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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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18 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually has a very well-placed sfc high....that's how we know it won't verify in this season.

 

The period ~ 5th -11th has plausibility above climo ... I wouldn't start at thread in spring, at this range ...unless a signal were 'extraordinary,' but this is a robust index relationship/correlation out there, nonetheless. 

And ... it also takes a bit of bravery on my part to even bring it up considering how checked out I am, hate and despise anything resembling winter at this point... but, I am at the end of the day always seeking the most objective impression on matters.  So hats off to me I guess... haha. 

No but the PNA index takes the continent through a massive mid latitude implication around that time span. I wouldn't laugh it off ...  there are operational runs that are responding ( I believe ...) to that forcing, as despite the longish lead they all have 582 dm closed anticyclonic height node over the Rockies ... Regardless of whether these exact cinemas play out the way they see it, they are outlooks the fit the following.  

Both the Euro and GEFs EPO computations result in an important dip, roughly between the 1st and 5th of April... +2 to -1 SD, perhaps crucial loading numbers when then also comparing the synoptic actuals.  There is an apparent temporal relay, as the PNA then has a much more massive correction .. Right around the 3rd or 4th, the index enters modality ...ultimately rising from -4 to just over 0 SD by the 9th or 10th!  That's a truly massive correction signal there. But the impetus here is in the term 'relay' - first the EPO loads....then the PNA totes it along and delivers it to 40 N ( typically).  That's the idealized model, and then with onset +PNA ...you get the storm potential and the rest is history... 

Now... bearing in mind, the sun/seasonal forcing will be normalizing lower troposphere, compensating baroclinic gradients/cold more and more. This could either result in nothing more than a chilly trough, or.. if timing is right, we can inject prior to homogenizing ...That's usually how we get it done post April 1s

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14 hours ago, dryslot said:

Starting out with some -SN right now before we flip so ole ma nature won't let us out.

Had 1.5" of 37.5-to-1 feathers (0.04" LE) 7-9 last evening, another 1.5" of more common spring snow (0.18"/8.3-to-1) thru sunrise. The ratio for the 3.0" total, 13.6-to-1, doesn't quite describe the snow.  Currently RA- and low 30s.  Trees were gorgeous at 7 AM, most snow off the hardwood branches by now.

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49 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Had 1.5" of 37.5-to-1 feathers (0.04" LE) 7-9 last evening, another 1.5" of more common spring snow (0.18"/8.3-to-1) thru sunrise. The ratio for the 3.0" total, 13.6-to-1, doesn't quite describe the snow.  Currently RA- and low 30s.  Trees were gorgeous at 7 AM, most snow off the hardwood branches by now.

1.5” here as well overnight.

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On 3/14/2023 at 4:49 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I already know where this is headed so let’s nip this in the bud now.

@ORH_wxman, if you see me in this thread any time between after this post and the conclusion of the month, I ask that you ban me from the subforum until April 15.

I mean it. I’m done torturing myself. If I even look at the hot stove of “ten day potential” I need you to put me in timeout.

I’ll be back posting about wx when snow is actually falling and accumulating, or even better, when this winter is dead and buried. 

 

On 3/14/2023 at 5:28 PM, Heisy said:


Why though?! I live down in Philly and haven’t seen more than a car topper. We have all late spring, summer, and fall until it can snow again. Pattern actually looks decent, go all in!


.

 

On 3/14/2023 at 5:34 PM, George001 said:

Why do you track storms if you don’t enjoy it? 

Now that the self-imposed exile is over, I can post. Never even got close to opening this thread after that post. 

Heisy--I knew what was coming lol. 

George--I enjoy tracking storms. I have no interest in chasing ghosts. 

It was a bad winter here. It happens. Better luck next year. 

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8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

After all the potential, all the threats, H5 looking about as good as it could be...i don't even have a tenth to show for it. Complete shut out, once again. 

This entire season reminds me of what it was like living in southeastern PA. In the end I still ended up with close to 12ish inches here and still better than a few years living down there, but it just felt like there was never a legitimate threat besides and advisory system. I barely used a shovel...just felt odd, living here in SNE....

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