WX-PA

There was no favorable mjo phase last year in was 4-6 with an insane -PNA..Not the case this year.

Actually if you remember it did snow a few days after Christmas in 97..it was a dusting, I dont know if that counts..The rest of the winter was a disaster until March when got our first and only snowfall.

We ALL need mental help on these boards.

Big drop in Enso 1 and 2..By March we will be negative..setting up for a La Nina next summer and fall

Yea for the next week or so sure. I think the second half of the month will produce snow here as the Pacific improves with cold MJO phases. Listen you may be right, strong Nino in December usually means warm and snowless..However very rare to have a negative NAO with enso +2 in December.

For a day or so..not for a week..And what December doesn't have temps in the 50's for a few days?

Again if it was a postitive NAO with this strong el nino in December of course I would punt..And if the second half of the month showed MJO in phase 3-6..sure that's warm stuff....Euro weeklies look great for the last week or so of December into January..Again they could reverse tomorrow.nobody knows but to call December a warm month with no snow at this point is foolish like you are seeing on the NYC forum.

MJO half of the month we are in the warm phases which you see phase 3-6..the second half of the month MJO is going into cold phases 7-8, Showing there is some hope for around the holidays. Plus NAO is negative even in the warm phases so it wont be a blowtorch

The reason you don't punt December like most of the board is doing.

That's a normal December here unless I'm color blind.

Looking at the next few weeks it looks basically normal through mid month. I don't see this blowtorch that some are posting about. And this is no 2015 or 1997

It doesn't have to be bitterly cold to get snow in December.

A strong nino in December..Not a shock that December will be above normal temp wise. Hopefully we can squeeze some snow in before the end of the month.

Nothing like being optimistic especially on this board.

By the 20th we'll be in phase 8..I know phase 8 is cold..so that sets up some wintry weather the week of Christmas..extending into January with 1 or 2, if MJO is the only indicator.. Of course their other factors.