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84 here, high of 86. NYC might have fallen just short of 90 today. Looking hotter as we head into the week, NYC could have its first heatwave of the year. Wednesday may be the hottest for those closest to the coast with some offshore flow early in the day.


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A September heatwave is in the early stages of development in the Middle Atlantic region. Today 90° or above temperatures included:

Atlantic City: 91°
Baltimore: 98° (old record: 97°, 1898)
Newark: 92°
Philadelphia: 92°
Richmond: 96°
Sterling, VA: 99° (old record: 96°, 1993) ***Tied September record***
Washington, DC: 97°
Wilmington, DE: 93°

Labor Day will be fair and hot with temperatures reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s into southern New England. Middle and upper 90s are likely in Baltimore, Washington, and PHiladelphia. There is a chance that one or more of those cities could reach 100°.

The ECMWF weeklies suggest that the September 4-11 period could see temperatures average above to much above normal across the region. Parts of the region could see high temperatures peak at or above 90° on one or more days. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -13.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.898 today.

On August 31 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.743 (RMM). The August 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.788 (RMM).


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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Dews are in the mid 60s so it's not that low. 

But today is just the beginning. The next few days will be very hot and I bet we'll see advisories go up.

Read OKX AFD, lots of mixing & lower DPs during height of temps during the day.  LGA shows this today, went to upper 50s.  EWR dropped to 61 I see quickly.


BUFKIT soundings prog 850 mb temperatures around 20C on Monday, and
with a well-mixed BL, surface temperatures should climb into the
high 80s and low 90s in the afternoon for most, or about 10 degrees
above normal. Surface high pressure centered over the Southeast
provides a light westerly flow, except where coastal sea breezes
develop and back winds southerly in the afternoon. An upper
disturbance rounding the ridge will allow for some mid and high level
clouds during the day, but precipitation is not expected. It remains
mild overnight into Tuesday, with the metro only falling into the
mid 70s.

The ridge slides overhead Tuesday, with similar, if not a smidge
warmer, conditions expected. Continued deep mixing likely allows dew
pts to fall below NBM both days as often the case. Blended in the
10th percentile as a compromise, yielding low to mid 60s during the
day. Its possible the low-levels dry out a bit more than forecast,
and this is the challenge as it comes to heat headlines.
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46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Dews are in the mid 60s so it's not that low. 

But today is just the beginning. The next few days will be very hot and I bet we'll see advisories go up.

Dews were upper 60s out here earlier, 69 at ISP and currently 68 at FRG. 

Very muggy on the island. 

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