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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Our locals like Lee Goldberg explained that enso only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather.  He compared how different the 20-21 and 21-22 la ninas were from each other.

 

Right. La Nina comes in different forms. In our area I’ll take it over an El Nino anyday

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The last 7 days of October are averaging  58degs.(53/63) or +4.

Month to date is  56.7[-2.5].         October should end at  57.0[-0.9].

Reached 61 yesterday.

Today:  66-70, wind e. to ne., fog till 10am, cloudy, drizzle, 64 tomorrow AM.

GFS is AN all the way:       Shades of Nov. 2020?     8 straight days with highs of 67 to 75 early in the month.      First 10 days of November are weighing in at  61{57/65} or +10!

1666677600-F0CPvowL2KE.png

63*(99%RH) here at 7am-FOG <0.2mi.     64* at 8am.      65* at 9pm.      68* at 11pm-FOG still here.       70* at 3pm-fog lifted by 2pm.    Reached 71* at 3:15am.       70* at 5pm and Fog back in.

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The cooler October transitioning to a warmer November is more of a feature that we see with El Niños. So the record warmth in the North Pacific is creating more of an El Niño type influence. Probably another winter with competing influences rather than a strict ENSO interpretation. 
 

D4AF26E9-B68C-406A-9496-6D4A60E25868.thumb.png.30c07acd405a28d6f44b7a10bdbe92ef.png

6AD65CBA-5FA8-43F3-85AA-41A942E38C58.thumb.png.8c298f4ee2438d6711a5a463d02ee8bb.png

ADC9F58A-D8B0-498E-B522-3F092382B435.thumb.png.9d84bde313e7c76b99576762a00cbb89.png

379A6756-1873-42C9-AC56-0E40D27F36F6.thumb.png.24ad2f55f552a85a53d76a7360627d62.png

 

6E68F688-2A83-4626-A551-8EA0EAA15D14.png.d6f1695e2d4510f95fad7e65706ed32f.png

1E261E14-6CB7-49DC-9DDC-EE8AD4E940AD.png.6386563f2785100db18f40a5639bbd5a.png

 

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The cooler October transitioning to a warmer November is more of a feature that we see with El Niños. So the record warmth in the North Pacific is creating more of an El Niño type influence. Probably another winter with competing influences rather than a strict ENSO interpretation. 
 

D4AF26E9-B68C-406A-9496-6D4A60E25868.thumb.png.30c07acd405a28d6f44b7a10bdbe92ef.png

6AD65CBA-5FA8-43F3-85AA-41A942E38C58.thumb.png.8c298f4ee2438d6711a5a463d02ee8bb.png

ADC9F58A-D8B0-498E-B522-3F092382B435.thumb.png.9d84bde313e7c76b99576762a00cbb89.png

379A6756-1873-42C9-AC56-0E40D27F36F6.thumb.png.24ad2f55f552a85a53d76a7360627d62.png

 

6E68F688-2A83-4626-A551-8EA0EAA15D14.png.d6f1695e2d4510f95fad7e65706ed32f.png

1E261E14-6CB7-49DC-9DDC-EE8AD4E940AD.png.6386563f2785100db18f40a5639bbd5a.png

 

Might be more like a 2020-21 kind of winter.

ENSO only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather after all.

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Back to now: CoCoRaHs 24 hours rainfall through 9A this morning, and the last image is the two day. Please click for clarity if interested. Noting several near 1.8" in our area, with near the CT RRV 2-2.6", so far.

Periods of low top dribble today, looking like a T-0.1" today (9A-9P). the PW increases above 1.5" for much of LI/CT tonight as unstable PWAT arrives from the southeast and TT grows to near 50 (EC).  Thinking we will see corridors of mdt-possible heavy showers invade from the south tonight with most areas T-0.1, but LI/CT could see a narrow band of near 1" between 9P tonight and 9A Wednesday (Isolated embedded thunder?).

More dribble Wed afternoon-evening

DRY Thursday-most of Sunday, then we'll see how it evolves for next Mon[Halloween]-Sat Nov 5 when EPS-GEPS continue above normal qpf (not as bold as earlier days but still decidedly favoring 1 or 2 good sized wet events next week)

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-25 at 9.05.56 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-25 at 9.06.24 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-25 at 9.08.38 AM.png

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19 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Back to now: CoCoRaHs 24 hours rainfall through 9A this morning, and the last image is the two day. Please click for clarity if interested. Noting several near 1.8" in our area, with near the CT RRV 2-2.6", so far.

Periods of low top dribble today, looking like a T-0.1" today (9A-9P). the PW increases above 1.5" for much of LI/CT tonight as unstable PWAT arrives from the southeast and TT grows to near 50 (EC).  Thinking we will see corridors of mdt-possible heavy showers invade from the south tonight with most areas T-0.1, but LI/CT could see a narrow band of near 1" between 9P tonight and 9A Wednesday (Isolated embedded thunder?).

More dribble Wed afternoon-evening

DRY Thursday-most of Sunday, then we'll see how it evolves for next Mon[Halloween]-Sat Nov 5 when EPS-GEPS continue above normal qpf (not as bold as earlier days but still decidedly favoring 1 or 2 good sized wet events next week)

 

Screen Shot 2022-10-25 at 9.05.56 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-25 at 9.06.24 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-10-25 at 9.08.38 AM.png

Walt, I was hoping you'd have more sunshine in the forecast lol.  I hate these inconsequential tropical lows that gum up the works and slow everything down.

 

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd rather that wait until December, a mild November followed by a cold December is a really good sign for winter isn't it?  I wonder if October will finish right near normal?

 

October will be 0.5-1.5 degrees below normal across the area. There’s a stronger correlation between December and seasonal snowfall than temperatures. 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Might be more like a 2020-21 kind of winter.

ENSO only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather after all.

Warmer winters have become the norm since the super El Niño in 15-16. Overall La Niña background state with a strong WAR and SE ridge. Intervals of Atlantic and Pacific blocking were more dominant in the snowier seasons.

 

0DC338CA-7BF5-416C-81FE-A96758485F00.png.07217b1a8c5413f3779a53adaeed2580.png

 

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow I wonder if anyone around here hits 80.

I see there are widespread 80s to our west, I was wondering if that would get here if the sun broke out.

 

Hit 80 on Northern State Parkway in Westbury/Carle Place, Long Island area around 1:30 pm--at least according to my car.  Feels like an August day

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