FPizz Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Up to .95" total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 The last 7 days of October are averaging 58degs.(53/63) or +4. Month to date is 56.7[-2.5]. October should end at 57.0[-0.9]. Reached 61 yesterday. Today: 66-70, wind e. to ne., fog till 10am, cloudy, drizzle, 64 tomorrow AM. GFS is AN all the way: Shades of Nov. 2020? 8 straight days with highs of 67 to 75 early in the month. First 10 days of November are weighing in at 61{57/65} or +10! 63*(99%RH) here at 7am-FOG <0.2mi. 64* at 8am. 65* at 9pm. 68* at 11pm-FOG still here. 70* at 3pm-fog lifted by 2pm. Reached 71* at 3:15am. 70* at 5pm and Fog back in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: That’s the way it currently looks. Whether it turns colder late in the month remains to be seen. Might get help to flip to cold with this recurving typhoon in a few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 The cooler October transitioning to a warmer November is more of a feature that we see with El Niños. So the record warmth in the North Pacific is creating more of an El Niño type influence. Probably another winter with competing influences rather than a strict ENSO interpretation. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 1.01" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The cooler October transitioning to a warmer November is more of a feature that we see with El Niños. So the record warmth in the North Pacific is creating more of an El Niño type influence. Probably another winter with competing influences rather than a strict ENSO interpretation. Might be more like a 2020-21 kind of winter. ENSO only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 With the price of heating oil I'd really rather see a warm winter this time around. Sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 some drier air punching NW-looks like parts of LI have breaks of sun? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Back to now: CoCoRaHs 24 hours rainfall through 9A this morning, and the last image is the two day. Please click for clarity if interested. Noting several near 1.8" in our area, with near the CT RRV 2-2.6", so far. Periods of low top dribble today, looking like a T-0.1" today (9A-9P). the PW increases above 1.5" for much of LI/CT tonight as unstable PWAT arrives from the southeast and TT grows to near 50 (EC). Thinking we will see corridors of mdt-possible heavy showers invade from the south tonight with most areas T-0.1, but LI/CT could see a narrow band of near 1" between 9P tonight and 9A Wednesday (Isolated embedded thunder?). More dribble Wed afternoon-evening DRY Thursday-most of Sunday, then we'll see how it evolves for next Mon[Halloween]-Sat Nov 5 when EPS-GEPS continue above normal qpf (not as bold as earlier days but still decidedly favoring 1 or 2 good sized wet events next week) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, wdrag said: Back to now: CoCoRaHs 24 hours rainfall through 9A this morning, and the last image is the two day. Please click for clarity if interested. Noting several near 1.8" in our area, with near the CT RRV 2-2.6", so far. Periods of low top dribble today, looking like a T-0.1" today (9A-9P). the PW increases above 1.5" for much of LI/CT tonight as unstable PWAT arrives from the southeast and TT grows to near 50 (EC). Thinking we will see corridors of mdt-possible heavy showers invade from the south tonight with most areas T-0.1, but LI/CT could see a narrow band of near 1" between 9P tonight and 9A Wednesday (Isolated embedded thunder?). More dribble Wed afternoon-evening DRY Thursday-most of Sunday, then we'll see how it evolves for next Mon[Halloween]-Sat Nov 5 when EPS-GEPS continue above normal qpf (not as bold as earlier days but still decidedly favoring 1 or 2 good sized wet events next week) Walt, I was hoping you'd have more sunshine in the forecast lol. I hate these inconsequential tropical lows that gum up the works and slow everything down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 70 and Sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I'd rather that wait until December, a mild November followed by a cold December is a really good sign for winter isn't it? I wonder if October will finish right near normal? October will be 0.5-1.5 degrees below normal across the area. There’s a stronger correlation between December and seasonal snowfall than temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 1 hour ago, uofmiami said: Might get help to flip to cold with this recurving typhoon in a few weeks. It could. Merbok likely altered the pattern leading to 3-4 weeks of generally below normal temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: 70 and Sunny I wish we'd get that here, still socked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Might be more like a 2020-21 kind of winter. ENSO only has a 15-20 percent influence on our weather after all. Warmer winters have become the norm since the super El Niño in 15-16. Overall La Niña background state with a strong WAR and SE ridge. Intervals of Atlantic and Pacific blocking were more dominant in the snowier seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 72 and sunny here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Trash drizzle the past 24 hours. At least it's warm to make it a bit more bearable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Turning out to be a warm day. Busted mostly cloudy forecast. I'm in Hauppauge. Sunny and 74 according to the closest WU PWS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 76 right now, maxed at 77 FRG hit 78, 79 on Mesowest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Sun's out. Getting absolutely beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 57 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: 76 right now, maxed at 77 FRG hit 78, 79 on Mesowest I got my wish-- it's been sunny for hours here. But the humidity is high so it feels like a sauna lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 58 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: 76 right now, maxed at 77 FRG hit 78, 79 on Mesowest Wow I wonder if anyone around here hits 80. I see there are widespread 80s to our west, I was wondering if that would get here if the sun broke out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Topped out at 78, down to 74. Perfect day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow I wonder if anyone around here hits 80. I see there are widespread 80s to our west, I was wondering if that would get here if the sun broke out. Hit 80 on Northern State Parkway in Westbury/Carle Place, Long Island area around 1:30 pm--at least according to my car. Feels like an August day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 26 minutes ago, Cfa said: Topped out at 78, down to 74. Perfect day. Too muggy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Too muggy I agree! I'm glad it stayed solidly overcast here today with some drizzle at times. No use to m/u 70's and humidity at this time of year. I'm already concerned November is going to be warmer than normal. The last 4-5 weeks have been really nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Been in heavy mist for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Actually turned on the AC to push down the humidity 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 75 here today and mostly sunny. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Morning fog lifted and the clouds broke for a time. As a result, the mercury rose into the 70s in many parts of the region this afternoon. Highs included: Islip: 75° New York City-Central Park: 70° New York City-JFK: 73° Newark: 73° Philadelphia: 70° Tomorrow will be another variably cloudy and warm day following some fog and drizzle. With the MJO in Phase 6 at a high amplitude and the Arctic Oscillation forecast to be positive for the closing week of the month, the closing week of October could feature above to much above normal temperatures. November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall. The SOI was +12.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.558 today. On October 23 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.860 (RMM). The October 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.536 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.1° (0.8° below normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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