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December 2022


dmillz25
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52 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 12z CMC shows an unusual scenario with rain approaching the area from both the west and the east at the same time around 240hrs. That's certainly uncommon. That specific depiction is unlikely to occur, and a wintrier outcome is definitely possible.

It starts as rain yes, but the Midwest low looks like it’s starting to transfer offshore and absorb the smaller retrograding low to make one massive low. Looking at the H5 I would think the low would strengthen enough to create its own cold air, leading to the rain snow line crashing south.

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Yes, I realize it's an OP run out at day 10. But it's another instance of the ssw precursor pattern look. Not terribly dissimilar from when I posted it from the GEFS the other day. IF we happen to transit through a look similar to this. You would look for that potential 15-30 days later. That's the lag time for this pattern. It's just another halfway decent example for now. Pretty cool to see it again though. Figured I'd mention it. 

20221201_044155.thumb.png.eb4233cefdeb55f52011453646b14dd5.png

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny, blustery, and cooler. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 46°

Philadelphia: 44°

Tomorrow will be fair and continued cool.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.7°; 15-Year: 49.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 49.3°; 15-Year: 49.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.9°

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November ended at   50.9[+2.9],  10th. Place.

The first 8 days of December are averaging     42degs.(36/49) or +2.

Not much going on here during the next 15 days.       If any falls, the period is 12/08-12

1671256800-BpT0X5x1LqM.png

Reached 58 here yesterday.

Today:     42-45, wind w. to nw.-breezy, m. sunny, 35 tomorrow AM.

36*(54%RH) here at 6am.         37* at 9pm       40* at Noon.       42* at 2pm.      Reached 43* at 3:30pm.       41* at 5pm.

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An EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern is forecast to develop. The transition to sustained cold could occur during the second week of December. Afterward, as mid-month approaches, the PNA is forecast to rise toward neutral levels. The rise in the PNA could coincide with an increase in potential snowfalls. Below is the PNA forecast and statistics for the percentage of days with measurable snowfall and 1" or more snowfall under EPO-/AO-/PNA-, EPO-/AO-/PNA+ and all other patterns for December (1950-2021).

image.jpeg.88122412ed404b7a5cf6298e4fe8e424.jpeg

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Anything the ops and ensembles show after day 4 is nonsense

They are trying to link up the SE ridge with the developing block because they dump the trough out west after day 4. 

However the ensemble trend has been to shift the western low further west and develop a ridge in the Rockies in the day 3-4 timeframe.

That trend will continue which will force the PV to move further S&E, not NW like models show. 

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39 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Too many cutters with upper 50s in a row. Dont like it. Looks like another two on tap

GFS has a cutter on the 12th and then warms it up after that going into mid December. Probably wrong but you never know.

Long range is very difficult to predict. So often we look 2 weeks down the road and see a potential pattern, but it ends up being much different when it gets closer. That's why I don't get too excited when good patterns are advertised. Good pattens don't always produce too. Our area averages less than 30 inches of snow per winter for a reason. I'll get excited when we have a legitimate winter storm threat at the day 5 range. 

At least it looks likely that we have cold air coming in one week from today, and there should be a good amount of cold air available in December. That will at least give us a decent chance of scoring sometime this month, but it's far from a guarantee. 

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20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anything the ops and ensembles show after day 4 is nonsense

They are trying to link up the SE ridge with the developing block because they dump the trough out west after day 4. 

However the ensemble trend has been to shift the western low further west and develop a ridge in the Rockies in the day 3-4 timeframe.

That trend will continue which will force the PV to move further S&E, not NW like models show. 

yeah I don't get the play by play on day 7 or even day 10 OP model runs...

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42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Anything the ops and ensembles show after day 4 is nonsense

They are trying to link up the SE ridge with the developing block because they dump the trough out west after day 4. 

However the ensemble trend has been to shift the western low further west and develop a ridge in the Rockies in the day 3-4 timeframe.

That trend will continue which will force the PV to move further S&E, not NW like models show. 

Why is it nonsense? Pretty common in a Nina. We are always fighting the SER and a general trof on the West coast. Especially given the GEFS is trending rhat direction, it isnt out of the question and is a possibility.

IMG_20221201_123309.gif

Eta: not saying it's correct. Just saying it could go this way. Have to wait and watch

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You can see why the GEFS and GEPS link the Greenland block up with the SE Ridge on todays runs. Notice how they are showing more of a MJO 5-6 than they were a few days ago. This is why the cutter storm track is showing up early in the month. It’s also another example of how day 11-15 forecasts can be so uncertain especially with the data sparse Pacific. So it takes patience with Pacific improvement when we have a La Niña background state. 

7B682716-FF66-42A8-A064-B6B94A877872.thumb.png.1f6171eaba19f821a6d1a9ae1cb81de9.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see why the GEFS and GEPS link the Greenland block up with the SE Ridge on todays runs. Notice how they are showing more of a MJO 5-6 than they were a few days ago. This is why the cutter storm track is showing up early in the month. It’s also another example of how day 11-15 forecasts can be so uncertain especially with the data sparse Pacific. So it takes patience with Pacific improvement when we have a La Niña background state. 

7B682716-FF66-42A8-A064-B6B94A877872.thumb.png.1f6171eaba19f821a6d1a9ae1cb81de9.png

5AB6A383-D402-4593-84C7-8A306EA74062.thumb.png.e6e1d0c24b37b80ca0b35be00b5803de.png

202F3B37-2F9D-4399-B42B-7AF719E6ABE7.png.69496b84fbb7158794d2a2c55b040d71.png

13EE1A96-015B-4E03-96DC-C1DF1ADB15B9.thumb.png.f83de30738db9adf074fbb5a0306f539.png

587F4806-6973-4E01-A9B8-22F4193A1A71.thumb.png.4d3acbb378f6d97f8d8c49cd0ba1074b.png


 

 

Definitely a can kick today on all the guidance with regards to the pac. Hopefully this pattern doesn’t stay in the 11-15 day all month 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see why the GEFS and GEPS link the Greenland block up with the SE Ridge on todays runs. Notice how they are showing more of a MJO 5-6 than they were a few days ago. This is why the cutter storm track is showing up early in the month. It’s also another example of how day 11-15 forecasts can be so uncertain especially with the data sparse Pacific. So it takes patience with Pacific improvement when we have a La Niña background state. 

7B682716-FF66-42A8-A064-B6B94A877872.thumb.png.1f6171eaba19f821a6d1a9ae1cb81de9.png

5AB6A383-D402-4593-84C7-8A306EA74062.thumb.png.e6e1d0c24b37b80ca0b35be00b5803de.png

202F3B37-2F9D-4399-B42B-7AF719E6ABE7.png.69496b84fbb7158794d2a2c55b040d71.png

13EE1A96-015B-4E03-96DC-C1DF1ADB15B9.thumb.png.f83de30738db9adf074fbb5a0306f539.png

587F4806-6973-4E01-A9B8-22F4193A1A71.thumb.png.4d3acbb378f6d97f8d8c49cd0ba1074b.png


 

 

Ring of blue on the geps? Is that even possible?

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4 hours ago, stu said:

Well, there goes the Winter. :P

I got us covered, Stu.  Sold my snowmobiles this morning and got rid of my Vermont camp last year.  It's as iron clad signal for a cold and snowy winter as it gets.

Back in '94 my uncle bought a grizzly sized tracked snowblower on account of the Blizzard of '93.  Halfway through the winter of '94 he complained it didn't snow and paid all this money for it.  I told him that was the best Gottdamn snowblower he ever could have imagined.  Cleared his driveway and everyone else's for hundreds of miles around!!!  He got 25 inches shortly after that in Feb though.  Changed his tune.  

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