RodneyS Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 It's time for the 9th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Those who participated last year will doubtless recall the excitement of that contest in which measurable snow managed to fall at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), and Dulles International (IAD) on exactly one day -- February 1st. And even that did not happen at Richmond International Airport (RIC), where the snow gods pitched a shutout. However, we all know things will be different this time around because it is not a La Nina, but rather an El Nino, snow season. And an El Nino has never produced at DCA less snow than . . . one-tenth of an inch. (1972-73 and 1997-98). Then again, the El Nino winter of 2009-10 set the all-time DC snow record of 56.1 inches. So, that narrow range should assist with your pick. Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region. Please note that you are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch for the four major Mid-Atlantic airports: BWI, DCA, IAD, and RIC. Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April. For the tiebreaker, please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one -- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. For example, if you forecast: BWI: 0.0" DCA: 0.0" IAD: 0.0" RIC: 10.0" And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be: BWI: 2.5" DCA: 2.5" IAD: 2.5" RIC: 2.5" Your absolute value departures would be: BWI: 2.5 DCA: 2.5 IAD: 2.5 RIC: 7.5 Thus, your total departure would be 15.0. Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Friday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline. However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. I think the best approach is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2015-16: @Shadowzone 2016-17: @Stormpc 2017-18: @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc 2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide 2020-21: @NorthArlington101 2021-22: @IUsedToHateCold 2022-23: @LittleVillageWx Good luck everyone! 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 BWI: 2.3" DCA: 1.1" IAD: 3.7" RIC: 0.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 0.2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 BWI: 8.2" DCA: 5.5" IAD: 12.2" RIC: 1.5" Tiebreaker SBY: 1.0" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 BWI: 22.5" DCA: 13" IAD: 23.4" RIC: 12" Tiebreaker SBY: 9" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 BWI: 13.5” DCA: 7.1” IAD: 10.8” RIC: 6.0” Tiebreaker SBY: 4.2” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted November 1, 2023 Share Posted November 1, 2023 BWI: 4.3 DCA: 0.6 IAD: 3.9 RIC: 0.9 tiebreaker LYH: 2.3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 BWI: 26.0 DCA: 17.0 IAD: 28.0 RIC: 11.0 Tiebreaker SBY: 30.0 (because I want @Lowershoresadness to post all winter) edit: I also want it known that I made my picks before seeing @Terpeast’s winter forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 BWI: 17.1”DCA: 12.1”IAD: 24.2”RIC: 12”SBY tiebreaker: 6.5”very much subject to change til the last minute! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 DCA: 15.2 IAD: 29.3 BWI: 25.4 RIC: 16.8 SBY: 16.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 BWI: 23.7" DCA: 19.2" IAD: 29.1" RIC: 15.6" SBY: 14.9" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: BWI: 23.7" DCA: 19.2" IAD: 29.1" RIC: 15.6" SBY: 14.9" This is the kinda ballpark I’m leaning toward 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is the kinda ballpark I’m leaning toward I'm thinking a little higher than normal, if only because of the greater chance of a nice event or two given all the factors at play. I'd love to be wrong and have multiple shots during a pretty cold Nino winter, but I can't let myself go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 BWI: 29.5 DCA: 21.5 IAD:34.5 RIC:15.5 Tiebreaker SBY: 11.5 MBY KOKV: 44.5 I am really feeling good about this winter. Storms have been wanting to ride the coast all fall. We are gonna have our chances. And if we are gonna get a big storm this is the year IMO. Clearly the background state Below 40n has changed a lot the past decade. And it may be we need bombs to get snowstorms in the future. This year mother nature is going to be dropping bombs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 2, 2023 Share Posted November 2, 2023 The dry is worrisome and I do think temps will be an issue BWI: 13.7" DCA: 9.2" IAD: 16.1" RIC: 9.6" SBY: 8.9" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 BWI: 32.6. DCA: 20.7 IAD: 34.2 RIC: 14.7 Tiebreaker SBY: 12.7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 BWI: 42.1” DCA: 36.5” IAD: 47.3” RIC: 24.7” Tiebreaker SBY: 28.4” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 BWI: 36.9” DCA: 23.8” IAD: 41.9” RIC: 12.4” Tiebreaker SBY: 7.5” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 BWI: 24.6” DCA: 18.7” IAD: 27.3” RIC: 15.2” Tiebreaker SBY: 15” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 As a warminista, I loved last winter. But I suspect payback. SO: BWI: 17 DCA: 14 IAD: 20 RIC: 10 SBY: 10 (may it be much less again) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleVillageWx Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 BWI: 32.5 DCA: 26.6 IAD: 40.7 RIC: 15.8 Tiebreaker SBY: 12.9 The -PDO had me looking hard at a '72-'73 analog but this Nino doesn't look to be as strong as that one and I really like where things are headed otherwise. We'll get our chances--may as well aim high! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 On 11/1/2023 at 10:00 PM, nw baltimore wx said: BWI: 26.0 DCA: 17.0 IAD: 28.0 RIC: 11.0 Tiebreaker SBY: 30.0 (because I want @Lowershoresadness to post all winter) edit: I also want it known that I made my picks before seeing @Terpeast’s winter forecast. the Wizards will win an NBA ring before I ever hit 30 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: the Wizards will win an NBA ring before I ever hit 30 inches Maybe in 60 years as the Texas Warlocks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 BWI: 22.5" DCA: 19.5" IAD: 25.2" RIC: 15" Tiebreaker SBY: 15" Bonus: DE beaches- 33.3" 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 BWI : 16.7" DCA : 12.7" IAD : 19.7" RIC: 9.7" Tie Breaker SBY : 8.7" MBY : 24.7" MT PSU : 47.7" I think we get 1 region wide warning level event. The rest comes from a few 1 to 2 inch events and a couple snow to slop events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 BWI 21” DCA 15” IAD 22.5” RIC 14.5” My home town SBY: 13” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 BWI 32.3” DCA 23.7” IAD 37.1” RIC 14.7” SBY: 22.5” get ready for Feb 5-6 to rock your world 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 4, 2023 Author Share Posted November 4, 2023 10 hours ago, Roger Smith said: BWI 32.3” DCA 23.7” IAD 37.1” RIC 14.7” SBY: 22.5” get ready for Feb 5-6 to rock your world A repeat of Feb 5-6, 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 BWI 2.7” DCA 2.2” IAD 3.1” RIC .7” SBY: trace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 16 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: BWI 2.7” DCA 2.2” IAD 3.1” RIC .7” SBY: trace Ouch. Would be alot of cliff jumpers this year if you win. Reaper would need to come out of retirement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 5, 2023 Share Posted November 5, 2023 BWI: 24.5" DCA: 15.24" IAD: 24.7" RIC: 15.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 6.6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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