40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Obviously everyone has seen the uptick is modeling cinema to begin the month of March....most notably the EURO and ICON, which jive with my thoughts from November. Lets see how this holds up.... March 2023 Outlook March Analogs: 1956, 1962, 1965, 1971, 1975,1981,1984, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018 Obviously confidence at this range is modest at best, but if there is to be another major disruption of the polar vortex and a return to high latitude blocking, it will be this month. And while a SSW warming event is unlikely, if there is one to occur it will be from latter February into March and it will be a race against the ascending sun angle for winter enthusiasts to reap the benefits. Historically speaking, blocking during the month of March during a W QBO/cool ENSO season is unlikely, but if it does indeed come to fruition, than the mid Atlantic could potentially receive more in the way of significant snowfall. W QBO/Cool ENSO FM H5 But one factor working in favor of a return of high latitude blocking is that la nina should be just about dissipated by this point, thus the March 2023 forecast composite implies that it is possible: If there is to be a second window for major winter storm development, it would be between March 1 to 15th.This is, again, a low confidence venture, and winter should end in relatively unremarkable manner should it fail to come to fruition. March 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: March 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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