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September 2023


Stormlover74
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35 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

I believe the PHL SEPT record for 90 degree days is 8, very good chance we're halfway there by next Thursday. Even the GEM is toasty next week so looks like there's no ducking this shot. At least this is Sept & not the middle of July.

Very true, this setup in July would have meant a long lasting heat wave with shots at 100.

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Fri (9/1) opens dry and very pleasant upper 70s.  Ridge begins to build by Sat (9/2) warming into the 80s - likely an overperformer day.  Sun (9/3) into the following week ridge balloons into the OV and NE - NW-N-NNE flow but very warm to hot.  When flow comes around to the NW/W will see stronger heat towards the end of next week.  Any onshore component will keep shore cooler and cap stronger heat inland/west.  Overall warm into the beyond, unless  a ULL cutoff or Tropical system influences the area- looking dry as ridge and heights remain elevated into the east , perhaps that Rockies - TX - Plains ridge is shoved east for an Indian Summer.

 

90s in Sep to see how this hot forecast lines up with last decade +

EWR:

2022: 1
2021: 1
2020: 
2019: 3
2018: 4
2017: 3
2016: 5
2015: 5
2014: 3
2013: 1
2012: 2
2011: 0
2010: 6

 

 

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8 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you have  a better chance of winning the lottery then euro temps verifying..

Yeah I'd be surprised if we saw upper 90s. To me it looks more like low to mid 90s. Wouldn't be surprised to see warm spots like Newark hit 94-95. And as SnoSki said, dewpoints will be in the 60s instead of the 70s during the heat so it won't feel oppressive.

This is happening too late in the season to be an extreme event, but obviously it's going to be way above normal temps for early September. We're due for it after not having any real heat all of August.

I enjoyed the lack of major heat and all the rain/storms this summer, but I could go for a much warmer than normal and dry first half of September. Bring on extended summer. 

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3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

what happened to one day of 90?

yes one day around 90 & 4 days in the mid 90's 

Canadian has long duration heat wave for SEPT now approaching triple digits around PHL, GFS would temper things later next week with an onshore flow from what's left of Idalia.

torch SEPT followed by a cooler than average OCT

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1 hour ago, BucksCO_PA said:

yes one day around 90 & 4 days in the mid 90's 

Canadian has long duration heat wave for SEPT now approaching triple digits around PHL, GFS would temper things later next week with an onshore flow from what's left of Idalia.

torch SEPT followed by a cooler than average OCT

How many times has it reached 100 in NYC in September?..Has there ever been a heat wavein September with 7 days in a row with temps above 90?...I doubt that has ever happened

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3 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

How many times has it reached 100 in NYC in September?..Has there ever been a heat wavein September with 7 days in a row with temps above 90?...I doubt that has ever happened

I don’t think 100, but there was an extended heat wave in the late 1800s that killed lots of people. I’m sure someone could add the specifics 

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I don’t think 100, but there was an extended heat wave in the late 1800s that killed lots of people. I’m sure someone could add the specifics 

Climo is a big factor here..Sun isn't as strong, pretty amazing whet GFS and Euro are showing. 3 days in a row of 90 plus in September seems normal but most of the first 15 days is mind blowing. We'll see.

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3 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Climo is a big factor here..Sun isn't as strong, pretty amazing whet GFS and Euro are showing. 3 days in a row of 90 plus in September seems normal but most of the first 15 days is mind blowing. We'll see.

Let's see what actually happens...future runs could temper the heat or show more of an onshore flow-plus the remnants of Idalia are out there...summer trend has been for any heat on models to end up less than expected

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Let's see what actually happens...future runs could temper the heat or show more of an onshore flow-plus the remnants of Idalia are out there...summer trend has been for any heat on models to end up less than expected

Remember September 1980 was scorching..many days in the upper 80's but just 3 days in the 90's for the month.

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2 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I mean the high for Chicago on September 11th the first day of NFL football in 108 degrees on the GFS..Really that is hard to believe for September.

GFS is often warm in the LR.  Only reason to buy into it is that the Euro and CMC agree with the heat this go around...

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38 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

How many times has it reached 100 in NYC in September?..Has there ever been a heat wavein September with 7 days in a row with temps above 90?...I doubt that has ever happened

NYC & Philadelphia both recorded 100 degree days during SEPT 1881 & 1953. NYC had (1) 100 degree day in each of those 2 years while Philadelphia had (2) in 1953 & (1) in 1881.

For both locations the SEPT max temp record is 102 degrees.

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17 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

I mean the high for Chicago on September 11th the first day of NFL football in 108 degrees on the GFS..Really that is hard to believe for September.

Dallas & the Eagles played opening day, 9/3/2000, in 109 degree weather at Texas Stadium. This is the hottest game in NFL history. Sad part for Dallas they had to play the next week in 100 degree weather at Tempe, AZ. They lost both games.

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The difference here is that models seem to have this heat coming in on a W or NW wind which downslope heats us up vs the high humidity heat on S winds. Those are the heat waves that can get us over 95 even near the coast when the sea breeze is held back. It's late in the season but no reason we can't get over 95 when areas of the Dakotas, Minnesota etc were just well into the 90s to 100. 

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

The difference here is that models seem to have this heat coming in on a W or NW wind which downslope heats us up vs the high humidity heat on S winds. Those are the heat waves that can get us over 95 even near the coast when the sea breeze is held back. It's late in the season but no reason we can't get over 95 when areas of the Dakotas, Minnesota etc were just well into the 90s to 100. 

when that happens i will believe it...given the  bad track record of the models this summer i doubt it will happen..

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Does look interesting to me after Sept 7 for the tropics along the mid Atlc and northeast USA coast...... weakness troughing and tending to develop trough westward and latitudinally further south from the Atlantic and signs of storms in the w Atlc in ensemble members.  Two sets of ensembles have in recent cycles shown above normal rainfall for NYC subforum in the period roughly 9/8-15. (EPS/GEPS). 

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