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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Too muggy

I agree!  I'm glad it stayed solidly overcast here today with some drizzle at times.  No use to m/u 70's and humidity at this time of year.  I'm already concerned November is going to be warmer than normal.  The last 4-5 weeks have been really nice!

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Morning fog lifted and the clouds broke for a time. As a result, the mercury rose into the 70s in many parts of the region this afternoon. Highs included:

Islip: 75°
New York City-Central Park: 70°
New York City-JFK: 73°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 70°

Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy and warm day following some fog and drizzle.

With the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures.

November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +12.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.558 today.

On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.860 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.536 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.1° (0.8° below normal).

 

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13 hours ago, MANDA said:

I agree!  I'm glad it stayed solidly overcast here today with some drizzle at times.  No use to m/u 70's and humidity at this time of year.  I'm already concerned November is going to be warmer than normal.  The last 4-5 weeks have been really nice!

nothing beats the sun!

 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The latest ECMWF weekly forecast suggests that the New York City area will see temperatures run 3°C-6°C (5.4°F-10.8°F) above normal during the first week of November. Such warmth has typically indicated a warmer than normal November.Parts of E. Canada will be even warmer.

image.jpeg.0b722b65b5bb0e54d91ea28fd290d4fc.jpeg

 

with all this warmth how is it that October will end up below normal?  October wasn't that cold (we didn't have any temps below 40)

 

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10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning fog lifted and the clouds broke for a time. As a result, the mercury rose into the 70s in many parts of the region this afternoon. Highs included:

Islip: 75°
New York City-Central Park: 70°
New York City-JFK: 73°
Newark: 73°
Philadelphia: 70°

Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy and warm day following some fog and drizzle.

With the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures.

November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +12.44 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.558 today.

On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.860 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.536 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.1° (0.8° below normal).

 

Don, how warm did Farmingdale, KFRG get?

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with some early fog and drizzle. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 71°

Cooler air could return late in the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 63.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.4°; 15-Year: 63.6°

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy with some early fog and drizzle. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 71°

Cooler air could return late in the week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 61.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 62.3°; 15-Year: 63.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 63.4°; 15-Year: 63.6°

the sun is out here!

 

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Just missed the record high at Islip at 75°. This late month warmth brings the departure up to 0.0. So the record SST warmth east of New England is keeping coastal sections warmer this month. 

 

10/25 76 in 2001 76 in 1963 75 in 2022


 

9C42EDD7-D0F2-4834-8E7B-268CF8D53668.thumb.png.fd657b122abd831ee9229e74f0cad298.png

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just missed the record high at Islip at 75°. This late month warmth brings the departure up to 0.0. So the record SST warmth east of New England is keeping coastal sections warmer this month. 

 

10/25 76 in 2001 76 in 1963 75 in 2022


 

9C42EDD7-D0F2-4834-8E7B-268CF8D53668.thumb.png.fd657b122abd831ee9229e74f0cad298.png

Was the 78 at KFRG a record?

I see the record at NYC is 79

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was the 78 at KFRG a record?

I see the record at NYC is 79

Yes. It brings Farmingdale to -0.1 for October. So much warmer conditions this month at the coast. A reversal from the summer when NJ had the warmer departures.
 

Almanac for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
October 25, 2022
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 78 61 78 in 2022 51 in 2018
Min Temperature 64 45 64 in 2022 32 in 2003
Avg Temperature 71.0 52.8 71.0 in 2022 45.0 in 2018
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So the past 24 hours so the dribble but the 1+ axis occurred about 80-90 miles east of where multiple models (00z-06z/25 HRRR, EC/UK, SPC HREF) indicated.  Model bust on location.

I day dribble totals and 3 day totals attached from CoCoRaHs obs through 9A Wed 10/26/22. Click for clarity if you wish. These beneficial rains can only mitigate the residuals of the summer drought. Drought monitor updates Thursday morning.

Next week... I think it continues on the table for above normal rainfall Monday-Saturday via one or 2 events.  It's possible I may need to add a day on the back end (next Sunday Nov 6) but for now, I continue with what EPS/GEPS ensembles have been implying.  I wish the GEFS was on board but so far NOT.

Screen Shot 2022-10-26 at 9.18.36 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-26 at 9.16.31 AM.png

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The last 6 days of October are averaging  58degs.(53/62) or +5.

Month to date is  57.1[-1.9].         October should end at  57.2[-0.7].

Reached 71 here yesterday.

Today:  67-71, wind n. to w., cloudy, fog early, 57 tomorrow AM.

Still all AN for the GFS:     Except for the CFS  there is no hope for the next 30 days to average BN.       Looks wet Nov. 02-12 then dry and potentially some BN days till end of November.(not shown)

1666764000-p0zBA3bn6pM.png

64*(99%RH) here at 7am, FOG <0.2mi.        66* at 9am, fog lifting.       69* at Noon.      Reached  70* at 3pm---but fog ready to come back in.    65* at 5pm-FOG <0.2mi.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yes. It brings Farmingdale to -0.1 for October. So much warmer conditions this month at the coast. A reversal from the summer when NJ had the warmer departures.
 

Almanac for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
October 25, 2022
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 78 61 78 in 2022 51 in 2018
Min Temperature 64 45 64 in 2022 32 in 2003
Avg Temperature 71.0 52.8 71.0 in 2022 45.0 in 2018

Was it 77 or 78. Farmingdale airport on Wunderground says yesterday high was 77. Not that it really makes much difference. :)

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yes. It brings Farmingdale to -0.1 for October. So much warmer conditions this month at the coast. A reversal from the summer when NJ had the warmer departures.
 

Almanac for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
October 25, 2022
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature 78 61 78 in 2022 51 in 2018
Min Temperature 64 45 64 in 2022 32 in 2003
Avg Temperature 71.0 52.8 71.0 in 2022 45.0 in 2018

Around normal back here near JFK too?

 

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