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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Obviously everyone has seen the uptick is modeling cinema to begin the month of March....most notably the EURO and ICON,  which jive with  my thoughts from November.

Lets see how this holds up....

March 2023 Outlook
March Analogs: 1956, 1962, 1965, 1971, 1975,1981,1984, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018
Obviously confidence at this range is modest at best, but if there is to be another major disruption of the polar vortex and a return to high latitude blocking, it will be this month. And while a SSW warming event is unlikely, if there is one to occur it will be from latter February into March and it will be a race against the ascending sun angle for winter enthusiasts to reap the benefits. Historically speaking, blocking during the month of March during a W QBO/cool ENSO season is unlikely, but if it does indeed come to fruition, than the mid Atlantic could potentially receive more in the way of significant snowfall.
 
AVvXsEhOsAmbto2PVWO22iXEWx-HV3ytsKIsoLPx
W QBO/Cool ENSO FM H5
 
 
 
But one factor working in favor of a return of high latitude blocking is that la nina should be just about dissipated by this point, thus the March 2023 forecast composite implies that it is possible:
 
AVvXsEhMvScymhKPi15FOutMtUcdecH-PUiL2Qyh
 
If there is to be a second window for major winter storm development, it would be between March 1 to 15th.
This is, again, a low confidence venture, and winter should end in relatively unremarkable manner should it fail to come to fruition.
 
March 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies:
1951-2010:
AVvXsEhoCMHk5uEn9Vg_6MI1-TUNOcjgZYMVlvGe

1991-2020:
 
AVvXsEgWtvalq4lfQ2LTTb-sQ5gLL3-W9ZOAkMwq
March 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies:
 
1951-2010:
 
AVvXsEjq2OcmO5pAfxBeh8JdPHNOg_OhCBy_rek-

1991-2020:
 
AVvXsEijJvuQ0Xgqmiz2iFf47_UoEUElzpTQsLi6
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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obviously everyone has seen the uptick is modeling cinema to begin the month of March....most notably the EURO and ICON,  which jive with  my thoughts from November.

Lets see how this holds up....

March 2023 Outlook
March Analogs: 1956, 1962, 1965, 1971, 1975,1981,1984, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018
Obviously confidence at this range is modest at best, but if there is to be another major disruption of the polar vortex and a return to high latitude blocking, it will be this month. And while a SSW warming event is unlikely, if there is one to occur it will be from latter February into March and it will be a race against the ascending sun angle for winter enthusiasts to reap the benefits. Historically speaking, blocking during the month of March during a W QBO/cool ENSO season is unlikely, but if it does indeed come to fruition, than the mid Atlantic could potentially receive more in the way of significant snowfall.
 
AVvXsEhOsAmbto2PVWO22iXEWx-HV3ytsKIsoLPx
W QBO/Cool ENSO FM H5
 
 
 
But one factor working in favor of a return of high latitude blocking is that la nina should be just about dissipated by this point, thus the March 2023 forecast composite implies that it is possible:
 
AVvXsEhMvScymhKPi15FOutMtUcdecH-PUiL2Qyh
 
If there is to be a second window for major winter storm development, it would be between March 1 to 15th.
This is, again, a low confidence venture, and winter should end in relatively unremarkable manner should it fail to come to fruition.
 
March 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies:
1951-2010:
AVvXsEhoCMHk5uEn9Vg_6MI1-TUNOcjgZYMVlvGe

1991-2020:
 
AVvXsEgWtvalq4lfQ2LTTb-sQ5gLL3-W9ZOAkMwq
March 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies:
 
1951-2010:
 
AVvXsEjq2OcmO5pAfxBeh8JdPHNOg_OhCBy_rek-

1991-2020:
 
AVvXsEijJvuQ0Xgqmiz2iFf47_UoEUElzpTQsLi6

I don't like the ridging over the southwest in that composite, but otherwise, I think it looks doable.

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Behind Feb 28th- March 1st Miller B there is another huge storm behind it on the models. It is cutting right now yes, but I am noticing a strengthening signal for secondary redevelopment. The crazy thing is, as strong as the late Feb/Early March storm looks to be, the one right behind it looks just as big if not bigger. 

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5 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

Surface temperatures verbatim are too warm for snow anywhere in eastern half of continental US for this beast on the Euro.

The Euro suite is definitely ugly for 3/4 all of the sudden. Very strong cutter signal on the EPS…other guidance isn’t as bad but I didn’t love the 12z look today overall. Hopefully it trends back in the next few cycles. 

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March 4th threat looks interesting on gfs and Canadian. I didn’t like what I saw from the Euro and EPS for that one at 12z, but it’s a good start to the 0z suite for that threat. Even though we had a couple bad Euro cycles for that one I still like that potential. It is very possible we get hit by both the 28th-1st and 4th.

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15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Euro suite is definitely ugly for 3/4 all of the sudden. Very strong cutter signal on the EPS…other guidance isn’t as bad but I didn’t love the 12z look today overall. Hopefully it trends back in the next few cycles. 

Hopefully one of those later events pan out because it would seriously blow to come out of this with one moderate event. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully one of those later events pan out because it would seriously blow to come out of this with one moderate event. 

3/2-3/4 period doesn't look as ugly as yesterday did on EPS. There will be a chance in there I think

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ENS are much improved by overall for the 3/4 threat. lower heights over the E US seems to be the theme

2CB14B6B-5AF7-4EA1-840B-C69A64CD4985.thumb.png.dc29d1628c9ced2a9218e560f635677b.png8E302657-0132-4AF5-B223-6AFB66C09698.thumb.png.c374c0dec10e4968017f323092086361.png

00z --> 06z may have started that trend from this particular tool. 

Offering a little cross-guidance ... unfortunately offers less support, as the EPS seems to be caught between that sneaky Mar 2nd system and this one above... perhaps some noise induced wave destruction

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17 minutes ago, George001 said:

The gfs is a beast for March 4th, it does exactly what I was rooting for the 28th storm to do, it goes over the canal and deepens to the 970s. Man that would be something, that’s gotta be nearly half a foot of sleet for some areas in SE Mass verbatim. 

except that it's not a Miller B

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