January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

Ya the euro is close. So close to something good. 

[eduggs]

I'd call that ECM run a step towards the ICON. Much needed for morale. It would be great to see more ensemble support as well.

[Weather Will]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats the part Weather Will dosent tell you about

Ok, WB 12Z Fantasy Snow Map at Day 12 to brighten the mood.  Best EURO run in awhile....edit....not from one storm, bunch of slide swipes.

[Pityflakes]

I know the models aren't showing much verbatim at the moment, but we must score at some point in this upcoming pattern right?  Nearly all the pieces are there, PNA, vortex placement, some moderate blocking (maybe), southern stream energy/moisture?  Not saying the "big one" is a lock, but chances seem more than decent for a coastal that gives us the goods.  

[NorthArlington101]

It's light, but the 12z EURO snows in the area on the:

• 15th
• 16th
• 18th
• 19th
• 20th

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's light, but the 12z EURO snows in the area on the:

• 15th
• 16th
• 18th
• 19th
• 20th

So pretty much between the 15th and 20th haha 

[Ji]

Euro ensembles increased snow through the 17th

[high risk]

35 minutes ago, stormy said:

I appreciate your suggestion, but No, I won't ignore them.

I fully understand that they are supposed to be more accurate than the deterministic models because of more data input across various parameters.  A higher skill score should be achieved, especially for complex systems or longer term considerations.

I will develop a comparison chart for ECM/EPS and GFS and GFS ens.

Saturdays rain will be a good first comparison.

           

           In the interest of "the more you know", I think you need to better understand what ensembles really are.     You are correct that the ensemble mean should outperform the deterministic run, but they don't benefit from any extra input data.    The premise of the ensembles is that the evolution of a single forecast could be extremely sensitive to initial condition errors (either due to simply not having enough observation data or even directly due to errors in the measurements) and general uncertainly of the atmosphere.  By tweaking the initial states across a larger number of run of the same system, we should in theory better sample the amount of uncertainty with the forecast.    You get a range of possible outcomes, some sense of whether the deterministic run is on the right track, and a feel for the degree of uncertainty.   If the deterministic run is way different than most of the ensemble, it isn't likely to verify.    But if a large part of the ensemble agrees with the deterministic run, the evolution of the deterministic run may have some significant merit.  (And if the deterministic run is way different than the ensembles, but many ensemble members agree on some very different scenario, that scenario is very much on the table.)    Ensemble construction has now gotten more sophisticated with things like accounting for model physics uncertainty.  

             Ensembles can still be very wrong, as the underlying model will have limitations, and we don't always properly sample the uncertainty in the initial state.    And it doesn't help that the version of the GFS used by the GEFS is not the one used by the operational GFS.   And an ensemble system shouldn't bounce around cycle-to-cycle as some of them do sometimes.    Ultimately, we need larger ensemble systems to fully cover the range of possible outcomes, and AI methods may really help in that area.    One final comment:  be careful looking at low-res, global ensembles at short timescales, as the differences in the initial states for the members need some time to grow.   So they have limited utility in the short range.

 

            

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro ensembles increased snow through the 17th

Slow and steady increase over the next 6 days and we will be up over 6” on the mean and no time haha 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro ensembles increased snow through the 17th

And presumably that’s all basically from the 15-17th?

[ravensrule]

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Which one is Tyler Loop?. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Man, that was a few ticks away from being a monster


.

Same.with ggem

[aldie 22]

The snow is great but more importantly how warm is February looking?

[stormy]

8 minutes ago, high risk said:

           

           In the interest of "the more you know", I think you need to better understand what ensembles really are.     You are correct that the ensemble mean should outperform the deterministic run, but they don't benefit from any extra input data.    The premise of the ensembles is that the evolution of a single forecast could be extremely sensitive to initial condition errors (either due to simply not having enough observation data or even directly due to errors in the measurements) and general uncertainly of the atmosphere.  By tweaking the initial states across a larger number of run of the same system, we should in theory better sample the amount of uncertainty with the forecast.    You get a range of possible outcomes, some sense of whether the deterministic run is on the right track, and a feel for the degree of uncertainty.   If the deterministic run is way different than most of the ensemble, it isn't likely to verify.    But if a large part of the ensemble agrees with the deterministic run, the evolution of the deterministic run may have some significant merit.  (And if the deterministic run is way different than the ensembles, but many ensemble members agree on some very different scenario, that scenario is very much on the table.)    Ensemble construction has now gotten more sophisticated with things like accounting for model physics uncertainty.  

             Ensembles can still be very wrong, as the underlying model will have limitations, and we don't always properly sample the uncertainty in the initial state.    And it doesn't help that the version of the GFS used by the GEFS is not the one used by the operational GFS.   And an ensemble system shouldn't bounce around cycle-to-cycle as some of them do sometimes.    Ultimately, we need larger ensemble systems to fully cover the range of possible outcomes, and AI methods may really help in that area.    One final comment:  be careful looking at low-res, global ensembles at short timescales, as the differences in the initial states for the members need some time to grow.   So they have limited utility in the short range.

 

            

Thanks for your expert analysis. It is greatly appreciated .

[mitchnick]

With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.

[winter_warlock]

38 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It’s a bit south of the classic passage point over Atlanta but at least it’s from the south

Amen brother!!!

[AdamHLG]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Like you said previously, way too many things need to go right to get significant snow here. Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs.  

 

"Winter Nor'Easters and benchmark storms have gone the way of the dinosaurs."        I have to admit.... I agree.  Call it what you will - global warming, climate change, etc.  However, here in northern Baltimore County, 2016 was the last BECS - let alone MECS.  It has been 10 years with no end in sight.  We used to get hit every 3 years.  I am starting to think the dream is over and we may not get hit again outside of a fluke chance storm every 10-15 years - - if that.        

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.

Yeah it wasn’t looking that good yesterday and the day before, but good trends today. 

[Scraff]

I have a “work” beer tasting in 6 minutes. Probably 18 beers plus. So when I get back in here, please forgive me now, but let’s get that winter white gold while we can! 

[ravensrule]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.

Welcome back Mitch, i have been waiting for you. 

[Eskimo Joe]

22 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

With the model runs today taken as a whole, it feels/seems like the way things look a week before a typical decent event...some hits and misses. Definitely a different vibe from the last week or more. As much as some may think I am dying to pi$$ on the parade, I'm actually pretty enthusiastic with what I'm seeing. A few more tweaks and we're there.

100% probably one of the better model suites of the winter thus far. Bottom line: there's potential next week, but no one should be spiking the ball. I fully expect swings with each run, hoping to at least see a trend at 18z where things are still there.

[bncho]

Now that was a cool 12z suite.

[soadforecasterx]

Not a bad mean if you ask me 

[WxUSAF]

41 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Which one is Tyler Loop?. 

Poor ball spacing

[GreyHat]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Ok, WB 12Z Fantasy Snow Map at Day 12 to brighten the mood.  Best EURO run in awhile....edit....not from one storm, bunch of slide swipes.

Not good for Baltimore to Dover Delaware 

[GreyHat]

18z GFS show 990L for 16th Jan going off the NC coast with some snow. The storm is shown being pushed out to sea.

[Kmlwx]

Just now, GreyHat said:

18z GFS show 990L for 16th Jan going off the NC coast with some snow. The storm is shown being pushed out to sea.

The 18z GFS hasn't run yet...

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The 18z GFS hasn't run yet...

Bncho made another account apparently 

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Bncho made another account apparently 

did he get banned?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

did he get banned?

lol not that I know of.