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September 2023


Stormlover74
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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@winterwarlock the rain is back 

we shall see...my area only picked up about an inch in our 3 days of rain..rather meh...considering we had basically nothing in 10 days before that

 

luckily timing was great for the game yesterday with the storms rolling through before we started tailgaiting for the ru game but not during or during the game

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

At this point I'll take a front that will at least clear out the humidity!  Getting a little tired of the warmth + humidity.

Yep and that's coming for later in the week. Looks like a nice stretch of low humidity weather starting on thursday. Dewpoints could get down to the high 40s late week. 

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Active tropics 

If one of these random runs west of the ensemble means near Cape Cod actually happen, then it will be a big win for the newer AI models. This will be the big test case coming up. Imagine if they end up being right. Maybe we could actually nail a day 7-10 snowstorm forecast for once.

 

A0B4D078-8F70-43DC-A04F-55692C74447C.thumb.png.1e625b5b6729ba8e4574c9c7da1e9d26.png

 

 

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27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If one of these random runs west of the ensemble means near Cape Cod actually happen, then it will be a big win for the newer AI models. This will be the big test case coming up. Imagine if they end up being right. Maybe we could actually nail a day 7-10 snowstorm forecast for once.

 

A0B4D078-8F70-43DC-A04F-55692C74447C.thumb.png.1e625b5b6729ba8e4574c9c7da1e9d26.png

 

 

We can only hope.

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6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

We can only hope.

The funny thing about the modeling with Lee is that all the models have been taking turns having these west of ensemble mean tracks from run to run. So there is still some question on how fast the trough lifts out of the NE later in the week and ridging builds in behind it. If that trough can’t dig enough, then we won’t have it to safely boot LEE OTS for interests near the Cape. So there is a lot riding on the track in terms of storm impacts and the future of AI in weather forecasting. We could only imagine how AI might impact winter storm forecasting if they show more skill than the regular models with Lee and other test cases going forward. 

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Some showers and thundershowers will be possible tomorrow. Readings will top out in the upper 70s to perhaps low 80s.

A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday with some thunderstorms. Behind it, parts of the region could see their coolest temperatures so far this fall.

Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm over the next several days. Atlantic Canada faces the highest risk of landfall, but New England landfall still cannot completely be ruled out. The picture will clear in coming days.

The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. That forecast is verifying with the ongoing heatwave. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -21.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.283 today.

On September 8 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.509 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.666 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal).

 

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