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December 2022


dmillz25
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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be fair but cold. A system will then bring warmer conditions and rain for tomorrow night and Saturday before colder air returns to the region.

With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern, colder air intrusions could become more frequent after the first week of December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +16.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.741 today.

On November 29 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.228 (RMM). The November 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.590 (RMM).

 

Good evening Don and thank you for the daily updates. 21 hours into December 1st and the month thread already has 11 pages. Stay well, as always ….

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Just to elaborate a bit. As discussed last month. La nina with a WQBO acts to keep the MJO out of the Pacific and relatively inactive overall. Respectively. But Kelvin waves are different and are not affected by any of that.

So here's the 18z GEFS as a decent example. You can see the constructive interference signal previously mentioned where it gets more amplified. But the signal keeps it moving into the Pacific as well. Right through la nina to boot. Also at a faster pace than the standard MJO would. This is quite a bit different than last year. When we had a real MJO but it was mostly trapped by la nina. Keep in mind, we've done this once already this year. 

20221201_204504.thumb.png.b9fefbf99970559574a0ee6a072165ab.png

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11 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

GFS has a cutter on the 12th and then warms it up after that going into mid December. Probably wrong but you never know.

Long range is very difficult to predict. So often we look 2 weeks down the road and see a potential pattern, but it ends up being much different when it gets closer. That's why I don't get too excited when good patterns are advertised. Good pattens don't always produce too. Our area averages less than 30 inches of snow per winter for a reason. I'll get excited when we have a legitimate winter storm threat at the day 5 range. 

At least it looks likely that we have cold air coming in one week from today, and there should be a good amount of cold air available in December. That will at least give us a decent chance of scoring sometime this month, but it's far from a guarantee. 

Good patterns are recognized in hindsight not foresight. 

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2 hours ago, Rjay said:

I honestly don't see anything to worry about yet.  I said 5 days ago people are going to need to be patient.  I'm still excited for the same period (after the 18th).  

We're a little bit behind schedule for the first trackable wintry threat. We're not really behind in snowfall to date locally, just something tangible to get excited about.

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Just now, eduggs said:

We're a little bit behind schedule for the first trackable wintry threat. We're not really behind in snowfall to date locally, just something tangible to get excited about.

I happen to think the wait could be worth it.  I hate speaking in definites as things just don't work out sometimes for one reason or another. 

With that said, I would be surprised if we escaped this upcoming pattern without something significant to track.  

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I happen to think the wait could be worth it.  I hate speaking in definites as things just don't work out sometimes for one reason or another. 

With that said, I would be surprised if we escaped this upcoming pattern without something significant to track.  

I agree that it will be worth the wait if we can get a good snow event or even string a few decent ones together without a rainer to spoil things.

But I would not be at all surprised if we go through December with little or no snow.

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7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I agree that it will be worth the wait if we can get a good snow event or even string a few decent ones together without a rainer to spoil things.

But I would not be at all surprised if we go through December with little or no snow.

It's a possibility.  

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2 hours ago, Rjay said:

The gefs is a torch.  

Starts looking better by mid month. 

My forum is asleep but notable the 0z Euro op flipped in the S Cali / AZ area and really buried that trough If you look between 12z and 0z (runs ) if you toggle around day 8 and on .  The 850 c changes seemed rather Big -and then some downstream effects 

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4 hours ago, eduggs said:

I agree that it will be worth the wait if we can get a good snow event or even string a few decent ones together without a rainer to spoil things.

But I would not be at all surprised if we go through December with little or no snow.

The last 10 days of December are when winter actually begins and that's when we have our first decent snowfall usually too.

 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My forum is asleep but notable the 0z Euro op flipped in the S Cali / AZ area and really buried that trough If you look between 12z and 0z (runs ) if you toggle around day 8 and on .  The 850 c changes seemed rather Big -and then some downstream effects 

What caused the change?

 

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is slightly further north with the 9-10 storm

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_31.png

Looks like this will get kind of wacky initially under the blocking pattern until it stabilizes. 

GEFS/EPS/GEPS eventually get onboard with a more typical strong -NAO/AO look.

Before that there's this SWFE potential as cold high bleeds in while shortwave ejects. PA gets 6-12" out of it

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16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like this will get kind of wacky initially under the blocking pattern until it stabilizes. 

GEFS/EPS/GEPS eventually get onboard with a more typical strong -NAO/AO look.

Before that there's this SWFE potential as cold high bleeds in while shortwave ejects. PA gets 6-12" out of it

Gfs is much colder than the 0z run in the long range 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and cooler. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 48°

Tomorrow will see some rain, along with noticeably milder temperatures.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 48.4°; 15-Year: 48.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 48.9°; 15-Year: 49.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 50.0°; 15-Year: 50.6°

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This may be the first time we get a 6 sigma Greenland Block with a Southeast Ridge. I believe this is the only  one since December 16,2010. That one was the all-time blocking record for the Northern Hemisphere. The big difference in 2010 was that there was no SE Ridge and it was much colder. So it follows the trend of warmer -NAO patterns.

E9E8F45C-498C-4E54-9F31-2CD3D9078034.thumb.jpeg.ed252108bcd6597f9adda5b389e0e7fe.jpeg

4791ED20-FDB5-4D46-8381-DFA884537FAE.gif.49c36be7dab4d79c7667a32ce64139ad.gif

 

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This may be the first time we get a 6 sigma Greenland Block with a Southeast Ridge. I believe this is the first one since December 16,2010. That one was the all-time blocking record for the Northern Hemisphere. The big difference in 2010 was that there was no SE Ridge and it was much colder. So it follows the trend of warmer -NAO patterns.

E9E8F45C-498C-4E54-9F31-2CD3D9078034.thumb.jpeg.ed252108bcd6597f9adda5b389e0e7fe.jpeg

4791ED20-FDB5-4D46-8381-DFA884537FAE.gif.49c36be7dab4d79c7667a32ce64139ad.gif

 

Looks like the 2010 block was further west into Canada in that snip - perhaps pushing the SE ridge a bit east in 2010.

This might help us avoid suppression in the initial stage.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave back to 11-15 day pac changes hopefully we don’t kick the can so far the block is gone by the time things improve 

I wouldn't worry, not one MET has stated that it will keep getting pushed back, and Forky last night stated that it was always EOM and beyond.

I have a feeling this will work out like Feb 2021. I may not get over 30 in 3 weeks again, but a similar window with opportunities.

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