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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Wowzers

image.png.99cf93ab475cc2eb24f47dda69ce2777.png

Seems an easy guess work that this spring has a chance to be above normal severe accounting ... what, with the semi permanent unflappable f'n western trough?  wait'll the diabatics of April solar inferno kicks in the big dawg CAPEs.

Can't think of a better leading persistence --> cyclic earth carving twister events...

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems an easy guess work that this spring has a chance to be above normal severe accounting ... what, with the semi permanent unflappable f'n western trough?  wait'll the diabatics of April solar inferno kicks in the big dawg CAPEs.

Can't think of a better leading persistence --> cyclic earth carving twister events...

Yeah if this regime remains through the next few months it's going to be very active. In fact, I think we may be above-average for tornado counts this year thus far. There were some pretty impressive January and February events. There were even setups that didn't pan out so the counts could really be more. SST's are crazy warm in the Gulf so you get deep troughs into the West this time of year and strong s/w ejecting, it's a recipe for widespread outbreaks within that region. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah if this regime remains through the next few months it's going to be very active. In fact, I think we may be above-average for tornado counts this year thus far. There were some pretty impressive January and February events. There were even setups that didn't pan out so the counts could really be more. SST's are crazy warm in the Gulf so you get deep troughs into the West this time of year and strong s/w ejecting, it's a recipe for widespread outbreaks within that region. 

and I think it is interesting that the SE has already got some elevated twister accounting, too... That's been papered to be a part of CC btw - so this season adds...

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Looking across the CONUS from ORD-BOS in the various model cinemas ... it appears there will never be a warm season this year, and in fact, CC is a scam and the ice age is nearly upon.

Particularly true, in this recent state of the art upgraded GFS model's ... blithe disregard for seasonal change - so it seems.

Although, the Euro seems to be shirking seasonal change, too - just in its own inimitable appeal... Neither it nor the GFS seem to acknowledge any geophysical fact that it's f'um April. 

And no, no snow from that - so don't bother with the 'so long as it won't be warm we may as whole hope' mantra because there is none for that, either...  Just cold and infuriating for everyone else.

'Course, we mustn't delude ourselves from the very real and worth-while perspective on April as being the utmost shitbag month out of the year...

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seems an easy guess work that this spring has a chance to be above normal severe accounting ... what, with the semi permanent unflappable f'n western trough?  wait'll the diabatics of April solar inferno kicks in the big dawg CAPEs.

Can't think of a better leading persistence --> cyclic earth carving twister events...

Going to be a busy day, upgrade to tornado driven high risk incoming.

 

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0390
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern
   Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri

   Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

   Valid 311537Z - 311630Z

   SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA,
   northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a
   categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook.

   DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30%
   probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental
   conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential
   for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes
   across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far
   northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for
   more information.

   ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023

3311highrisk.jpg

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Lots of weather today.  I hope the tornadoes that form will miss towns and cities. 

On the cold side of things the models seem to be more bullish for a period of accumulating snow up here.  Gray doesn't even have me in a Hazardous Weather Outlook area.  Snow map says less than an inch.  I'm 39/14F right now  This could be a sneaky event this evening.  Just cold rain tomorrow.  CAD will win and my string of no 50F this year will continue.  So close but so far.

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I feel like phasing imperfections like that nipple low can be caused by low western heights, too....because phasing systems are akin to tropical systems in that they are very sensitive to less than ideal permutations in the flow. A bit more ridging out west and lower SE heights could have allowed for a more proficient phase, so I don't want to come off as though its all a product of chance. My forecast definitely wasn't perfect.

Very happy with how I handled the artic this year...but what went on out west was just soooo anomalous that it really threw a major wrinkle in things this season.

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58 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Lots of weather today.  I hope the tornadoes that form will miss towns and cities. 

On the cold side of things the models seem to be more bullish for a period of accumulating snow up here.  Gray doesn't even have me in a Hazardous Weather Outlook area.  Snow map says less than an inch.  I'm 39/14F right now  This could be a sneaky event this evening.  Just cold rain tomorrow.  CAD will win and my string of no 50F this year will continue.  So close but so far.

Will be 60+ here tomorrow. Come on down.

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Alta, Utah over 800” (now 50” more than record year).

23” last 12 hours and 33” last 24th.  Storm total 40”.

Another 30-50” storm coming after the weekend.  At this rate they’ll be near 1,000” by season’s end lol.

Remarks: A temporary break in the storm cycle this weekend, before the next potent storm system impacts the area beginning Sunday night and continuing through at least Tuesday, and potentially into Wednesday. This colder system looks to bring and additional 30 to 40 inches of snow through Tuesday with 2.00-2.50 inches of water. Some potential exists for larger numbers depending on how the overall trough evolves beyond Tuesday.

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