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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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17 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677672000-1678190400-1678492800-40-1.thumb.gif.b43bee60710b7bef75585e77302e73aa.gif

NWS Albany:

Overall there is a blocking pattern developing with huge ridging
across Central Canada and this weekends storm retrograding slightly
back into the Canadian Maritimes but for now with no consequences
for us except northerly flow and perhaps a weak, moisture starved
disturbances but timing out is really not possible this far
out.

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9 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Terrible timing.  A kid get hit by a car while boarding a bus yesterday morning.  2nd time this year a kids been hit by a car in the morning during snow.

The child was hit by an SUV that was being driven by a female student of South Portland High School, the release said.

The driver of the SUV is being charged with passing a stopped school bus with flashing lights, a class E offense, authorities said, adding that the driver said she didn't see the boy, nor the flashing school bus stop sign.

 

ffs. maybe stop texting and pay fkn attention

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18 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

NWS Albany:

Overall there is a blocking pattern developing with huge ridging
across Central Canada and this weekends storm retrograding slightly
back into the Canadian Maritimes but for now with no consequences
for us except northerly flow and perhaps a weak, moisture starved
disturbances but timing out is really not possible this far
out.

i can see that happening that far north, suppression can be an issue up there

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7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The child was hit by an SUV that was being driven by a female student of South Portland High School, the release said.

The driver of the SUV is being charged with passing a stopped school bus with flashing lights, a class E offense, authorities said, adding that the driver said she didn't see the boy, nor the flashing school bus stop sign.

 

ffs. maybe stop texting and pay fkn attention

100%  The roads were shitty yesterday morning, too.  all the more reason to put the phone down.  the road where it happened is full of kids walking to the high school or getting on busses to go to the middle/elementary schools.

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Wow what an awful commute this morning!  We started snowing about an inch per hour at home about 5:30am.  I left the house at 6:30 and had 1.2 new in that time but was in a slight lull.  From getting on I-89 at Exit 2 (mm 13) to exit 5 (mm 41 or so) it was snowing at least 1 inch per hour.  At one point north of Randolph visibility was down to about 1/20 of a mile.  After exit 5 it lightened almost immediately with almost no snow at all.

There were multiple cars off the road as well

 

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3” at home, already settling. Higher on the hill this morning was closer to 4 or 5” and much better consistency. What a joy to ski powder all week and Saturday looks like another fantastic day on tap. It’s been a while since we’ve had a stretch in this part of NNE and we were due. 

photo from yesterday 


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8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Pretty quiet in here wrt our mid month HECS… No feels at this early juncture?

There's nothing to actually track ?

That's probably why ... that may change, should/if/when future guidance start to coalesce something within that generally framed time period of vulnerability - which is still there.

The telecon numerics have a modestly upward correcting PNA ... but probably sufficient when than adding these pulsing blocking nodes over top at latitude.  The NAO decays, as the EPO bursts ... and each time these relay across the mass field happen you run risk of restoring event ( index scaled events) - the PNA offers lowering resistance to actually carving out eastern heights for a f'um change.. 

The 12z GFS has two out there ...but too primitive to be considering targets.. It really looks like it's more respond to the background potential and probably the depiction is different in future runs, enough so to guess these are not "it" ...

There is a 'little critter' early next week that the GFS has been getting more developed with. It's getting late in the year though... we are entering into a dynamics and fall-rates requirement, more and more with each passing week.

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