October 2022

[jm1220]

38 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Finished with 2.95" here.  Updated maps show six day event totals.  Included New England if only to show how poorly models (at least initially) modeled the northern extent of .5-1" QPF.  High pressure and dry air lost the battle for sure.  Initially all the guidance was for the 1" line to just  about maybe make it to the L.I. south shore.  It eventually made it way beyond.  I'd add that the tracks of the mid and upper level low and surface feature would have made for an epic snow dump if this had occurred in late December, Jan or Feb.  Tracks were text book classic.  Coastal sections likely would have gone to mix or rain just because of the winds being constantly onshore and wind direction going from NNE to more easterly near the end of the event but overall if would have been a blockbuster snow event especially inland.  Mid and upper low tracks were exactly what you look for.

Very nice event. But if this was winter the coast would’ve gone to rain. The low was cut off for so long it occluded and milder air, enough for rain would’ve wrapped in from the ocean after long enough. 

[MANDA]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Full effects of the recent rainfall will not be fully reflected in the Drought Monitor until next Thursday issuance.  Data cutoff for this map was 8am this past Tuesday.  As a result the Tuesday and Wednesday rainfall was not factored in.  I would expect most of this forum to just be Abnormally Dry or no classification in the next Thursday release.  Expecting the Moderate Drought and Severe Drought areas will be eliminated.  South shore L.I. could hang on as Moderate?

[forkyfork]

the mjo is driving the bus right now which explains the cold

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

 

 

[weathermedic]

Finished with 4.20 inches at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. More than July, August and September combined.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Very nice event. But if this was winter the coast would’ve gone to rain. The low was cut off for so long it occluded and milder air, enough for rain would’ve wrapped in from the ocean after long enough. 

Yep-Tuesday night the temps went up about 5-6 degrees and the air felt more marine in nature for sure.

[nycwinter]

58 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the mjo is driving the bus right now which explains the cold

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

 

 

wonderful news with sun angle diminishing by the time the pattern changes it will not make much of a difference..

[Superstorm93]

Anyone actually see/hear of any non-coastal flooding reports? 

[BxEngine]

7 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Anyone actually see/hear of any non-coastal flooding reports? 

Nothing of note in Rockland. The usual streams and lakes that tend to overflow were pretty low going in.

[Nibor]

41 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Finished with 4.20 inches at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. More than July, August and September combined.

Nice…

[Superstorm93]

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Nothing of note in Rockland. The usual streams and lakes that tend to overflow were pretty low going in.

Yeah, that's the general answer I'm getting across the entire region. Appreciate it. 

[Intensewind002]

2 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Assuming Lindenhurst? Sounds too low. Jfk and Islip were both over 3 inches. I’m in Seaford at 3.65 on my weatherflow.  I checked a couple weatherflows in your area and they are both over 3 inches. I know they use haptic rain sensors but when they are all pretty close in measurement, I think you can say it’s accurate. 

Alright thanks, it must be an issue with the sensor or something

[nyrangers1022]

What a beautiful day.  Working outside,  then going home to walk the dog.  Warm sun feels great on the skin

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

wonderful news with sun angle diminishing by the time the pattern changes it will not make much of a difference..

We'll see how long it lasts

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the mjo is driving the bus right now which explains the cold

https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/index200reg.html

 

 

also

[winterwx21]

75 degrees here. A spectacular day for outdoor activities.

[FPizz]

12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

75 degrees here. A spectacular day for outdoor activities.

For sure, but it will have to be on pavement as the ground is still mush.

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll see how long it lasts

last month some voices were saying we will have mid 80's into october looks laughable now...those predictions...

[lee59]

6 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

My weather station back home picked up about 1.72”, did the south shore get relatively shafted again?

I believe the rain reports are a total since Saturday when the event began. I picked up 3.72 since Saturday. Maybe you are just looking at one of the days.

[the_other_guy]

4 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Nothing of note in Rockland. The usual streams and lakes that tend to overflow were pretty low going in.

Saw Mill River was a bit high…but nothing close to a flood stage. That sums up inland Westchester

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

I believe the rain reports are a total since Saturday when the event began. I picked up 3.72 since Saturday. Maybe you are just looking at one of the days.

Accounting for all the days, I’m still at 2.36” maybe some leaves are blocking the rain gauge or something, I’ve had that issue happen before. I have fall break this weekend so I’ll have to check when I’m back home

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, FPizz said:

For sure, but it will have to be on pavement as the ground is still mush.

Yeah I went for a run on the pavement today. I'm planning on doing some hiking tomorrow, so hopefully the ground won't be as mushy after all the sunshine.

Made it to 77 here today, and we should hit about that again tomorrow. I love warm weather in october.

 

 

 

[LoboLeader1]

Tapped out at 72 here this afternoon, gorgeous fall day.

[donsutherland1]

Under mainly sunny skies, the temperature rebounded into the lower and middle 70s across the region. Tomorrow will be another warm day. However, the warmth will be short-lived.

A cold front will cross the region, ushering in another cool weekend. All said, the first 10 days of October remain on track to be much cooler than normal. The temperature will likely average 4°-6° below normal during the October 1-10 period.

Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend on the state of blocking and the influence of the cool ENSO Region 1+2 region.

Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Overall, such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

October 1988 was the coldest exception. The closing week of September saw the coldest Region 1+2 anomaly since September 1988. That development increases the probability of a cooler outcome this month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around September 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +25.46 today. The old daily record was +19.72, which was set in 2017.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.464 today.

On October 3 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.685 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.855 (RMM).

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Very nice event. But if this was winter the coast would’ve gone to rain. The low was cut off for so long it occluded and milder air, enough for rain would’ve wrapped in from the ocean after long enough. 

Yeah I turned my heat off Thursday night, it felt awesome.

 

[bluewave]

Strong cold front coming up for the weekend with 70s today falling to the 30s and 40s by Sunday morning.

[IrishRob17]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Strong cold front coming up for the weekend with 70s today falling to the 30s and 40s by Sunday morning.

Could be the first frost of the season up here Sunday morning 

 

[bluewave]

31 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Could be the first frost of the season up here Sunday morning 

 

The Euro the has the next  strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA. 

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has another strong cold front later next week with another opportunity for rain as the summer dry pattern continues to relax. So more cooler fall temperatures behind that front. We may even get a bonus wave break to produce a -NAO to join the -EPO/+PNA.

That’s cross polar flow so we’ll definitely be chilling down. Hope we can get that to happen for the winter. 

Likely our first 30s of the season coming for the north shore. Maybe frost if the wind calms down? 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That’s cross polar flow so we’ll definitely be chilling down. Hope we can get that to happen for the winter. 

Likely our first 30s of the season coming for the north shore. Maybe frost if the wind calms down? 

That North Pacific record warm pool is producing classic October El Niño 500 mb pattern instead of a La Niña. 

 

October El Niño composite

 

 

October La Niña composite

 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  63degs.(56/70) or +2.

Reached 77 here yesterday.

Today:  72-77, wind w. to nw., m. sunny-clouds late, 52 tomorrow AM.

No rain for a week.      Oct. 14-22 BN temps.

60*(83%RH) here at 7am.      63* at 9am.     65* at 11am.      67* at Noon.       70* at 2pm.       73* at 3pm.      74* at 3:30pm.      76* at 4pm.      Reached 77* at 5pm.       62* at 11pm.