January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[SnoSki14]

13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There’s likely to be an exitus out of California at some point in the next 20 to 40 years. 

Probably the same for most coastal states especially Florida 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Probably the same for most coastal states especially Florida 

Nah those states will continue to gain people. 

[bwt3650]

People are leaving most coastal states in 20 years???  What?

[Typhoon Tip]

Don't give up on the 5th-8th as a winter re-entry event.  That appears a "pattern inflection" period. Not a bad time to go looking.

Longer read,

Until then, we hiatus ... how much/to what extent could be interesting in itself - of course... not likely to catch interest in this particular internet depot ( lol).  It is also iffy how extreme because the ambient polar boundary is oscillating NW-SE-NW etc not too far away.  Cyclic waves running along it from roughly the MV to our region or the Lakes. These will likely interfere some amount, some way. It does appear there are two main warm pulses...  one between D3 and 4/5, the next some 3 days later .. Then, it's over? 

The end time of this demonstrative positive departure interval has been interestingly quite stable both intra-guidance but also crossing.  Right around the 5th ..give or take.  After about that range, the overall model complexion illustrates relaxed flow +PNAP enveloping the continent.

That would be an interesting mode. The last 10 winters pretty much all have featured mid winter plagues of too many isohypses to count and concomitant baseline g-wind velocities so strong that we've been setting air-land relative commercial air speed records for intercontinental oceanic flights, like ...everywhere.  The thing with 'baggy' patterns that sort of look +PNA like: I've seen this in the past, ...and ancient past ( god am I getting old...). The models will create a kind of vague semblances of either + or -PNA's in an overall baggy flow, ...but then, as the time gets nearer, gradually more gradient emerges, and the reasserting pattern can take on more coherency.  This could be some of that... unknown.  The CPC numerical PNA is statically positive along or just shy of +1SD so...mm.  Thing is, any western trough could certainly be corrected if not booted east for that. There is an overall correction vector to raise heights along 100-130 W more than we're seeing in deterministic solutions, so long as those EOF/derivatives point that way.

La Nina appears to be weakening in the OLR distribution products since the last update... which was largely based upon November through mid December ( at most).  I'm not sure how that would happen without the an accompanying +SOI weakening... But, seeing as NCEP's put up a 70+% odds of establishing a neutral Basin by just a month from now, we may indeed be seeing that commencing.  I mention this for two reasons:

one ... there are longer range tendencies for MJO to actually penetrate E of the W. Pacific La Nina fire wall ...instead of getting to phase 7 and then summarily dying on the interface with 8.   I don't believe the MJO drives patterns and never have.  It's a modulator... But, that modulation only can happen if the surrounding hemisphere is in constructive interference.  It thus seems intriguing ( a little) that La Nina may be weakening ( if that's true.), and then modeled MJO coherency takes place. 

two ... the ocean-atmosphere in the Pacific has been very well coupled this particularly recent three month period.  It is what it is.  So long as that has been the case/trend, there may be some lock-step decay of the La Nina and the emergence of favorable winter enthusiastic January/latter.  I seldom venture into seasonal outlook territory, but I just keep sensing this appeal like the planetary system is competing with the La Nina ... it's like trailing by a touchdown and a field goal but your team just scored and the other side just threw an interception.  You have momentum on your side? 

 

[SnoSki14]

28 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

People are leaving most coastal states in 20 years???  What?

20 is likely too soon but definitely in 40. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

20 is likely too soon but definitely in 40. 

Yep

Increased ocean temps = tsunamis and hurricanes .

Sooner or late NYC would have to worry about hurricanes more than snow.

[DJln491]

5 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z gfs is Kevin’s dream storm for Jan 6-8. That storm has had a wintry signal on gfs for the past 3-4 days. 

what happened to that on the GFS? seems to have completely disappeared this last run

[512high]

37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't give up on the 5th-8th as a winter re-entry event.  That appears a "pattern inflection" period. Not a bad time to go looking.

Longer read,

Until then, we hiatus ... how much/to what extent could be interesting in itself - of course... not likely to catch interest in this particular internet depot ( lol).  It is also iffy how extreme because the ambient polar boundary is oscillating NW-SE-NW etc not too far away.  Cyclic waves running along it from roughly the MV to our region or the Lakes. These will likely interfere some amount, some way. It does appear there are two main warm pulses...  one between D3 and 4/5, the next some 3 days later .. Then, it's over? 

The end time of this demonstrative positive departure interval has been interestingly quite stable both intra-guidance but also crossing.  Right around the 5th ..give or take.  After about that range, the overall model complexion illustrates relaxed flow +PNAP enveloping the continent.

That would be an interesting mode. The last 10 winters pretty much all have featured mid winter plagues of too many isohypses to count and concomitant baseline g-wind velocities so strong that we've been setting air-land relative commercial air speed records for intercontinental oceanic flights, like ...everywhere.  The thing with 'baggy' patterns that sort of look +PNA like: I've seen this in the past, ...and ancient past ( god am I getting old...). The models will create a kind of vague semblances of either + or -PNA's in an overall baggy flow, ...but then, as the time gets nearer, gradually more gradient emerges, and the reasserting pattern can take on more coherency.  This could be some of that... unknown.  The CPC numerical PNA is statically positive along or just shy of +1SD so...mm.  Thing is, any western trough could certainly be corrected if not booted east for that. There is an overall correction vector to raise heights along 100-130 W more than we're seeing in deterministic solutions, so long as those EOF/derivatives point that way.

La Nina appears to be weakening in the OLR distribution products since the last update... which was largely based upon November through mid December ( at most).  I'm not sure how that would happen without the an accompanying +SOI weakening... But, seeing as NCEP's put up a 70+% odds of establishing a neutral Basin by just a month from now, we may indeed be seeing that commencing.  I mention this for two reasons:

one ... there are longer range tendencies for MJO to actually penetrate E of the W. Pacific La Nina fire wall ...instead of getting to phase 7 and then summarily dying on the interface with 8.   I don't believe the MJO drives patterns and never have.  It's a modulator... But, that modulation only can happen if the surrounding hemisphere is in constructive interference.  It thus seems intriguing ( a little) that La Nina may be weakening ( if that's true.), and then modeled MJO coherency takes place. 

two ... the ocean-atmosphere in the Pacific has been very well coupled this particularly recent three month period.  It is what it is.  So long as that has been the case/trend, there may be some lock-step decay of the La Nina and the emergence of favorable winter enthusiastic January/latter.  I seldom venture into seasonal outlook territory, but I just keep sensing this appeal like the planetary system is competing with the La Nina ... it's like trailing by a touchdown and a field goal but your team just scored and the other side just threw an interception.  You have momentum on your side? 

 

Tip, you will be in charge of starting a thread when we get closer to "threat"...(unless your apprentice George starts one tonight etc. Haha) 

[weathafella]

Zzzzz...

I will begin to seriously consider everything in about a week.  Until then, enjoy the break from winter and the holiday season.

[qg_omega]

Trough west coast and SE ridge for the next three weeks.  Nothing to change this either in the long range 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Trough west coast and SE ridge for the next three weeks.  Nothing to change this either in the long range 

next three weeks. do you mean 10 days? because pretty much everyone would agree with you there

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Trough west coast and SE ridge for the next three weeks.  Nothing to change this either in the long range 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Increased ocean temps = tsunamis and hurricanes .

Sooner or late NYC would have to worry about hurricanes more than snow.

Hurricanes yes, but care to explain how warmer water leads to tsunamis? 

[powderfreak]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Increased ocean temps = tsunamis and hurricanes .

Sooner or late NYC would have to worry about hurricanes more than snow.

I think all coastal areas have worried more about hurricanes than snow... since humans have built shelter on the coast.  

Hurricanes are much more impactful than snow, thus higher worry.

[CoastalWx]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think all coastal areas have worried more about hurricanes than snow... since humans have built shelter on the coast.  

Hurricanes are much more impactful than snow, thus higher worry.

Yeah outside or maybe being priced out, I don’t see a mass flock away from the coastal areas.  

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Increased ocean temps = tsunamis and hurricanes .

Sooner or late NYC would have to worry about hurricanes more than snow.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah outside or maybe being priced out, I don’t see a mass flock away from the coastal areas.  

Yeah zero percent chance unless the ocean becomes radioactive or something.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah outside or maybe being priced out, I don’t see a mass flock away from the coastal areas.  

Up and in 

Away 

[alex]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah zero percent chance unless the ocean becomes radioactive or something.

Sharknadoes of yore

[bwt3650]

Yeah zero percent chance unless the ocean becomes radioactive or something.

No more coastal states and the sierras being snowless in twenty years…These are the conversations that happen when plus 20 anomalies show up in early jan.


.

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Hurricanes yes, but care to explain how warmer water leads to tsunamis? 

He forgot to mention the correlation between warmer waters and increased meteor strikes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't give up on the 5th-8th as a winter re-entry event.  That appears a "pattern inflection" period. Not a bad time to go looking.

Longer read,

Until then, we hiatus ... how much/to what extent could be interesting in itself - of course... not likely to catch interest in this particular internet depot ( lol).  It is also iffy how extreme because the ambient polar boundary is oscillating NW-SE-NW etc not too far away.  Cyclic waves running along it from roughly the MV to our region or the Lakes. These will likely interfere some amount, some way. It does appear there are two main warm pulses...  one between D3 and 4/5, the next some 3 days later .. Then, it's over? 

The end time of this demonstrative positive departure interval has been interestingly quite stable both intra-guidance but also crossing.  Right around the 5th ..give or take.  After about that range, the overall model complexion illustrates relaxed flow +PNAP enveloping the continent.

That would be an interesting mode. The last 10 winters pretty much all have featured mid winter plagues of too many isohypses to count and concomitant baseline g-wind velocities so strong that we've been setting air-land relative commercial air speed records for intercontinental oceanic flights, like ...everywhere.  The thing with 'baggy' patterns that sort of look +PNA like: I've seen this in the past, ...and ancient past ( god am I getting old...). The models will create a kind of vague semblances of either + or -PNA's in an overall baggy flow, ...but then, as the time gets nearer, gradually more gradient emerges, and the reasserting pattern can take on more coherency.  This could be some of that... unknown.  The CPC numerical PNA is statically positive along or just shy of +1SD so...mm.  Thing is, any western trough could certainly be corrected if not booted east for that. There is an overall correction vector to raise heights along 100-130 W more than we're seeing in deterministic solutions, so long as those EOF/derivatives point that way.

La Nina appears to be weakening in the OLR distribution products since the last update... which was largely based upon November through mid December ( at most).  I'm not sure how that would happen without the an accompanying +SOI weakening... But, seeing as NCEP's put up a 70+% odds of establishing a neutral Basin by just a month from now, we may indeed be seeing that commencing.  I mention this for two reasons:

one ... there are longer range tendencies for MJO to actually penetrate E of the W. Pacific La Nina fire wall ...instead of getting to phase 7 and then summarily dying on the interface with 8.   I don't believe the MJO drives patterns and never have.  It's a modulator... But, that modulation only can happen if the surrounding hemisphere is in constructive interference.  It thus seems intriguing ( a little) that La Nina may be weakening ( if that's true.), and then modeled MJO coherency takes place. 

two ... the ocean-atmosphere in the Pacific has been very well coupled this particularly recent three month period.  It is what it is.  So long as that has been the case/trend, there may be some lock-step decay of the La Nina and the emergence of favorable winter enthusiastic January/latter.  I seldom venture into seasonal outlook territory, but I just keep sensing this appeal like the planetary system is competing with the La Nina ... it's like trailing by a touchdown and a field goal but your team just scored and the other side just threw an interception.  You have momentum on your side? 

 

Yea, frankly ...I am just sitting out right now....given how high the frustration meter is, its going to fall on deaf ears, for the most part. There is a contingent that are just in full-tilt "obnoxiously defiant reverse psych mode" and are going to put up resistance to the mere notion that it will ever snow again. I just assume wait that out until they flip into extreme winter mode again once something becomes more imminent.

[RDRY]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep

Increased ocean temps = tsunamis and hurricanes .

Sooner or late NYC would have to worry about hurricanes more than snow.

 

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah outside or maybe being priced out, I don’t see a mass flock away from the coastal areas.  

I do think the Boston Seaport is more vulnerable than coastal FL.  A middling noreaster can cause tidal flooding nowadays.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Up and in 

Away 

bentcarrot.com

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I think all coastal areas have worried more about hurricanes than snow... since humans have built shelter on the coast.  

Hurricanes are much more impactful than snow, thus higher worry.

As a general statement, that's not even debatable IMO.  Specific to, say NYC, I think that March 1888 took more lives in the city than did any hurricane.  (Sandy is tops?)  Maybe some extended heat wave would be the closest to that blizzard.

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

next three weeks. do you mean 10 days? because pretty much everyone would agree with you there

Three weeks is 21 days

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Sharknadoes of yore

Not as scary as the SE ridge!

[mahk_webstah]

11 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Three weeks is 21 days

Troll on a roll

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Three weeks is 21 days

Yeah, not sure where your info is from. It's not going to be 21 days though. I give it to the end of next week where we see the changes. About 10 days.