September 2023

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (2005)
NYC: 94 (1952)
LGA: 93 (1952)


Lows:

 

EWR: 49 (1985)
NYC: 46 (1963)
LGA: 50 (1985)

Historical:

 

1823: A strong category 1 or low category 2 hurricane struck near New Orleans, Louisiana and went toward Baton Rouge. Its strongest impacts occurred west of New Orleans.

1922 - The temperature at El Azizia in Libyia soared to 136 degrees to estbalish a world record. To make matters worse, a severe ghibi (dust storm) was in progress. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - Hurricane San Felipe crossed Puerto Rico resulting in the highest winds, the heaviest rains, and the greatest destruction in years. The hurricane produced much damage in the Virgin Islands, and later hit the Bahamas and Florida. (David Ludlum)

1984 - Hurricane Diana, after making a complete loop off the Carolina coast, made landfall and moved across eastern North Carolina. Diana deluged Cape Fear with more than eighteen inches of rain, and caused 78 million dollars damage in North Carolina. (Storm Data)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the northeastern U.S. Flooding was reported in Vermont, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Greenwood NY received 6.37 inches of rain. A dike along a creek at Prattsburg NY gave way and a two million dollar onion crop left on the ground to dry was washed away. The prolonged rains in the eastern U.S. finally came to an end late in the day as a cold front began to push the warm and humid airmass out to sea. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Hurricane Gilbert smashed into the Cayman Islands, and as it headed for the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico strenghtened into a monster hurricane, packing winds of 175 mph. The barometric pressure at the center of Gilbert reached 26.13 inches (888 mb), an all-time record for any hurricane in the Carribean, Gulf of Mexico, or the Atlantic Ocean. Gilbert covered much of the Gulf of Mexico, producing rain as far away as the Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed over the Central Plains Region, with a record low of 29 degrees at North Platte NE. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the Pacific Northwest, with a record high of 96 degrees at Eugene OR. Thunderstorms over south Texas produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Del Rio, and two inches of rain in two hours. (National Weather Summary)

 

2008: Hurricane Ike made landfall as a Category 2 storm near Galveston, Texas.

 

2017: The NWS Office in Reno, Nevada, issued their first tornado warning since July 21st, 2014.

[gravitylover]

The thing is it wasn't a bust. I've always felt that forecasts are for potential over an area not for specific spots. I got skunked a bunch of times recently with a few tenths while others just a few miles away on either side got drenched and I didn't call "bust!" I mean, you're talking about distances of 50 miles or less, sometimes 5 miles will do it, it just depends on where the train sets up and how wide it is. 

Ehh, whatever. Let's see some dryness for a few days and we'll all be happy (except for Forky who'll be bummed because it's only gonna be 75°).

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Rmine1 said:

May as join the bust parade.

BUST

another hot and humid day afoot. Yay

At least the front should cool things down and end the ridiculous humidity. 

[bluewave]

New England has been getting some of the most extreme rainfall recently.

 

[WestBabylonWeather]

NWS discussion did have the potential for development later. So we will see but probably not

As much as I don’t want summer to end I can’t wait for this humidity to go.


.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

If you look at it from a geographic view it was a bust.   A couple areas got big rains, but 90-95% of the subforum saw close to nothing.   

welcome to the joys of mesoscale forecasting

[SACRUS]

Lee track means a cloudy Saturday with only real rain chances into LI/CT.

 

 

[Dark Star]

Pouring rain in Garwood right now!

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.35" of rain so far today.

[gravitylover]

Just had another heavy shower drop a quick .2

[MJO812]

Showers here in Brooklyn 

[Stormlover74]

6 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep it was a bust but I'm ok with that. Obviously we didn't need anymore rain. It has been an extremely wet pattern ever since the end of June. I enjoyed all the storms this summer, but I think I'm finally burned out on it. I'm ready for some nice dry fall weather.

Looking forward to dewpoints in the 40s the next few days, and even beyond then it looks nice. Even though the longer range looks a little warmer than normal, it's still going to be very comfortable. Next week looks like highs of 75 to 80 with dewpoints in the 50s. Beautiful fall weather settling in. 

Looks like another 8 to 10 day stretch with little or no rain

[Dan76]

26 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Upton not letting go, despite the obvious. Biggest bust(that’s what she said) of the summer?

Dropped flood watch here.

[Brian5671]

another downpour here but that's it now as the sun comes back out

[Intensewind002]

Picked up only 0.07” of rain today. On a side note OKX is calling for waves as high as 15 ft on the south shore beaches now by Friday, which will be pretty epic to watch

[lee59]

.02 of an inch of rain today, far less than what I expected.

[Rjay]

Trace.  About what I expected here. 

[jm1220]

A few drops. 

On a better note winds are now NW which means this disgusting humidity is on its way out.

[gravitylover]

Last of the clouds have moved east, now it's time to dry out. It can't happen quickly enough... 

[CIK62]

NOTHING BURGER COMING:

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, some of the coolest temperatures so far this fall are likely. Most areas outside of New York City and Philadelphia will see lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s through Friday. New York City could even experience its first sub-60° low temperature of this fall.

Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm over the next several days. The guidance favors landfall in New Brunswick, but landfall along the Maine or Nova Scotia coast cannot be ruled out. Eastern Long Island and eastern New England could some periods of heavy rain and gusty winds as Lee passes offshore.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -15.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.502 today.

On September 11 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.188 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.213 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal).

 

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

it’s nice out again

absolutely beautiful forecast in front of us if it verifies, indian summer conditions

Yeah looks like a pretty great stretch.  My forecast is calling for a string of mid-70's by day, and mid-50's at night starting on Sunday.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.35" of rain of the day yesterday. 

6 day rainfall total ending yesterday 4.38"

[LoboLeader1]

A comfortable 60F as of six this morning, very little rain here from yesterday's FROPA.

[bluewave]

Right back to the endless summer pattern after several days closer to average. Big -PNA trough will pump the SE Ridge later in the month. September since 2010 has been more a more like a summer month rather than a fall month. 
 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   70degs.(62/78) or +1.

GFS is just a Trace in the next 15 days and at least 80 everyday starting Sunday.

Reached 86 here yesterday at 5:30pm. with H.I. of 95.

Today:  74-78, wind n.-breezy, few clouds,  60 by tomorrow AM.

68*(75%RH) here at 7am.     67* at 9am.       71* at Noon.       78* at 4pm.      Reached 79* at 5pm.      75* at 7pm.     68* at 10pm.

 

[Allsnow]

Looks like 40’s tonight and tomorrow night in the suburbs 

[SnoSki14]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Right back to the endless summer pattern after several days closer to average. Big -PNA trough will pump the SE Ridge later in the month. So numerous days in the 80s should return with the chance of the warm spots in NJ registering a few 85-90° days. September since 2010 has been more a more like a summer month rather than a fall month. 
 

 

Of course this happens when the cooler season arrives. 

Oh well I guess I'll be wearing shorts til Thanksgiving 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Of course this happens when the cooler season arrives. 

Oh well I guess I'll be wearing shorts til Thanksgiving 

Septembers have been getting steadily warmer since the 80s and 90s. Most of the Septembers in recent years have averaged over 70° around NYC. So plenty of top 10 warmest Septembers.

 

[psv88]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like 40’s tonight and tomorrow night in the suburbs 

Most suburbs will be in the 50s, low 60s in the metro. 40s confined to well inland. 
 

winds stay up the next few days so there will not be great radiational cooling. 
 

40s will wait until October