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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far.

ISP….+0.7

FRG…+0.7

HPN….+0.3

JFK…..-0.2

NYC…..-1.3

LGA……-1.4

EWR…..-1.9

 

Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2017 51.4 0
2 2022 50.1 3
3 2021 49.9 0
4 1947 48.8 0
5 1968 48.4 0
6 1995 47.8 0
7 2007 47.6 0
8 1963 47.5 0
9 1970 47.4 0
10 2014 47.3 0


 

EA06F01C-8DC7-4596-A260-94FF2F0552EB.thumb.png.f13690ec30891c296b16725e7c4f3951.png
 

170EC061-B17A-4932-A3C6-DF55EE04C90C.gif.cc9411e32be4ed03b542dad73a5b951d.gif

F94A9E6D-EC26-41C6-8678-96C2E904720A.thumb.jpeg.072800e05dbfc9bddc5503255ccc7687.jpeg

Jet fuel for a blizzard

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The last two days of October are averaging  58degs.(51/65) or +5.        The first week of November is averaging  64degs.(58/70) or +13!

Maybe a return to Normal by the 9th/10th:     Nov. 01-09 AN++.     Nov. 10-15 near Normal maybe.

1667088000-a2XLaQD9Znk.png

Month to date is   57.0[-1.3].         October should end at  57.0[-0.9].

Reached 65 here yesterday.

Today:  60-64, wind e. to n. to s., m. sunny, 52 tomorrow AM.

48*(79%RH) here at 7am.    47* at 8am.      50* at 9:30am.       57* at Noon.      Reached 62* at 4pm.        59* at 6pm.

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Morning thoughts…

After a frosty start in many parts of the region, today will be partly sunny and warmer. High temperatures will reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 65°

Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 59.6°; 15-Year: 59.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.0°; 15-Year: 62.0°

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18 hours ago, psv88 said:

37 this morning.

no freeze here yet, lowest to date was 34. With the next 2 weeks looking like a torch, our first freeze will be later than normal out here. Usually we have a first freeze around 11/1

Welp, this post did not age well.

31.7 this morning, but growing season probably continues. 

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1 hour ago, Dan76 said:

Looks like a clipper on the GFS lala land 

Once the pattern does flip to a colder one we probably will see many many clippers this season. I do think we'll be switching winter on and off abruptly and regularly with some very cold weeks but mostly near to above normal temperatures at other times. Odds are the cold episodes will be mainly dry but I cannot rule out a couple of cold fronts stalling out nearby and some snow as waves of low pressure move along them to our south. This sort of thing probably more the exception than the rule. I like analogs 1975-76, 2001-02, maybe 1964-65 or 1965-66. less-so 1988-89.

WX/PT

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1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Once the pattern does flip to a colder one we probably will see many many clippers this season. I do think we'll be switching winter on and off abruptly and regularly with some very cold weeks but mostly near to above normal temperatures at other times. Odds are the cold episodes will be mainly dry but I cannot rule out a couple of cold fronts stalling out nearby and some snow as waves of low pressure move along them to our south. This sort of thing probably more the exception than the rule. I like analogs 1975-76, 2001-02, maybe 1964-65 or 1965-66. less-so 1988-89.

WX/PT

01-02 and 75-76 would be downers for sure...

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This morning saw widespread readings in the 20s and 30s across the region, along with thick frost in many of the colder areas. Low temperatures included:

Albany: 29°
Allentown: 28°
Binghamton: 30°
Boston: 39°
Bridgeport: 36°
Danbury: 28°
Islip: 36°
Hartford: 28°
New Haven: 34°
New York City: 43°
Newark: 37°
Philadelphia: 40°
Poughkeepsie: 26°
Providence: 32°
Scranton: 30°
Westhampton: 28°
White Plains: 34°

Afterward, temperatures warmed into the lower and even middle 60s. After a milder night, the warmup will continue tomorrow.

The first week of November will likely be much warmer than normal. The potential exists for the first week to see a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with such warmth during the first week of November: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average). Overall, November will likely be warmer than normal.

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +18.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.548 today.

On October 28 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.310 (RMM). The October 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.728 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.8° (1.1° below normal).

 

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

01-02 and 75-76 would be downers for sure...

The analog idea does not mean that in the season being forecast/discussed the analog year's snowfall is identical. It's more that the overall pattern would be similar. And you know how many situations pop up in any season when a difference of 30-100 miles can be the the difference between no snow and a foot of snow. But yes, 01-02 and 75-76 were not good.

WX/PT 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and warm. Some showers are likely late in the day or at night. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 68°

Unseasonably warm weather will continue through the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 59.2°; 15-Year: 59.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 60.5°; 15-Year: 61.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 61.6°

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The last day of October is averaging  61degs.(55/67) or +8.        The first 9 days of November are averaging  65degs.(59/72) or +14!      CFSv2 goes the mirror image of this hot start by mid-month.         Other LR outlooks not as optimistically cold.

1667174400-s5Gsl7iZCII.png

Month to date is  56.9[-1.2].          October will end at  57.0[-0.9].        

Reached 62 here yesterday.

Today:  64-68, wind n. to w., cloudy, some rain by midnight, 59 tomorrow AM.

54*(90%RH) here at 7am.      56* at 8am.       61* at Noon.     Reached  64* at 2pm.        61* at 6pm.

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7 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last day of October is averaging  61degs.(55/67) or +8.        The first 9 days of November are averaging  65degs.(59/72) or +14!      CFSv2 goes the mirror image of this hot start by mid-month.         Other LR outlooks not as optimistically cold.

1667174400-s5Gsl7iZCII.png

Month to date is  56.9[-1.2].          October will end at  57.0[-0.9].        

Reached 62 here yesterday.

Today:  64-68, wind n. to w., cloudy, some rain by midnight, 59 tomorrow AM.

54*(90%RH) here at 7am.      56* at 8am.       61* at Noon.      64* at 2pm. 

You ever notice that these GFS forecasts you post are always 5 degrees too warm? :)

 

 

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9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

You ever notice that these GFS forecasts you post are always 5 degrees too warm? :)

 

 

Yup. Unless there is a blend of guidance these stats are pretty useless.

Cfs looks good for December. Eps heading in that direction. Not holding my breath but hopefully we can get a decent December this year. We are due

image.thumb.png.dcf88116627e065b8fc6e7088dad1866.png

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WS G3, and a look back at ensembles for Oct 30-Nov 5-6.

Rain may play a role in tonights outcome in PHL. 

EPS was way too wet for this week (GEFS driest and possibly best). Tonights rain probably 0.1-0.8", topped off with possible convection early Tue afternoon which might have a small hailer. Next weekend probably 500MB ridge protective dry and warm though still a chance for a Sunday break down (6th).

 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

WS G3, and a look back at ensembles for Oct 30-Nov 5-6.

Rain may play a role in tonights outcome in PHL. 

EPS was way too wet for this week (GEFS driest and possibly best). Tonights rain probably 0.1-0.8", topped off with possible convection early Tue afternoon which might have a small hailer. Next weekend probably 500MB ridge protective dry and warm though still a chance for a Sunday break down (6th).

 

G3 postponed ~7P, one day to Tue night 803P.  Significant rainfall and timing of same, makes a difference. 

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October is now concluding. New York City's Central Park had a mean monthly temperature of 56.8°, which was 1.1° below normal. A warmer than normal November appears likely.

Some showers are likely overnight. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and warm. Some additional showers are possible.

The first week of November will likely be much warmer than normal. Many parts of the region could see among their 10 warmest November 1-7 periods on record.

The potential exists for the first week to see a mean temperature of 60.0° or above in New York City. Since 1869, there have been just 7 prior years with such warmth during the first week of November: 1938, 1961, 1974, 1975, 1994, 2003, and 2015. All of those cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal November with a mean monthly temperature of 50.3° (lowest: 48.2°, 1974; highest: 52.8°, 2015). On a standardized basis, 6/7 (86%) cases were 0.5 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 49.4° average for the most recent 30-year period) and 4/7 (57%) were 1.0 sigma or more above the 30-year moving average (implied 51.0° average for the most recent 30-year moving average).

There was no clear seasonal snowfall outcome following such a warm start to November. Four cases saw less than 20" of seasonal snowfall (1961-1962, 1974-1975, 1975-1976, and 1994-1995); three cases saw more than 30" of seasonal snowfall (1938-1939, 2003-2004, and 2015-2016). The lowest seasonal snowfall occurred in 1994-95 when 11.8" fell. The highest amount was 42.6" in 2003-2004.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around October 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +26.75 today. The old record of +23.04 was set in 2003.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.587 today.

On October 29 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.404 (RMM). The October 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.312 (RMM).

 

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