lead but we all knew the motive for it.

[vortex95]

So finished a stretch of overnights ydy morning, and slept in long, so just looked at everything in the last hr, including previous runs.

It's odd.  You look at the solid full latitude 500 trough and it axis, and you wonder why a weak wave scoots out quickly ahead of the upper support, taking the baroclinic zone w/ it!!!     Looking at 500 alone, it should much better at the sfc for a decent coastal.   Also, now the models don't develop any real strong sfc low?  Huh?  Again, the 500 alone does not suggest this should happen!

Big difference than 24 hr ago as well.  The 500 cuts off *well* W of  New England and is stronger than ydy, and moves over right over the region.  That should promote a sfc low *not* scooting out to sea.  However, it's not tilted below.  The 700 low is co-located and goes right over the region, so we get dry slotted!  But we never got any sig precip to begin w/!  CoastalWx's worst nightmare!  LOL.

Moisture is quite limited w/ the upper low, so that will just mean half-decent snows across the mtns of NNE probably.

Ydy was better actually, since the 500 low cut S of the region.

And the two decent troughs that occur down the road, can't do much either, at least on the 06z GFS!  The 06z ECMWF looks better for something this weekend.

It's been piecemeal in regards to snowfall across the region so far this winter, no one storm can deliver widespread mdt-hvy SN.  Just sub-regions, like LI to Cape Cod and NNE get localized decent snows.  Now, we get a fragmented storm coming that that can't consolidate right!?  I can see now why CoastalWx is really getting ticked!  
 

[weatherwiz]

I've been thinking...I actually don't think its a bad idea to start threads for specific storm threats, even if the probability is low. It would be great to start like building a library so to say for research purposes. We have so much research and data on storms which worked out but I don't feel like we have much of a database on storms which don't (outside of the section in the KU books which as some near misses). 

It would be cool if the board also had like an archived section where specific threads could end up there for historical and research purposes. 

[Damage In Tolland]

So much boredom . So much 

[Typhoon Tip]

Wild guess here but, I'm betting few or no one is going to be interested in this. 

I'm actually curious at this point if we can hop-scotch our way through this +d(PNA) without getting anything at all like these ICON's and GGEM ideas.  This thing has been plagued by this the whole way. 

As a snap observation, it seems even in +PNAs the fast nature of the circulation foot is crowding and not letting kinematics be conserved at small scales (cyclone) in lieu of the frenzy in the hemisphere... 

 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've been thinking...I actually don't think its a bad idea to start threads for specific storm threats, even if the probability is low. It would be great to start like building a library so to say for research purposes. We have so much research and data on storms which worked out but I don't feel like we have much of a database on storms which don't (outside of the section in the KU books which as some near misses). 

It would be cool if the board also had like an archived section where specific threads could end up there for historical and research purposes. 

Yeah, It would be cool if we knew how many hr 384 KU's that the GFS use to have that actually worked out.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've been thinking...I actually don't think its a bad idea to start threads for specific storm threats, even if the probability is low. It would be great to start like building a library so to say for research purposes. We have so much research and data on storms which worked out but I don't feel like we have much of a database on storms which don't (outside of the section in the KU books which as some near misses). 

It would be cool if the board also had like an archived section where specific threads could end up there for historical and research purposes. 

Of course not... but this isn't about the virtuous journey in pursuit of objective understanding in here.   You kidding?   You're dealing with weather drama -related dopa addicts  LOL    The dealer got arrested and didn't make the scene - so now your attempting to explain things to the open-mindedness of withdraw rage.    Hey, more power to ya -

[Typhoon Tip]

Here's the 132 hour cumulative total of ICON QPF ...    LOL       wow. this is awesome... 

[Damage In Tolland]

Stein ,, nothing like a Steiner pattern in the heart of winter