September 2023

[jm1220]

A few drops. 

On a better note winds are now NW which means this disgusting humidity is on its way out.

[gravitylover]

Last of the clouds have moved east, now it's time to dry out. It can't happen quickly enough... 

[CIK62]

NOTHING BURGER COMING:

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, some of the coolest temperatures so far this fall are likely. Most areas outside of New York City and Philadelphia will see lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s through Friday. New York City could even experience its first sub-60° low temperature of this fall.

Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm over the next several days. The guidance favors landfall in New Brunswick, but landfall along the Maine or Nova Scotia coast cannot be ruled out. Eastern Long Island and eastern New England could some periods of heavy rain and gusty winds as Lee passes offshore.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -15.63 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.502 today.

On September 11 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.188 (RMM). The September 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.213 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal).

 

[Will - Rutgers]

it’s nice out again

absolutely beautiful forecast in front of us if it verifies, indian summer conditions

[JerseyWx]

3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said:

it’s nice out again

absolutely beautiful forecast in front of us if it verifies, indian summer conditions

Yeah looks like a pretty great stretch.  My forecast is calling for a string of mid-70's by day, and mid-50's at night starting on Sunday.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.35" of rain of the day yesterday. 

6 day rainfall total ending yesterday 4.38"

[LoboLeader1]

A comfortable 60F as of six this morning, very little rain here from yesterday's FROPA.

[bluewave]

Right back to the endless summer pattern after several days closer to average. Big -PNA trough will pump the SE Ridge later in the month. September since 2010 has been more a more like a summer month rather than a fall month. 
 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   70degs.(62/78) or +1.

GFS is just a Trace in the next 15 days and at least 80 everyday starting Sunday.

Reached 86 here yesterday at 5:30pm. with H.I. of 95.

Today:  74-78, wind n.-breezy, few clouds,  60 by tomorrow AM.

68*(75%RH) here at 7am.     67* at 9am.       71* at Noon.       78* at 4pm.      Reached 79* at 5pm.      75* at 7pm.     68* at 10pm.

 

[Allsnow]

Looks like 40’s tonight and tomorrow night in the suburbs 

[SnoSki14]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Right back to the endless summer pattern after several days closer to average. Big -PNA trough will pump the SE Ridge later in the month. So numerous days in the 80s should return with the chance of the warm spots in NJ registering a few 85-90° days. September since 2010 has been more a more like a summer month rather than a fall month. 
 

 

Of course this happens when the cooler season arrives. 

Oh well I guess I'll be wearing shorts til Thanksgiving 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Of course this happens when the cooler season arrives. 

Oh well I guess I'll be wearing shorts til Thanksgiving 

Septembers have been getting steadily warmer since the 80s and 90s. Most of the Septembers in recent years have averaged over 70° around NYC. So plenty of top 10 warmest Septembers.

 

[psv88]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like 40’s tonight and tomorrow night in the suburbs 

Most suburbs will be in the 50s, low 60s in the metro. 40s confined to well inland. 
 

winds stay up the next few days so there will not be great radiational cooling. 
 

40s will wait until October 

[Allsnow]

30 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Most suburbs will be in the 50s, low 60s in the metro. 40s confined to well inland. 
 

winds stay up the next few days so there will not be great radiational cooling. 
 

40s will wait until October 

You won’t see 40’s until December on Long Island 

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You won’t see 40’s until December on Long Island 

Spiders the size of rats by Christmas? 

[Volcanic Winter]

Not gonna lie, even though it’s meaningless in September hearing about a -PNA spike is like triggering PTSD for me. 

Being that this is NJ/NY, can’t we find someone to just kill it? Somebody’s gotta know a guy who knows a guy, right?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Not gonna lie, even though it’s meaningless in September hearing about a -PNA spike is like triggering PTSD for me. 

Being that this is NJ/NY, can’t we find someone to just kill it? Somebody’s gotta know a guy who knows a guy, right?

I know a guy 

[rclab]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I know a guy 

Good morning Anthony. Former Commissioner? Stay safe, as always ….

[forkyfork]

couldn't even get below mid 60s last night

[Rtd208]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I know a guy 

 

35 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Anthony. Former Commissioner? Stay safe, as always ….

Remember that time they found Frankie Carbone in the meat truck? 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Septembers have been getting steadily warmer since the 80s and 90s. Most of the Septembers in recent years have averaged over 70° around NYC. So plenty of top 10 warmest Septembers.

 

Chris, to your knowledge, has there ever been another decade of warm Septembers like this?  The trend is so pronounced that people who don’t obsess over the weather like us seem to be noticing.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

You won’t see 40’s until December on Long Island 

Parakeets in @Cfa garden until January 

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

9/13

 

EWR: 83
ACY: 83
New Bnswck: 83
PHL: 83
BLM: 82
TEB:  82
LGA: 81
TTN: 81
ISP: 80
JFK: 79
NYC: 79

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

Dune road always the first to washover 

[SACRUS]

 

72 / 51.  On way to a gorgeous stretch of weather through the weekend.  Only clouds from Lee (maybe from NJ shore east) Saturday (9/16) and waves/surf.  Mid upper 70s and then back near or low 80s by Sun (9/17).  Mon (9/18) next shot at showers/rain.  Ridging into the east but some onshore flow and you see potential for cut off low undercutting an any ridging, but overall warm finish to Sep, need to watch for rain chances if anything cuts of nearby.

 

Lee nearing the Atlantic coast ME - Can 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Chris, to your knowledge, has there ever been another decade of warm Septembers like this?  The trend is so pronounced that people who don’t obsess over the weather like us seem to be noticing.

This is something new. I left off 2023 since we are only halfway through the month. But we are on track for another top 5 or 10 warmest September. The average temperature will easily remain above 70°. Notice the big 2° jump in average temperature since 2010. Prior to that, the decadal averages were fairly steady from 1980 to 2009. Slower but steady temperature increase from 1950 to 1980. I am guessing this is a function of the rapidly warming SSTs to our east possibly in conjunction with the lower Arctic sea ice and warmer summers. So not much cold available to get fall going in September anymore. We tend to have later fall foliage peaks and leaf drops. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Sep	Season
Mean	70.7	70.7
2022	69.7	69.7
2021	72.5	72.5
2020	69.1	69.1
2019	70.8	70.8
2018	71.4	71.4
2017	70.9	70.9
2016	71.8	71.8
2015	73.4	73.4
2014	69.8	69.8
2013	67.2	67.2
2012	69.5	69.5
2011	71.2	71.2
2010	71.6	71.6

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Sep	Season
Mean	68.9	68.9
2009	66.9	66.9
2008	69.5	69.5
2007	70.1	70.1
2006	66.6	66.6
2005	73.5	73.5
2004	69.6	69.6
2003	68.6	68.6
2002	70.5	70.5
2001	67.4	67.4
2000	66.4	66.4

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Sep	Season
Mean	68.8	68.8
1999	69.3	69.3
1998	70.3	70.3
1997	66.9	66.9
1996	68.0	68.0
1995	68.6	68.6
1994	69.7	69.7
1993	69.1	69.1
1992	69.6	69.6
1991	67.9	67.9
1990	68.6	68.6

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Sep	Season
Mean	68.6	68.6
1989	69.9	69.9
1988	68.0	68.0
1987	68.7	68.7
1986	68.5	68.5
1985	70.2	70.2
1984	65.4	65.4
1983	70.6	70.6
1982	66.7	66.7
1981	67.1	67.1
1980	70.8	70.8

[Dan76]

Leaf drop used to be Halloween now its middle of Nov here.

[winterwx21]

Beautiful outside with dewpoints down to the low 50s, and heading down into the high 40s this afternoon. They'll stay in the 40s the next 2 days. Just a brief minor humidity spike sunday night into monday (dewpoints near 60) with a couple showers possible, and then back to spectacular weather tuesday and wednesday with dewpoints falling back down to the low 50s. So overall a nice low humidity stretch over the next week, as you would hope for in mid September. 

Long range looks warm as bluewave talked about, but in late September that type of pattern would result in some days with high temps in the low 80s and dewpoints around 60. Nice extended summer weather.