September 2023

[steve392]

Received 1 inch of rain yesterday alone bringing it up to 3 inches since Friday.

[SACRUS]

 

72 / 67, partly sunny and should remain mostly rain free outside some isolated showers this pm. Low / mid 80s in the warm spot.  Trough pushes front through Wed (9/13) with a round of storms in the PM.  Beyond there Thu (9/14) and through the weekend looking very nice, near normal and drying out.  Lee stays east and NNW flow keeps it dry and near normal the weekend.  Beyond there after mid month warmer as ridge develops east.  Overall warmer close of the month.  Could become mre humid with southerly flow and any tropical or stalled fronts could keep it wet and warm. 

 

Lee on the visible

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

 

 

[rclab]

Good morning everyone. As per NWS NOAA, 3 day (9th-12th) CPK total, 3.46”. Stay well, as always ….

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1961)
NYC: 94 (1961)
LGA: 94 (1961)

Lows:

EWR: 47 (1958)
NYC: 46 (1917)
LGA: 52 (1967)

Historical:

1857: The SS Central America sinks during a hurricane, killing 425 lives. Fourteen tons of gold was aboard the ship as well.

1977 - Thunderstorms deluged the Kansas City area with torrential rains in the early morning hours, and then again that evening. Some places were deluged with more than six inches of rain twice that day, with up to 18 inches of rain reported at Independence MO. Flooding claimed the lives of 25 persons. The Country Club Plaza area was hardest hit. 2000 vehicles had to be towed following the storm, 150 of which had to be pulled out of Brush Creek, which runs through the Plaza area. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)

1979 - Hurricane Frederick smashed into the Mobile Bay area of Alabama packing 132 mph winds. Winds gusts to 145 mph were reported as the eye of the hurricane moved over Dauphin Island AL, just west of Mobile. Frederick produced a fifteen foot storm surge near the mouth of Mobile Bay. The hurricane was the costliest in U.S. history causing 2.3 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain which caused flooding in North Carolina, West Virginia, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Parts of Virginia received 3 to 4 inches of rain in just two hours early in the day. Later in the day, three to five inch rains deluged Cumberland County of south central Pennsylvania. Evening thunderstorms produced seven inches of rain at Marysville PA, most of which fell in three hours time. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - An afternoon tornado spawned a tornado which skipped across northern sections of Indianapolis IN damaging roofs and automobiles. It was the first tornado in central Indiana in September in nearly forty years of records. Hurricane Gilbert plowed across the island of Jamaica, and by the end of the day was headed for the Cayman Islands, packing winds of 125 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow whitened the mountains and foothills of northeastern Colorado, with eight inches reported at Buckhorn Mountain, west of Fort Collins. Two to three inches fell around Denver, causing great havoc during the evening rush hour. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern Plains Region between mid afternoon and early the next morning. Thunderstorms produced hail three inches in diameter at Roswell NM, and wind gusts greater than 98 mph at Henryetta OK. Thunderstorms also produced torrential rains, with more than seven inches at Scotland TX, and more than six inches at Yukon OK. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1999: Hurricane Floyd, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 145 mph, was making residents along the U.S. East Coast very nervous as it steamed steadily westward. Floyd was once forecast to strike Florida but turned away. Instead, Floyd hit the Bahamas at peak strength, causing substantial damage. It then paralleled the East Coast of the United States, causing massive evacuations and costly preparations from Florida through the Mid-Atlantic States.

[MJO812]

[Allsnow]

Beautiful day! One more day of humidity tomorrow than September weather sets in for good. Goodbye summer 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Beautiful day! One more day of humidity tomorrow than September weather sets in for good. Goodbye summer 

Agreed...might see a warmup after this but 90+ becomes rare as we head towards the 2nd half of the month

hottest weeks here were mid April and the First week of Sept...

[Stormlover74]

When should we expect the best waves from Lee? I'm thinking of heading down Friday afternoon but might wait til saturday

[WX-PA]

8 degrees above normal in late September is near 80 if that's correct. Very hard to get to 90 past the 15th of September.

[Rtd208]

Flood Watch issued here from late tonight thru tomorrow afternoon.

[SACRUS]

 

86 / 62 here - gorgeous day.

[uofmiami]

35 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Flood Watch issued here from late tonight thru tomorrow afternoon.

OKX area as well now.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

8 degrees above normal in late September is near 80 if that's correct. Very hard to get to 90 past the 15th of September.

Upper 80s to some 90s has been the post 9-16 norm since 2010. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Sep 16 to Oct 10	Missing Count
2022-10-10	88	0
2021-10-10	88	0
2020-10-10	83	0
2019-10-10	96	0
2018-10-10	84	0
2017-10-10	92	0
2016-10-10	90	0
2015-10-10	89	0
2014-10-10	87	0
2013-10-10	89	0
2012-10-10	81	0
2011-10-10	88	0
2010-10-10	90	0

[Rtd208]

Just now, uofmiami said:

OKX area as well now.

Makes sense given how much rain has fallen in some areas over the last 4-5 days. I have had over 4" since Friday.

[Rtd208]

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

Flood Watch issued here from late tonight thru tomorrow afternoon.

3K nam unloads on E LI with 9 inches of rain....shows the potential for some areas tomorrow

 

 

[Big Jims Videos]

There should be some great surf this weekend for the Asbury Park Sea Hear Now music and surfing festival.  Probably the largest surf in years with a west component in the winds over the weekend as waves come down from close to 10 feet Friday to a 4-7 weekend swell at least.  

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We may still find a way to sneak in another 90° or two if that big -PNA +EPO pattern verifies later in the month. Also could see our first tropical system if the Gulf or Western Caribbean becomes more active. Much easier for CV systems to recurve.
 

 

It wouldn't surprise me if we went from summer to winter with barely any fall

[SI Mailman]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Upper 80s to some 90s has been the post 9-16 norm since 2010. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Sep 16 to Oct 10	Missing Count
2022-10-10	88	0
2021-10-10	88	0
2020-10-10	83	0
2019-10-10	96	0
2018-10-10	84	0
2017-10-10	92	0
2016-10-10	90	0
2015-10-10	89	0
2014-10-10	87	0
2013-10-10	89	0
2012-10-10	81	0
2011-10-10	88	0
2010-10-10	90	0

That 96 we had 4 years ago was in October IIRC.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

That 96 we had 4 years ago was in October IIRC.

I remember very well. New all-time October highs at several stations. 

[JerseyWx]

23 hours ago, psv88 said:

What you smell is New Jersey stanky air. Ain’t going anywhere…

Lol, nah I lived in NJ all my life.  Dealt with the Meadowlands and garbage smells before.  But up here we generally have pretty good air quality.  This is something different.

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[MJO812]

[donsutherland1]

A strong cold front will cross the region tomorrow with some heavy thunderstorms. Parts of the region could experience street and highway flooding as excessive rainfall amounts are possible. Behind the front, some of the coolest temperatures so far this fall are likely.

Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm over the next several days. Atlantic Canada faces the highest risk of landfall, but New England landfall still cannot completely be ruled out. The ECMWF offers the farthest west track on the operational guidance. Eastern Long Island and eastern New England could experience heavy rains and high winds as Lee passes offshore.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -24.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.438 today.

On September 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.211 (RMM). The September 9-adjusted amplitude was 2.506 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal).

 

[Rtd208]

Tornado warning just NW of Baltimore.

[David-LI]

Is this rain?

 

[SACRUS]

9/13

 

EWR: 87
TEB: 87
ACY: 86
New Bnswck: 85
BLM: 85
PHL: 85
TTN: 84
LGA: 83
ISP: 83
NYC: 82
JFK: 81

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Is this rain?

 

No

[SACRUS]

6 hours ago, SI Mailman said:

That 96 we had 4 years ago was in October IIRC.

 

EWR:

10/2/19 : 96

latest 90 is Oct 17, 1938
latest 80 is  Nov 15, 1993

[Rtd208]

Apparently Baltimore County MD is under a Flash Flood Emergency