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5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This has been the best foliage in years and a combo of mild weather & lack of major windstorms should keep it going for some time. 

There's some kind of ground growth that's fiery red already.  I wonder what it is.  It looks like some kind of ground growing vine that's also made it up onto fences.


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A few notes:

So we had Wednesday show up with some junky weather, including bit of rain-drizzle, minor... CoCoRaHs attached. Also attached the 4 day totals. You'll note amounts on one day do not up on a subsequent day. I think that is in part due to lack of data from the CoCoRaHs observer (inconsistent daily reporting or a programming problem).  So beneficial amounts were observed but no 4" in our area. The beneficial amounts translated into the drought monitor attached and you can see slow drought shrinkage between the weeks reports of the Oct 25 left and Oct 18 right.  Finally NYC reservoir info started reporting again and now about 3% below normal (attached), a vast improvement from 6-8 weeks ago.

The future: Rain late Sunday and Monday in bands. Then how soon does it go away.  Does it linger a bit for Tue? Thereafter next weekend (11/5-6): jury out in the midst of the big ridge aloft. Still may need to contend with a frontal boundary in the area and possible RRQ of upper level jet - overrunning from the weakening midwest trough?


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A cold front moved across the region earlier today. In its wake, slightly cooler air moved into the region. Overnight, it will turn much cooler.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and cool. Temperatures will stay in the 50s in most of the region. The weekend will also begin with cooler than normal readings but temperatures will be moderating by Sunday. Unseasonable warmth will return early next week.

November could begin with warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +21.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.082 today.

On October 25 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.839 (RMM). The October 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.887 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.9° (1.0° below normal).


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19 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I think the winter may turn out like 1974-75, the current situation is similar, after a generally cold early October it turned very mild late in the month, hit 80 on Nov 1st and then stayed dull but mild all through Nov-Dec, January  1975 quite mild too, February mild with heavy rainfalls, March turned colder with some below normal intervals, and the first half of April 1975 was unusually cold with a big snowstorm across the Great Lakes that was the latest real blizzard I experienced in my years living in Ontario. Then May 1975 turned scorching hot and very dry.

That sort of winter can open up a few brief intervals for a coastal event of some kind, I can vaguely recall a snowfall over eastern Ontario and southern Quebec that was heavy but melted right away in Dec 1974 but in the Toronto area that missed and the month was generally snow-free.

By the way, Don you'll be interested in this, as you probably know, the huge positive temperature anomalies run up over this western region (WA, BC) suddenly switched sign a few days ago and we are eroding that near-record value down towards maybe +4F outcomes, it has been cold enough for snow in my area all week, although we only got a brief dump that has melted. But with that unusual warmth, we are still left with a lot of leaf cover locally and the fall colors are quite vibrant, normally this would end mid-October with winds and rain that we just haven't seen at all so far this month (inland, they have seen rain on the coast). 

There was one moderate snowstorm in the region on 2/12/75.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 57°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 61°

Tomorrow will e noticeably cooler.


New York City: 30-Year: 60.2°; 15-Year: 60.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 61.6°; 15-Year: 62.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 62.7°; 15-Year: 62.8°

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The last 5 days of October are averaging  55degs.(50/61) or +2.

Month to date is  57.5[-1.1].         October should end at  57.2[-0.7].

Reached 66 here yesterday.

Today:   55-58, wind e., scattered clouds, 52 tomorrow AM.

While officially the odds say that this year you only have to risk $1.38 to win $1.00---if you want to bet on an AN Winter---compared to last year's $4.25 to win $1.00---in other words while AN is still the most likely outcome---it is 3X less certain this season.      No evidence of a BN avalanche yet here:


47*(65%RH) here at 7am.        49* at 9am.        53* at 11am.       56* at Noon.      59* at 1pm.        61*  at 3pm.     Reached 62* at 4pm.       55* at 9pm.

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